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The Asian 21st Century
This open access book consists of essays written by Kishore Mahbubani to explore the challenges and dilemmas faced by the West and Asia in an increasingly interdependent world village and intensifying geopolitical competition.
The contents cover four parts: Part One The End of the Era of Western Domination. The major strategic error that the West is now making is to refuse to accept this reality. The West needs to learn how to act strategically in a world where they are no longer the number 1. Part Two The Return of Asia. From the years 1 to 1820, the largest economies in the world were Asian. After 1820 and the rise of the West, however, great Asian civilizations like China and India were dominated and humiliated. The twenty-first century will see the return of Asia to the center of the world stage. Part Three The Peaceful Rise of China. The shift in the balance of power to the East has been most pronounced in the rise of China. While this rise has been peaceful, many in the West have responded with considerable concern over the influence China will have on the world order. Part Four Globalization, Multilateralism and Cooperation. Many of the world’s pressing issues, such as COVID-19 and climate change, are global issues and will require global cooperation to deal with. In short, human beings now live in a global village. States must work with each other, and we need a world order that enables and facilitates cooperation in our global village.
The contents cover four parts: Part One The End of the Era of Western Domination. The major strategic error that the West is now making is to refuse to accept this reality. The West needs to learn how to act strategically in a world where they are no longer the number 1. Part Two The Return of Asia. From the years 1 to 1820, the largest economies in the world were Asian. After 1820 and the rise of the West, however, great Asian civilizations like China and India were dominated and humiliated. The twenty-first century will see the return of Asia to the center of the world stage. Part Three The Peaceful Rise of China. The shift in the balance of power to the East has been most pronounced in the rise of China. While this rise has been peaceful, many in the West have responded with considerable concern over the influence China will have on the world order. Part Four Globalization, Multilateralism and Cooperation. Many of the world’s pressing issues, such as COVID-19 and climate change, are global issues and will require global cooperation to deal with. In short, human beings now live in a global village. States must work with each other, and we need a world order that enables and facilitates cooperation in our global village.
419 pages, Kindle Edition
Published January 1, 2022
121 people are currently reading
142 people want to read
About the author
Kishore Mahbubani
31 books333 followersKishore Mahbubani (born 24 October 1948) is a Singaporean academic and former diplomat. He is currently Professor in the Practice of Public Policy at Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.
From 1971 to 2004 he served in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and was Singapore's Permanent Representative to the United Nations. In that role, he served as President of the United Nations Security Council in January 2001 and May 2002.
On 6 November 2017, Mahbubani announced that he would retire from the position as Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School at the end of 2017.
From 1971 to 2004 he served in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and was Singapore's Permanent Representative to the United Nations. In that role, he served as President of the United Nations Security Council in January 2001 and May 2002.
On 6 November 2017, Mahbubani announced that he would retire from the position as Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School at the end of 2017.
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May 14, 2022
This new book by Kishore Mahbubani, a senior Singaporean diplomat and academic, deals with the same issues as his earlier book "Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Supremacy". The new one is a collection of essays that have been published elsewhere in a variety of sources, with a few interviews with the author thrown in. This results in an inevitable repetitiveness throughout. This is not only the case for substance, but Mahbubani has the tendency of using same phrases and metaphors and to cite same research multiple times. Having said that, one must largely agree with Mahbubani’s analysis and viewpoints or at least take them seriously.
The first part of the book is called ‘The End of the Era of Western Domination’ in which he makes the case that the West is in denial and must learn to act strategically in a world where it is no longer Number One. He likes to quote a prescient speech by Bill Clinton at Yale University. The then-President said that at the time when the US will become No. 2 in the world, it will benefit from clear international rules. This is an excellent observation but there are many Americans who won’t accept the inevitable that the US would not always remain No. 1 and it would be almost certain political suicide for any American politician to suggest otherwise. (The propaganda about American exceptionalism starts early in US schools and society, but is not unique to America: similar indoctrination is prevalent also in other large nations, not least in China and Russia.)
