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Futurehype: The Tyranny of Prophecy
In this powerful and illuminating book, Max Dublin tears aside the curtain of prophecy that is controlling our lives and is limiting our choices for the future, and outlines some of the ways we can maximize the opportunities for the present and adjust to the challenges of the future.
Contents
Prologue: The power of prophesy
1. Prophecy as propaganda
2. The psychology of futurology
3. The ideology of futurology
4. Futurehype in the military
5. Futurehype in education
6. Futurehype in health
7. Futurehype about the environment
8. Truth and politics in debates about the future
Epilogue: Eros and planning: The ant and the grasshopper retold
Index
Contents
Prologue: The power of prophesy
1. Prophecy as propaganda
2. The psychology of futurology
3. The ideology of futurology
4. Futurehype in the military
5. Futurehype in education
6. Futurehype in health
7. Futurehype about the environment
8. Truth and politics in debates about the future
Epilogue: Eros and planning: The ant and the grasshopper retold
Index
- GenresSociology
304 pages, Paperback
First published January 1, 1989
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Displaying 1 - 3 of 3 reviews
June 7, 2023
A SKEPICAL PERSPECTIVE ON PREDICTIONS ABOUT THE ‘FUTURE’
Author Max Dublin wrote in the Prologue to this 1989 book, “The impetus to write this book originally came from the desire to shed some light on a number of troubling contradictions that were impressed on me a few years ago while I was working as a government consultant… I was hired to help … complete a unique report [a] sort of long-range planning document… I was eventually asked to take a hard look at what our different types of prophets have to say about the future. Predicting the future has become so integral to the fabric of modern consciousness that few people feel compelled to question it, and fewer still feel the need to defend it. And yet… it was shocking to discover how much of what even our most respectable prophets have to say about the future is blatantly false… or morally questionable… The more … I thought about the role our prophets have come to play in the development of our world, the more contradictions I discovered… The first of these contradictions … goes something like this: … present trends allow for almost endless possibilities for … the world of the future… Endless possibilities, but very few real choices---unless, of course, you are willing to run the risks and pay the costs of ‘bucking trends.’” (Pg. 1-3)
He continues, “even when predictions have no advice or warning built into them, … they create expectations, and … people will act on the basis of these kinds of expectations. But false predictions---and… most predictions… turn out to be false… false predictions are destructive … because, when uttered with conviction, they disarm and inspire us and put us into false positions… [which] encourage us to act in ways … that are typically self-defeating.” (Pg. 5) He adds, “prophecy in our time, though often claiming… to be an objective business… still plays a highly value-ridden part in our political and economic debates. However, while claiming to be objective and scientific, modern-day prophecy merely uses the mantle of science to strengthen and legitimate itself while masking it ideological content.” (Pg. 8-9)
He states, “Many … who listen to … our futurological gurus feel that significant changes are indeed INEVITABLE… But a great many … have also come to feel that, if we can predict what the future will be like, we will be able to CONTROL it, or at least prepare for it in advance by anticipatory actions consisting mainly of avoiding dangers and/or securing our present position.” (Pg. 20)
He observes, “many … modern prophets who belong to what might be called the ‘techno-romantic’ school of futurology seem to be enamored not merely of the technical… solution to a human problem, but … one which places individual autonomy and control above social interaction… The issue that seems to be a paramount importance to these … is how to achieve individual mastery of personal, isolated environments, and how to put the individual who owns the machine at the commanding center of the environment in which he lives… having one’s personal whims and conceits satisfied is more important than having to deal with contrariness in others, or having to rub up against personalities that are different from one’s own. In a word, these are future scenarios in which psychological avoidance is the name of the game.” (Pg. 64-65)
He notes, “as we continue to delegate more and more authority and responsibility for all sorts of formerly personal and private matters to professionals outside of the family, it is in the educational system … that the process of social and cultural reproduction is increasingly carried out… Because the education system is universal and compulsory, it is a common path and a common place… Hence its attraction to our prophets: anyone who can present a convincing picture of future society… [in which] the education system is not producing the future citizens that will … foster the civilization can also make a strong and appealing case for radical educational innovation.” (Pg. 147)
He asserts, “Knowledge is not the same as power. But if and when we lose the ability to distinguish between power and knowledge, the computer revolution will be complete… At that point out lives in the schools, as elsewhere, will be simulated lives.” (Pg. 170)
He argues, “health futurology … likes to envision what can only be described as the erasure of human decision-making… delegating most of it to machines or experts… In these visions, the powerful medical concept of homeostasis… is transmogrified … to a caricature of itself… an icon that wants to be worshipped in order to achieve… what? At bottom, one suspects that the sterile and static concepts that govern these visions … are as close as these futurologists can get to envisioning immortality.” (Pg. 206-207)
He states, “The problem with prophecy today is… [that] prophecy and medicine both represent major interventions in our lives that often cause harm… And we should be particularly concerned because their malign side is not aberrant or accidental but part of their very nature, characteristic of the roles these enterprises play today.” (Pg. 248)
He suggests, “Because of our obsession with the future, many of us have become innovation junkies… When presented with proposals that are said to be our future salvation, we should always bear these problems in mind, and also bear in mind that today innovation is often no more than a racket.” (Pg. 259-260)
He concludes, “It is only at our peril that we forget that if we used only the knowledge we now have, and used it for the good, we could have heaven on earth, without one further innovation or discovery, and thereby create a better world than any of our false prophets are capable of envisioning. This may be a truism but cannot successfully be evaded. It is a matter not of ingenuity but of character, and it is the key to any and all possible good futures.” (Pg. 276)
This book may appeal to those interested in predictions of the ‘future.’
