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How Not to Test a Psychic
Parapsychology texts contain many references to Czechoslovakian clairvoyant Pavel Stepanek. Stepanek's tested "ESP" success rate of over 60% caused the 1970 edition of the Guinness Book of World Records to proclaim him "the best clairvoyant ever tested." Science writer Martin Gardner disagrees.
Gardner gives biographical sketches of the parapsychologists who designed and ran the experiments, men whose own careers were significantly enhanced by promotion of this psychic celebrity. Stepanek first began testing in 1961 with Dr. Milan Ryzl, whose "discovery" of Stepanek launched his own career in the field of parapsychology. He eventually shifted his allegiance from Ryzl to the American parapsychologist Joseph Gaither Pratt, who, as Gardner points out, was in a better position to bring Stepanek the fame and fortune he desired.
The remainder of the book is a detailed analysis of 25 papers that report on the tests conducted on Stepanek by Ryzl, Pratt, and others. Based on a careful review of the test conditions and methods, Gardner shows how Stepanek could have employed subtle techniques of deception to enhance his test scores. Gardner points that the "perfect score" (50 correct guesses out of 50 attempts) that made Stepanek famous was never replicated, and that when test controls were tightened, Stepanek's success ratio fell to the level of chance. In particular, Gardner criticizes the carelessness with which the experiments were executed. Gardner doesn't fault Stepanek (in fact, he admires his perserverance); rather, he faults the researchers who, predisposed to Stepanek's success, failed to design experiments with adequate controls. The "testing" of Pavel Stepanek is a classic example of self-interest conflicting with the interest of science, and ambition colliding with common sense.
Pavel Stepanek "retired" in 1971. Surprisingly, he emerged from obscurity in April of 1989 for an experiment in Amsterdam with parapsychologist Jan Kappers. The results of that experiment are included in a postscript to this volume.
Gardner gives biographical sketches of the parapsychologists who designed and ran the experiments, men whose own careers were significantly enhanced by promotion of this psychic celebrity. Stepanek first began testing in 1961 with Dr. Milan Ryzl, whose "discovery" of Stepanek launched his own career in the field of parapsychology. He eventually shifted his allegiance from Ryzl to the American parapsychologist Joseph Gaither Pratt, who, as Gardner points out, was in a better position to bring Stepanek the fame and fortune he desired.
The remainder of the book is a detailed analysis of 25 papers that report on the tests conducted on Stepanek by Ryzl, Pratt, and others. Based on a careful review of the test conditions and methods, Gardner shows how Stepanek could have employed subtle techniques of deception to enhance his test scores. Gardner points that the "perfect score" (50 correct guesses out of 50 attempts) that made Stepanek famous was never replicated, and that when test controls were tightened, Stepanek's success ratio fell to the level of chance. In particular, Gardner criticizes the carelessness with which the experiments were executed. Gardner doesn't fault Stepanek (in fact, he admires his perserverance); rather, he faults the researchers who, predisposed to Stepanek's success, failed to design experiments with adequate controls. The "testing" of Pavel Stepanek is a classic example of self-interest conflicting with the interest of science, and ambition colliding with common sense.
Pavel Stepanek "retired" in 1971. Surprisingly, he emerged from obscurity in April of 1989 for an experiment in Amsterdam with parapsychologist Jan Kappers. The results of that experiment are included in a postscript to this volume.
264 pages, Hardcover
First published August 1, 1989
6 people want to read
About the author
Martin Gardner
504 books511 followersMartin Gardner was an American mathematics and science writer specializing in recreational mathematics, but with interests encompassing micromagic, stage magic, literature (especially the writings of Lewis Carroll), philosophy, scientific skepticism, and religion. He wrote the Mathematical Games column in Scientific American from 1956 to 1981, and published over 70 books.
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June 3, 2024
GARDNER LOOKS IN DETAIL AT A ONCE-PROMINENT CLAIRVOYANT
Martin Gardner (1914-2010) was an American popular science writer, who wrote a column in Scientific American for twenty-five years; he was also one of the founders of the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal (CSICOP).