Much of Mahbubani’s writing focuses on the United States and here he is at his sharpest. His main point is that the US is no longer a democracy, but has turned into a plutocracy in which a rich minority dictates national policy. As he likes to say, it is now government of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1%. He cites research by prominent authorities, such as the Nobel prize winner Joseph Stiglitz and the Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf, who have also observed this undeniable truth. Evidence includes that the United States is the only developed country where the economic status of the lower 50% of the population has actually declined in the past three decades. He also refers several times to the “sea of despair” (a phrase coined by Princeton economists Angus Deaton and Anne Case) of American working classes, which led them to elect Donald Trump as president, mistaking his crude rhetoric for concern for the working poor, not realizing that Trump himself is a prime representative of the plutocracy. Again, despite all evidence to the contrary, most Americans are in denial that their country would no longer be a democracy.
At the root of the current situation is the Thatcher-Reagan revolution of the 1980s. It was—and remains—popular when Reagan made his speech, stating that government is not the solution to your problems; government is the problem. Mahbubani is obviously absolutely correct that this dogma of unfettered markets fixing all problems has led to many, if not most, of the problems the American society (and many others) now are beset with. Mahbubani quotes another Nobel laureate, Amartya Sen as saying that societies are best when they combine the invisible hand of markets with the visible hand of good government.
Mahbubani identifies three strategic mistakes that were made that led to the troubles that we are now experiencing. First was the failure of the elites to protect the working classes from the inevitable disruptions caused by globalization. This was partly due to the illusion of the “end of history”, as proclaimed by Francis Fukuyama, that the Western capitalist democracies had won the global competition and would thus not have to adjust to new realities. Mistake number two was the trust placed in markets and the intentional weakening of government institutions in the US. The third and final mistake was caused by the antipathy of the American business elites to paying attention to the larger social concerns, which then led to the creation of the plutocracy. Logically, they are all fixable, but it is impossible to fix a problem if you deny its existence.
The title of the book refers to the 21st century belonging to Asia, the focus of the second part: ‘The Asian Renaissance’. It makes a historically accurate points that the past 200 or so years have been an anomaly in world history. Before that China and India’s were the two largest economies in the world. The standards of living were higher in Asia than in Europe for much of preceding history. It was Western colonialism and imperialism, enforced by military might, that changed this. Now, China and other Asian countries are just returning to their rightful place in the world as powerful countries in their own right. It is a dangerous moment as the current hegemon, USA, is in decline (at least in relative terms) but wants to ensure its continued primacy. Mahbubani cites ample statistical data to back up this contention.
He makes the great point that if American policymakers truly believed that state-led economic policy is detrimental and that markets steer capital to the most optimal allocations, why would the US harp about the Chinese government interfering in the country’s economy? Why not just let China waste its resources through planning and state-led policy? The undisputed truth is that all current developed countries have used state-led economic policy and protection of infant industries as tools during the phase when they were rising. Now they want to deny this right from other countries threatening the interests of their multinational companies and their primacy.
Mahbubani also cites the Asian response to the Covid-19 pandemic. The mortality rates paint a picture that suggests that most Asian countries have done much better than those in the West (both North America and Europe). Perhaps, however, countries like Japan, Korea, Vietnam or Singapore (as well as New Zealand and Australia) are better examples than China where the Zero-Covid policy has led to draconian lockdowns and major societal disruptions.
The third part of the book is entitled ‘The Peaceful Rise of China’. Mahbubani has strong faith in China, which may at times seem misplaced. He admits that China is not perfect but that the mistakes that have been made are excusable. He claims that China is not expansionist and does not seek to export its model of governance beyond its own borders. As evidence, he cites that China over its thousands of years of history has not sought colonies. Yet, its actions towards Taiwan (which it considers an inalienable part of One China) and around the South China Sea cast doubt on this claim. (Of course, it would be unthinkable that China would conduct “freedom of navigation” patrols in the international waters of the Caribbean, like the US and its allies do in the South China Sea.) It may be that China prefers to concur the world through economic means, like its Belt and Road Initiative would suggest. President Xi Jinping has, however, gone on record suggesting that China’s example provides an alternative development model to current developing countries (as it obviously does; again, after the fall of communism in Europe, there was a naïve belief that, given the opportunity to vote, all people in the world would naturally choose liberal democracy; a belief that was proven dramatically wrong in Egypt and in countries that US and NATO would “liberate”, in Iraq and elsewhere.)