Author Max Dublin wrote in the Prologue to this 1989 book, “The impetus to write this book originally came from the desire to shed some light on a number of troubling contradictions that were impressed on me a few years ago while I was working as a government consultant… I was hired to help … complete a unique report [a] sort of long-range planning document… I was eventually asked to take a hard look at what our different types of prophets have to say about the future. Predicting the future has become so integral to the fabric of modern consciousness that few people feel compelled to question it, and fewer still feel the need to defend it. And yet… it was shocking to discover how much of what even our most respectable prophets have to say about the future is blatantly false… or morally questionable… The more … I thought about the role our prophets have come to play in the development of our world, the more contradictions I discovered… The first of these contradictions … goes something like this: … present trends allow for almost endless possibilities for … the world of the future… Endless possibilities, but very few real choices---unless, of course, you are willing to run the risks and pay the costs of ‘bucking trends.’” (Pg. 1-3)
He continues, “even when predictions have no advice or warning built into them, … they create expectations, and … people will act on the basis of these kinds of expectations. But false predictions---and… most predictions… turn out to be false… false predictions are destructive … because, when uttered with conviction, they disarm and inspire us and put us into false positions… [which] encourage us to act in ways … that are typically self-defeating.” (Pg. 5) He adds, “prophecy in our time, though often claiming… to be an objective business… still plays a highly value-ridden part in our political and economic debates. However, while claiming to be objective and scientific, modern-day prophecy merely uses the mantle of science to strengthen and legitimate itself while masking it ideological content.” (Pg. 8-9)
He states, “Many … who listen to … our futurological gurus feel that significant changes are indeed INEVITABLE… But a great many … have also come to feel that, if we can predict what the future will be like, we will be able to CONTROL it, or at least prepare for it in advance by anticipatory actions consisting mainly of avoiding dangers and/or securing our present position.” (Pg. 20)
He observes, “many … modern prophets who belong to what might be called the ‘techno-romantic’ school of futurology seem to be enamored not merely of the technical… solution to a human problem, but … one which places individual autonomy and control above social interaction… The issue that seems to be a paramount importance to these … is how to achieve individual mastery of personal, isolated environments, and how to put the individual who owns the machine at the commanding center of the environment in which he lives… having one’s personal whims and conceits satisfied is more important than having to deal with contrariness in others, or having to rub up against personalities that are different from one’s own. In a word, these are future scenarios in which psychological avoidance is the name of the game.” (Pg. 64-65)
He notes, “as we continue to delegate more and more authority and responsibility for all sorts of formerly personal and private matters to professionals outside of the family, it is in the educational system … that the process of social and cultural reproduction is increasingly carried out… Because the education system is universal and compulsory, it is a common path and a common place… Hence its attraction to our prophets: anyone who can present a convincing picture of future society… [in which] the education system is not producing the future citizens that will … foster the civilization can also make a strong and appealing case for radical educational innovation.” (Pg. 147)
He asserts, “Knowledge is not the same as power. But if and when we lose the ability to distinguish between power and knowledge, the computer revolution will be complete… At that point out lives in the schools, as elsewhere, will be simulated lives.” (Pg. 170)
He argues, “health futurology … likes to envision what can only be described as the erasure of human decision-making… delegating most of it to machines or experts… In these visions, the powerful medical concept of homeostasis… is transmogrified … to a caricature of itself… an icon that wants to be worshipped in order to achieve… what? At bottom, one suspects that the sterile and static concepts that govern these visions … are as close as these futurologists can get to envisioning immortality.” (Pg. 206-207)
He states, “The problem with prophecy today is… [that] prophecy and medicine both represent major interventions in our lives that often cause harm… And we should be particularly concerned because their malign side is not aberrant or accidental but part of their very nature, characteristic of the roles these enterprises play today.” (Pg. 248)
He suggests, “Because of our obsession with the future, many of us have become innovation junkies… When presented with proposals that are said to be our future salvation, we should always bear these problems in mind, and also bear in mind that today innovation is often no more than a racket.” (Pg. 259-260)
He concludes, “It is only at our peril that we forget that if we used only the knowledge we now have, and used it for the good, we could have heaven on earth, without one further innovation or discovery, and thereby create a better world than any of our false prophets are capable of envisioning. This may be a truism but cannot successfully be evaded. It is a matter not of ingenuity but of character, and it is the key to any and all possible good futures.” (Pg. 276)
This book may appeal to those interested in predictions of the ‘future.’
April 2, 2012
Good book; bursts open the false futurologists; most are self-serving charlatans; many are backroom operatives in para-/political organizations (polsters; e.g. Allan Greig); [even Greig disavowed himself from the new breed; "quacks with no data on the problem at hand, but willing to prognosticate because they are in love with the sound of their own voice."]
January 8, 2013
Back in 1993 I found this on a remainder table for one dollar and took a chance. It is a well-thought indictment of the futurology industry and its influence.
Displaying 1 - 3 of 3 reviews