Morris Fiorina has written a bundle of provocative books that get one to thinking about the political system. This one focuses, using election data through the 1970s, on why people vote as they do. He argues for a notion that he calls "retrospective voting." In short, what have you done for me (reasonably) lately? Voters, thus, reward good performance by a party by voting for the party in power (normally, the President's party); if recent times have not been so good, "throw the rascals out." Plenty of data appear in this book.
Obviously, there are other factors at work (e.g., one's party identification). Still, the idea of retrospective voting makes sernse, and we continue to see some signs of its influence (e.g., the turning out of many Democrats in the 2010 midterm elections).
It's a little long of tooth, but still not a bad work.