Mahbubani also casts an understanding eye on China’s crackdown of democracy protests in Hong Kong, writing that no society tolerates violent protest and the Chinese did well in quelling such protests in Hong Kong with no lives lost (in contrast to several protest events in the US where people were killed). He also reminds us that, in general, state should have the monopoly on violence; a very valid point which, however, may not sit well with Second Amendment enthusiasts in the United States.
Overall, Mahbubani argues that, as opposed to the American plutocracy, China is a true meritocracy. This is then reflected in the highly competent government in the country an the fact that China has the highest government approval ratings anywhere in the world. He points out (several times) that the past four decades have been the best for the Chinese people in the country’s 5000-year history. The approval ratings are verifiable and may be in response to good governance (the Chinese people have made a bargain with their leaders: as long as the economy continues to grow, political rights are secondary), although one also suspects that they reflect the significantly increased patriotism among especially young Chinese caused by indoctrination and censorship (see, e.g., Tracy Wen Liu’s article in the spring 2022 issue of Foreign Policy). The fact remains that the West (and especially the US) loses many of the brightest graduates to the private sector due to the salary differential and the anti-government sentiment. Singapore, where Mahbubani is from, is arguably the most meritocratic and best run country where the best graduates go to government jobs, which are well paid and powerful (perhaps out of modesty, Mahbubani does not emphasize this).
The final part focuses on ‘Globalization, Multilateralism and Cooperation’. Mahbubani is a strong proponent of multilateral action, both at the global (the United Nations) and regional (EU, ASEAN) levels. He rightly underscores that many of the problems that the world faces—the pandemic, climate change, migration, the global economy—are beyond the ability of nation states to manage. He berates the United States and the West more generally for intentionally weaking multilateral institutions, such as the WHO which would be needed more now than ever. He recognizes that powerful countries think that multilateralism constrains them, but points out the fallacy in this argument. One of his metaphors repeated a couple of times is that today’s world is like a cruise ship with nation states as cabins. It doesn’t make sense only to keep the individual cabins clean without taking care of the entire ship.
Mahbubani is a strong believer in globalization, free trade, and competition. He laments the isolationist tendencies that populist leaders around the world favor. The US withdrawal during President Trump’s tenure from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is one of his targets. He also believes that economics will trump military strength and, therefore, in terms of four-letter abbreviations, the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership that brings together 15 nations in the Asia-Pacific region) will be more powerful than QUAD (the quadrilateral security dialogue between the USA, Australia, India and Japan).
He also emphasizes the importance of economic growth and frequently cites GDP growth figures as evidence of Asia’s (notably China and India) success. In this sense, his economic views are quite traditional. Although he mentions the problem of climate change several times, he doesn’t seem to make the connection to the growth in extraction of natural resources, production, and consumption as the drivers of climate change and wider environmental destruction. The problem with GDP is that it measures only economic output based on monetary transactions. It does not discriminate between positive and negative outputs, it doesn’t measure unpaid work (like, care of children or the elderly), and it is not negatively affected by reduced natural capital or environmental degradation.
Mahbubani clearly considers himself a practitioner of Realpolitik. His idols whom he frequently evokes include the legendary American diplomat George Kennan, the founder and long-term leader of Singapore Lee Kuan Yew, and Henry Kissinger. The latter sounds odd, even callous, given how much blood, especially Asian blood (think, Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh…), the man has on his hands.
Kishore Mahbubani is a significant thinker on the global policy arena. Reading him is stimulating. He is not afraid of slaying sacred cows. This is not a book to the liking of those who think that the US is the greatest country on earth and that Western style democracy will always win, but it is them who would most benefit from reading it.
The first part of the book is called ‘The End of the Era of Western Domination’ in which he makes the case that the West is in denial and must learn to act strategically in a world where it is no longer Number One. He likes to quote a prescient speech by Bill Clinton at Yale University. The then-President said that at the time when the US will become No. 2 in the world, it will benefit from clear international rules. This is an excellent observation but there are many Americans who won’t accept the inevitable that the US would not always remain No. 1 and it would be almost certain political suicide for any American politician to suggest otherwise. (The propaganda about American exceptionalism starts early in US schools and society, but is not unique to America: similar indoctrination is prevalent also in other large nations, not least in China and Russia.)
