Would-Be Worlds: How Simulation Is Changing the Frontiers of Science

by John L. Casti

Critical acclaim for John Casti's previous book "Five Golden Rules is caviar for the inquiring reader. Anyone who enjoyed solving math problems in high school will be able to follow the author's explanations, even if high school was a long time ago. There is joy here in watching the unfolding of these intricate and beautiful techniques. Casti's gift is to be able to let the nonmathematical reader share in his understanding of the beauty of a good theory."--Christian Science Monitor"[Five Golden Rules] ranges into exotic fields such as game theory (which played a role in the Cuban Missile Crisis) and topology (which explains how to turn a doughnut into a coffee cup, or vice versa). If you'd like to have fun while giving your brain a first-class workout, then check this book out."--San Francisco Examiner"Unlike many popularizations, [this book] is more than a tour d' it has the power to change the way you think. Merely knowing about the existence of some of these golden rules may spark new, interesting--maybe even revolutionary--ideas in your mind. And what more could you ask from a book?"--New Scientist"This book has meat! It is solid fare, food for thought . . . makes math less forbidding, and much more interesting."--Ben Bova, The Hartford Courant"This book turns math into beauty."--Colorado Daily"John Casti is one of the great science writers of the 1990s."--San Francisco ExaminerIn the ever-changing world of science, new instruments often lead to momentous discoveries that dramatically transform our understanding. Today, with the aid of a bold new instrument, scientists are embarking on a scientific revolution as profound as that inspired by Galileo's telescope. Out of the bits and bytes of computer memory, researchers are fashioning silicon surrogates of the real world--elaborate "artificial worlds"--that allow them to perform experiments that are too impractical, too costly, or, in some cases, too dangerous to do "in the flesh."From simulated tests of new drugs to models of the birth of planetary systems and galaxies to computerized petri dishes growing digital life forms, these laboratories of the future are the essential tools of a controversial new scientific method. This new method is founded not on direct observation and experiment but on the mapping of the universe from real space into cyberspace. There is a whole new science happening here--the science of simulation.The most exciting territory being mapped by artificial worlds is the exotic new frontier of "complex, adaptive systems." These systems involve living "agents" that continuously change their behavior in ways that make prediction and measurement by the old rules of science impossible--from environmental ecosystems to the system of a marketplace economy. Their exploration represents the horizon for discovery in the twenty-first century, and simulated worlds are charting the course.In Would-Be Worlds, acclaimed author John Casti takes readers on a fascinating excursion through a number of remarkable silicon microworlds and shows us how they are being used to formulate important new theories and to solve a host of practical problems. We visit Tierra, a "computerized terrarium" in which artificial life forms known as biomorphs grow and mutate, revealing new insights into natural selection and evolution. We play a game of Balance of Power, a simulation of the complex forces shaping geopolitics. And we take a drive through TRANSIMS, a model of the city of Albuquerque, New Mexico, to discover the root causes of events like traffic jams and accidents.Along the way, Casti probes the answers to a host of profound questions these "would-be worlds" raise about the new science of simulation. If we can create worlds inside our computers at will, how real can we say they are? Will they unlock the most intractable secrets of our universe? Or will they reveal instead only the laws of an alternate reality? How "real" do these models need to be? And how real can they be? The answers to these questions are likely to change the face of scientific research forever.

Genres: Science

242 pages, Hardcover

First published September 28, 1996

About the author

John L. Casti (born 1943) is an author, mathematician, and entrepreneur.

As a mathematician and researcher, Casti received his Ph.D. under Richard Bellman at the University of Southern California. He worked at the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica, CA, and served on the faculties of the University of Arizona, New York University and Princeton University, before moving to Vienna in 1973 to become one of the first members of the research staff at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg, Austria. In 1986, he left IIASA to take up a position as a Professor of Operations Research and System Theory at the Technical University of Vienna. He also served as a member of the External Faculty of the Santa Fe Institute in Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA, from 1992-2002, where he worked extensively on the application of biological metaphors to the mathematical modeling of problems in economics, finance and road-traffic networks, as well as on large-scale computer simulations for the study of such networks.

His primary research interests have shifted somewhat in recent years from the natural sciences to the exploration of questions in the social and behavioral realm. One thread has been exploration of the relationship between the social "mood" of a population its biasing effect on actions and behaviors. In this direction, his 2010 book, Mood Matters: From Rising Skirt Lengths to the Collapse of World Powers, published by Copernicus Books, NY, addresses the directions and patterns of social causation and their implications for future trends and collective social events, such as styles in popular culture, the outcome of political processes, and even the rise and fall of civilizations. His most recent book is X-EVENTS: The Collapse of Everything, which addresses the underlying cause of extreme events generated by human inattention, misunderstanding, error, stupidity and/or malevolent intent. The English original edition was published in June 2012 by HarperCollins/Morrow, New York. The book now exists in 15 foreign editions, as well, including German, Japanese, Russian, Dutch, Korean and Portuguese.

As an entrepreneur, Casti formed two companies in Santa Fe and London in 2000, Qforma, Inc. and SimWorld, Ltd, respectively, devoted to the employment of tools and concepts from modern system theory for the solution of problems in business and finance, as well as health care. Qforma merged with SkilaMederi in June 2013. In early 2005 he returned to Vienna where he co-founded The Kenos Circle, a professional society that aims to make use of complexity science in order to gain a deeper insight into the future than that offered by more conventional statistical tools.

For several years, Professor Casti was a Senior Research Scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria, where he created an initiative for the study on Extreme Events in Human Society. In January 2012 he left IIASA to form a new research institute in Vienna, The X-Center, devoted to the study of human-caused extreme events. The X-Center has now expanded to a network of affiliated X-Centers in Helsinki, Tokyo, Seoul, New York and Singapore. Since early 2013, Dr. Casti has been serving as a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Complex Systems and Enterprises at the Stevens Institute of Technology in the USA.

As an author, Casti has written more than 120 scientific articles and seven technical monographs and textbooks on mathematical modeling. In addition, he was formerly editor of the journals Applied Mathematics & Computation (Elsevier, New York) and Complexity (Wiley, New York). In 1989 his text/reference works Alternate Realities: Mathematical Models of Nature and Man (Wiley, 1989) was awarded a prize by the Association of American Publishers in a competition among all scholarly books published in mathematics and the natural sciences. In 1992, he also published Reality Rules (Wiley, New York), a t

Reviews

[mono · Rating 2 out of 5]

This book walks through some interesting examples of simulations, but provides nothing in the way of enlightenment. To paraphrase the books introduction, Would'be Worlds is about why we're no closer to any decent theory of complex systems.

[Leonardo]

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