He wrote in the Introduction to this 1989 book, “Contrary to what many of my critics suppose, I am completely open to the possibility that ESP is genuine. My skepticism rests almost solely on my inability to find convincing evidence for ESP. I have no a priori grounds for ruling it out, and in some ways would be delighted if I thought it had been established by reliable, replicable experiments. In every case, however, whenever I looked below the surface of the classic demonstrations, I found that Occam’s razor provided simpler, more convincing explanations. Would PS’s [Pavel Stepanek] amazing career withstand a similar scrutiny?” (Pg. 8)
He continues, “I will not deny that I have my own private opinion, but in no way will this monograph settle the matter; nor is it intended to. With only a few exceptions it will deal entirely with the … possibility---that PS had no psi abilities and practiced deception. The reason is simple. It is the only possibility on which I can bring to bear my knowledge and expertise. But I say now, and will repeat many times, that I do not KNOW whether PS used deception. Moreover, to argue that he did is not the major thrust of this monograph. What then is the thrust? It is to analyze carefully the published papers about PS and to show how results COULD have been obtained in nonparanormal ways. At no time will I question the integrity of researchers, though in one case I will question the honesty of an assistant. My main purpose is to show that the experimenters, ignorant of deception techniques familiar to card magicians and card hustlers, failed to devise adequate controls. My indictment … is an indictment of the incompetence of his investigators.” (Pg 10-11)
He states, “I must remind readers that my chief purpose is to show how poorly the experiment was planned, and how little MR [Milan Ryzl] comprehended the need for extraordinary evidence to support extraordinary claims. I have no way of knowing if any of my speculations are correct. The positive scores obtained … may have been due entirely to his clairvoyant powers. What I do claim is that the test was too lacking in even the most elementary controls to be taken as evidence for such powers.” (Pg. 30)
He suggests, “with respect to psychokinesis… In the rotating arrow test, amplification by many psychics seems clearly ‘preferable’ to amplification by repeated efforts of one psychic… if one psychic cannot muster up enough PK to rotate the arrow at noon, he or she will be just as unable to do so ten minutes later. However, PK should be strongly amplified when coming simultaneously from many psychics standing around the arrow. One person may not be able to lift a heavy table, but ten people may be able to lift it with ease… I find it puzzling that Rao and Palmer cannot understand such simple reasoning.” (Pg. 56)
Of the 1963 experiments, he says, “My main criticism is that most of the nine pages of the report … are devoted to summarizing results and discussing their implications. The actual procedures and their controls are covered in less than one page. We have here another striking instance of an extraordinary results… [which] is presented in a paper with an extraordinary absence of details about the controls that were in force.” (Pg. 107)
He asserts, “Although extremely simple experimental designs were readily available---designs that would have closed all loopholes tightly---JGP [Joseph Gaither Pratt] was consistently unable to use them. Whenever by accident the loopholes were closed, and PS’s scores fell to chance, the failures were always attributed to something psychological that disturbed the operation of PS’s psi powers. Instead of continuing with tight controls, JGP invariably managed to design a new experiment in which an old loophole reappeared. On no occasion did he seek the advice of a magician knowledgeable about card magic. Had he done so, he would have learned about asymmetric marking and, if our conjectures are correct, PS would never have made it into The Guinness Book of World Records.” (Pg. 167-168)
Later, he reiterates, “The main purpose of this book is to postulate sensory cues which the authors indeed failed to take into account.” (Pg. 208)
He concludes, “Stepanek’s chief claim to fame is that his powers of clairvoyance produced moderate positive deviations from chance over a period of a decade.” (Pg. 245) He continues, “I have stated earlier… my belief that JGP, though gullible, was an honest researcher incapable of deliberately falsifying data. On the other hand, I cannot rule out the possibility that in his strong compulsion to believe in psi he may have mad unconscious errors in reporting and analyzing raw data… Let me now be as frank as I can about … Pavel Stepanek… in my view his much-vaunted ESP talent was not genuine. I believe it was the product of subtle nonparanormal techniques that he perfected over many years, motivated by his desire for fame and money. We should remember that PS never engaged in experiments without being paid well for his time and effort. I offer this interpretation as a personal opinion---nothing more… I have no reason to look down on PS. As a lifelong enthusiast of conjuring, I admire persons who … can deceive intelligent investigators who are untrained in magic.” (Pg. 254)
While Gardner’s observations are sharp as always, his subject (Pavel Stepanek) is fairly unknown in this country, and I found myself wishing Gardner had chosen a more recent and prominent subject.
Martin Gardner (1914-2010) was an American popular science writer, who wrote a column in Scientific American for twenty-five years; he was also one of the founders of the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal (CSICOP).