Much of Mahbubani’s writing focuses on the United States and here he is at his sharpest. His main point is that the US is no longer a democracy, but has turned into a plutocracy in which a rich minority dictates national policy. As he likes to say, it is now government of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1%. He cites research by prominent authorities, such as the Nobel prize winner Joseph Stiglitz and the Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf, who have also observed this undeniable truth. Evidence includes that the United States is the only developed country where the economic status of the lower 50% of the population has actually declined in the past three decades. He also refers several times to the “sea of despair” (a phrase coined by Princeton economists Angus Deaton and Anne Case) of American working classes, which led them to elect Donald Trump as president, mistaking his crude rhetoric for concern for the working poor, not realizing that Trump himself is a prime representative of the plutocracy. Again, despite all evidence to the contrary, most Americans are in denial that their country would no longer be a democracy.
At the root of the current situation is the Thatcher-Reagan revolution of the 1980s. It was—and remains—popular when Reagan made his speech, stating that government is not the solution to your problems; government is the problem. Mahbubani is obviously absolutely correct that this dogma of unfettered markets fixing all problems has led to many, if not most, of the problems the American society (and many others) now are beset with. Mahbubani quotes another Nobel laureate, Amartya Sen as saying that societies are best when they combine the invisible hand of markets with the visible hand of good government.
Mahbubani identifies three strategic mistakes that were made that led to the troubles that we are now experiencing. First was the failure of the elites to protect the working classes from the inevitable disruptions caused by globalization. This was partly due to the illusion of the “end of history”, as proclaimed by Francis Fukuyama, that the Western capitalist democracies had won the global competition and would thus not have to adjust to new realities. Mistake number two was the trust placed in markets and the intentional weakening of government institutions in the US. The third and final mistake was caused by the antipathy of the American business elites to paying attention to the larger social concerns, which then led to the creation of the plutocracy. Logically, they are all fixable, but it is impossible to fix a problem if you deny its existence.
The title of the book refers to the 21st century belonging to Asia, the focus of the second part: ‘The Asian Renaissance’. It makes a historically accurate points that the past 200 or so years have been an anomaly in world history. Before that China and India’s were the two largest economies in the world. The standards of living were higher in Asia than in Europe for much of preceding history. It was Western colonialism and imperialism, enforced by military might, that changed this. Now, China and other Asian countries are just returning to their rightful place in the world as powerful countries in their own right. It is a dangerous moment as the current hegemon, USA, is in decline (at least in relative terms) but wants to ensure its continued primacy. Mahbubani cites ample statistical data to back up this contention.
He makes the great point that if American policymakers truly believed that state-led economic policy is detrimental and that markets steer capital to the most optimal allocations, why would the US harp about the Chinese government interfering in the country’s economy? Why not just let China waste its resources through planning and state-led policy? The undisputed truth is that all current developed countries have used state-led economic policy and protection of infant industries as tools during the phase when they were rising. Now they want to deny this right from other countries threatening the interests of their multinational companies and their primacy.
Mahbubani also cites the Asian response to the Covid-19 pandemic. The mortality rates paint a picture that suggests that most Asian countries have done much better than those in the West (both North America and Europe). Perhaps, however, countries like Japan, Korea, Vietnam or Singapore (as well as New Zealand and Australia) are better examples than China where the Zero-Covid policy has led to draconian lockdowns and major societal disruptions.
The third part of the book is entitled ‘The Peaceful Rise of China’. Mahbubani has strong faith in China, which may at times seem misplaced. He admits that China is not perfect but that the mistakes that have been made are excusable. He claims that China is not expansionist and does not seek to export its model of governance beyond its own borders. As evidence, he cites that China over its thousands of years of history has not sought colonies. Yet, its actions towards Taiwan (which it considers an inalienable part of One China) and around the South China Sea cast doubt on this claim. (Of course, it would be unthinkable that China would conduct “freedom of navigation” patrols in the international waters of the Caribbean, like the US and its allies do in the South China Sea.) It may be that China prefers to concur the world through economic means, like its Belt and Road Initiative would suggest. President Xi Jinping has, however, gone on record suggesting that China’s example provides an alternative development model to current developing countries (as it obviously does; again, after the fall of communism in Europe, there was a naïve belief that, given the opportunity to vote, all people in the world would naturally choose liberal democracy; a belief that was proven dramatically wrong in Egypt and in countries that US and NATO would “liberate”, in Iraq and elsewhere.)
Mahbubani also casts an understanding eye on China’s crackdown of democracy protests in Hong Kong, writing that no society tolerates violent protest and the Chinese did well in quelling such protests in Hong Kong with no lives lost (in contrast to several protest events in the US where people were killed). He also reminds us that, in general, state should have the monopoly on violence; a very valid point which, however, may not sit well with Second Amendment enthusiasts in the United States.
Overall, Mahbubani argues that, as opposed to the American plutocracy, China is a true meritocracy. This is then reflected in the highly competent government in the country an the fact that China has the highest government approval ratings anywhere in the world. He points out (several times) that the past four decades have been the best for the Chinese people in the country’s 5000-year history. The approval ratings are verifiable and may be in response to good governance (the Chinese people have made a bargain with their leaders: as long as the economy continues to grow, political rights are secondary), although one also suspects that they reflect the significantly increased patriotism among especially young Chinese caused by indoctrination and censorship (see, e.g., Tracy Wen Liu’s article in the spring 2022 issue of Foreign Policy). The fact remains that the West (and especially the US) loses many of the brightest graduates to the private sector due to the salary differential and the anti-government sentiment. Singapore, where Mahbubani is from, is arguably the most meritocratic and best run country where the best graduates go to government jobs, which are well paid and powerful (perhaps out of modesty, Mahbubani does not emphasize this).
The final part focuses on ‘Globalization, Multilateralism and Cooperation’. Mahbubani is a strong proponent of multilateral action, both at the global (the United Nations) and regional (EU, ASEAN) levels. He rightly underscores that many of the problems that the world faces—the pandemic, climate change, migration, the global economy—are beyond the ability of nation states to manage. He berates the United States and the West more generally for intentionally weaking multilateral institutions, such as the WHO which would be needed more now than ever. He recognizes that powerful countries think that multilateralism constrains them, but points out the fallacy in this argument. One of his metaphors repeated a couple of times is that today’s world is like a cruise ship with nation states as cabins. It doesn’t make sense only to keep the individual cabins clean without taking care of the entire ship.
Mahbubani is a strong believer in globalization, free trade, and competition. He laments the isolationist tendencies that populist leaders around the world favor. The US withdrawal during President Trump’s tenure from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is one of his targets. He also believes that economics will trump military strength and, therefore, in terms of four-letter abbreviations, the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership that brings together 15 nations in the Asia-Pacific region) will be more powerful than QUAD (the quadrilateral security dialogue between the USA, Australia, India and Japan).
He also emphasizes the importance of economic growth and frequently cites GDP growth figures as evidence of Asia’s (notably China and India) success. In this sense, his economic views are quite traditional. Although he mentions the problem of climate change several times, he doesn’t seem to make the connection to the growth in extraction of natural resources, production, and consumption as the drivers of climate change and wider environmental destruction. The problem with GDP is that it measures only economic output based on monetary transactions. It does not discriminate between positive and negative outputs, it doesn’t measure unpaid work (like, care of children or the elderly), and it is not negatively affected by reduced natural capital or environmental degradation.
Mahbubani clearly considers himself a practitioner of Realpolitik. His idols whom he frequently evokes include the legendary American diplomat George Kennan, the founder and long-term leader of Singapore Lee Kuan Yew, and Henry Kissinger. The latter sounds odd, even callous, given how much blood, especially Asian blood (think, Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh…), the man has on his hands.
Kishore Mahbubani is a significant thinker on the global policy arena. Reading him is stimulating. He is not afraid of slaying sacred cows. This is not a book to the liking of those who think that the US is the greatest country on earth and that Western style democracy will always win, but it is them who would most benefit from reading it.
December 31, 2024
Kishore Mahbubani è un consulente geopolitico e diplomatico singaporiano, che è stato anche ambasciatore, per la città-stato, alle Nazioni Unite, ricoprendo, poi, diversi ruoli in questa e altre organizzazioni internazionali. Questo suo libro "The Asian 21st Century" è una raccolta di suoi articoli e interviste, nelle quali espone un po' ciò che tutti quelli che si occupano di geopolitica dicono e sanno: ovvero, l'argomento principale è il declino degli Stati Uniti e dell'Occidente e la rinascita dell'Asia, trainata da Cina e India.