He wrote in the Introduction to this 1989 book, “Contrary to what many of my critics suppose, I am completely open to the possibility that ESP is genuine. My skepticism rests almost solely on my inability to find convincing evidence for ESP. I have no a priori grounds for ruling it out, and in some ways would be delighted if I thought it had been established by reliable, replicable experiments. In every case, however, whenever I looked below the surface of the classic demonstrations, I found that Occam’s razor provided simpler, more convincing explanations. Would PS’s [Pavel Stepanek] amazing career withstand a similar scrutiny?” (Pg. 8)
He continues, “I will not deny that I have my own private opinion, but in no way will this monograph settle the matter; nor is it intended to. With only a few exceptions it will deal entirely with the … possibility---that PS had no psi abilities and practiced deception. The reason is simple. It is the only possibility on which I can bring to bear my knowledge and expertise. But I say now, and will repeat many times, that I do not KNOW whether PS used deception. Moreover, to argue that he did is not the major thrust of this monograph. What then is the thrust? It is to analyze carefully the published papers about PS and to show how results COULD have been obtained in nonparanormal ways. At no time will I question the integrity of researchers, though in one case I will question the honesty of an assistant. My main purpose is to show that the experimenters, ignorant of deception techniques familiar to card magicians and card hustlers, failed to devise adequate controls. My indictment … is an indictment of the incompetence of his investigators.” (Pg 10-11)
He states, “I must remind readers that my chief purpose is to show how poorly the experiment was planned, and how little MR [Milan Ryzl] comprehended the need for extraordinary evidence to support extraordinary claims. I have no way of knowing if any of my speculations are correct. The positive scores obtained … may have been due entirely to his clairvoyant powers. What I do claim is that the test was too lacking in even the most elementary controls to be taken as evidence for such powers.” (Pg. 30)
He suggests, “with respect to psychokinesis… In the rotating arrow test, amplification by many psychics seems clearly ‘preferable’ to amplification by repeated efforts of one psychic… if one psychic cannot muster up enough PK to rotate the arrow at noon, he or she will be just as unable to do so ten minutes later. However, PK should be strongly amplified when coming simultaneously from many psychics standing around the arrow. One person may not be able to lift a heavy table, but ten people may be able to lift it with ease… I find it puzzling that Rao and Palmer cannot understand such simple reasoning.” (Pg. 56)
Of the 1963 experiments, he says, “My main criticism is that most of the nine pages of the report … are devoted to summarizing results and discussing their implications. The actual procedures and their controls are covered in less than one page. We have here another striking instance of an extraordinary results… [which] is presented in a paper with an extraordinary absence of details about the controls that were in force.” (Pg. 107)
He asserts, “Although extremely simple experimental designs were readily available---designs that would have closed all loopholes tightly---JGP [Joseph Gaither Pratt] was consistently unable to use them. Whenever by accident the loopholes were closed, and PS’s scores fell to chance, the failures were always attributed to something psychological that disturbed the operation of PS’s psi powers. Instead of continuing with tight controls, JGP invariably managed to design a new experiment in which an old loophole reappeared. On no occasion did he seek the advice of a magician knowledgeable about card magic. Had he done so, he would have learned about asymmetric marking and, if our conjectures are correct, PS would never have made it into The Guinness Book of World Records.” (Pg. 167-168)
Later, he reiterates, “The main purpose of this book is to postulate sensory cues which the authors indeed failed to take into account.” (Pg. 208)
He concludes, “Stepanek’s chief claim to fame is that his powers of clairvoyance produced moderate positive deviations from chance over a period of a decade.” (Pg. 245) He continues, “I have stated earlier… my belief that JGP, though gullible, was an honest researcher incapable of deliberately falsifying data. On the other hand, I cannot rule out the possibility that in his strong compulsion to believe in psi he may have mad unconscious errors in reporting and analyzing raw data… Let me now be as frank as I can about … Pavel Stepanek… in my view his much-vaunted ESP talent was not genuine. I believe it was the product of subtle nonparanormal techniques that he perfected over many years, motivated by his desire for fame and money. We should remember that PS never engaged in experiments without being paid well for his time and effort. I offer this interpretation as a personal opinion---nothing more… I have no reason to look down on PS. As a lifelong enthusiast of conjuring, I admire persons who … can deceive intelligent investigators who are untrained in magic.” (Pg. 254)
While Gardner’s observations are sharp as always, his subject (Pavel Stepanek) is fairly unknown in this country, and I found myself wishing Gardner had chosen a more recent and prominent subject.
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