Devo dire che, vedersi con gli occhi di una cultura differente dalla propria, è un'esperienza da fare: formativa, fertile, provante, sicuramente utile.
Le critiche che vengono fatte, principalmente agli Stati Uniti, sono certamente valide: il loro passaggio da democrazia a plutocrazia, l'abbandono di politiche a favore delle classi medie, la mancanza di un governo, che aiuti davvero l'economia e i cittadini, proponendo politiche di intervento e assistenza, laddove necessario, mancanza di visione di lungo periodo, per quanto riguarda il posizionamento geopolitico e la sfida cinese.
All' Europa, invece, si rimprovera, una mancanza di assertività e visione e una sudditanza agli Stati Uniti.
Tutto questo, mentre si tessono le lodi dei miracoli asiatici, a partire da quello Cinese, passando per il prossimo miracolo indiano e per gli altri, rilevanti, ma avvertiti come meno minacciosi, per l'Occidente, degli altri stati del sud-est asiatico.
Per Kishore Mahbubani è solo normale che India e Cina tornino alla ribalta e che l'asse geopolitico, seguendo quello economico, si sposti ad oriente. I circa 200 anni di supremazia occidentale sono un' "aberrazione" storica, secondo il diplomatico singaporiano... e si sta tornando alla normalità.
Ecco, in questa visione della storia e della politica ci sono tante cose condivisibili e tante altre meno condivisibili.
Giacché l'argomento è davvero vasto, io mi voglio soffermare su un solo punto: l'egemonia. Una potenza egemone è in grado di produrre valori e sistemi propri, che ispirano emulazione.
Ora, quello che penso è che, mentre è tutto da dimostrare che la Cina risolverà i suoi problemi interni, a me non sembra che - comunque - lo stia facendo con un proprio modello. Il Comunismo? È nato in Europa. Le aperture al capitalismo? Sono nate in Europa e sviluppatesi negli USA. La convivenza tra queste due ideologie, il sistema misto? Lo trovi in Europa.
E allo stesso tempo nessuno vieta agli europei di votare a sinistra e ristabilire uno stato più forte che prevenga da derive plutocratiche.
Cosa rimane, dunque, di davvero innovativo alla Cina, che possa salvare - anche noi - dalle nostre vere criticità e debolezze?
Viene detto che la Cina ha compiuto il miracolo di sollevare dalla povertà milioni e milioni di persone in poco tempo. È vero. Ma quando lo si dice, bisogna tenere presente altri tre fattori: il primo è che una volta che si è toccato il fondo, non ci vuole molta ricchezza da distribuire, per sollevare le masse dalla povertà (basta appunto distribuirla ed essere bene organizzati). Non è che oggi i cinesi abbiano il tenore di vita dei lussemburghesi (ed è da vedere se lo avranno). Il secondo elemento è che per ottenere un aumento del tenore di vita, il sistema cinese è dovuto entrare nel WTO. La terza cosa da tenere presente è che il miracolo cinese non è un unicum storico: masse sono state sollevate un'altra volta dalla povertà, in poco tempo: in Europa e in USA. Col capitalismo... che però ha altri problemi e - senza la mano statale - ritengo distruttivo.
Sinceramente, che la potenza egemone sia in USA o Cina, poco mi cale, di per sé, finché si possono salvaguardare più che si può le libertà individuali.
Ma trovo davvero poco profondo attaccare l'occidente sulla base dei livelli di profitto e di economia e poi celebrare la Cina sulla base di una visione capitalista che fa solo danni.
Forse il prossimo passo, per l'umanità, dovrebbe essere il riuscire a non pensare in termini di arricchimento e profitto, ma di qualità dell'ambiente e della salute e della vita. E no, non è detto che dipenda dal PIL, dallo SPREAD etc etc...
Secondo me, se una egemonia cinese ci sarà, sarà solo un passaggio di testimone su basi quantitative. Ma non vedo alcun salto qualitativo per l'umanità.
Ma l'ossessione per la quantità, ripeto, è capitalista, neoliberista. Ed ecco che forse la Cina egemone, risente degli egemoni, ineliminabili (??? - mi auguro di no), precedenti storici... E allora, forse, Fukuyama un po' di ragione l'aveva (ma mi riservo di approfondire prossimamente)... e nel sistema già creato, aggiungo io, bisognerebbe dare semplicemente più spazio ai partiti verdi e socialdemocratici.
Infine, per quanto interessante, questa raccolta di articoli e interviste, non è molto approfondita (perché quanto ci si può approfondire, appunto, in un articolo o in un'intervista?). E trattando tutti della stessa questione, il libro può risultare un po' ripetitivo. Ma si legge facilmente e fa riflettere su questioni cruciali per il mondo a venire...
Devo dire che, vedersi con gli occhi di una cultura differente dalla propria, è un'esperienza da fare: formativa, fertile, provante, sicuramente utile.
Le critiche che vengono fatte, principalmente agli Stati Uniti, sono certamente valide: il loro passaggio da democrazia a plutocrazia, l'abbandono di politiche a favore delle classi medie, la mancanza di un governo, che aiuti davvero l'economia e i cittadini, proponendo politiche di intervento e assistenza, laddove necessario, mancanza di visione di lungo periodo, per quanto riguarda il posizionamento geopolitico e la sfida cinese.
All' Europa, invece, si rimprovera, una mancanza di assertività e visione e una sudditanza agli Stati Uniti.
Tutto questo, mentre si tessono le lodi dei miracoli asiatici, a partire da quello Cinese, passando per il prossimo miracolo indiano e per gli altri, rilevanti, ma avvertiti come meno minacciosi, per l'Occidente, degli altri stati del sud-est asiatico.
Per Kishore Mahbubani è solo normale che India e Cina tornino alla ribalta e che l'asse geopolitico, seguendo quello economico, si sposti ad oriente. I circa 200 anni di supremazia occidentale sono un' "aberrazione" storica, secondo il diplomatico singaporiano... e si sta tornando alla normalità.
Ecco, in questa visione della storia e della politica ci sono tante cose condivisibili e tante altre meno condivisibili.
Giacché l'argomento è davvero vasto, io mi voglio soffermare su un solo punto: l'egemonia. Una potenza egemone è in grado di produrre valori e sistemi propri, che ispirano emulazione.
Ora, quello che penso è che, mentre è tutto da dimostrare che la Cina risolverà i suoi problemi interni, a me non sembra che - comunque - lo stia facendo con un proprio modello. Il Comunismo? È nato in Europa. Le aperture al capitalismo? Sono nate in Europa e sviluppatesi negli USA. La convivenza tra queste due ideologie, il sistema misto? Lo trovi in Europa.
E allo stesso tempo nessuno vieta agli europei di votare a sinistra e ristabilire uno stato più forte che prevenga da derive plutocratiche.
Cosa rimane, dunque, di davvero innovativo alla Cina, che possa salvare - anche noi - dalle nostre vere criticità e debolezze?
Viene detto che la Cina ha compiuto il miracolo di sollevare dalla povertà milioni e milioni di persone in poco tempo. È vero. Ma quando lo si dice, bisogna tenere presente altri tre fattori: il primo è che una volta che si è toccato il fondo, non ci vuole molta ricchezza da distribuire, per sollevare le masse dalla povertà (basta appunto distribuirla ed essere bene organizzati). Non è che oggi i cinesi abbiano il tenore di vita dei lussemburghesi (ed è da vedere se lo avranno). Il secondo elemento è che per ottenere un aumento del tenore di vita, il sistema cinese è dovuto entrare nel WTO. La terza cosa da tenere presente è che il miracolo cinese non è un unicum storico: masse sono state sollevate un'altra volta dalla povertà, in poco tempo: in Europa e in USA. Col capitalismo... che però ha altri problemi e - senza la mano statale - ritengo distruttivo.
Sinceramente, che la potenza egemone sia in USA o Cina, poco mi cale, di per sé, finché si possono salvaguardare più che si può le libertà individuali.
Ma trovo davvero poco profondo attaccare l'occidente sulla base dei livelli di profitto e di economia e poi celebrare la Cina sulla base di una visione capitalista che fa solo danni.
Forse il prossimo passo, per l'umanità, dovrebbe essere il riuscire a non pensare in termini di arricchimento e profitto, ma di qualità dell'ambiente e della salute e della vita. E no, non è detto che dipenda dal PIL, dallo SPREAD etc etc...
Secondo me, se una egemonia cinese ci sarà, sarà solo un passaggio di testimone su basi quantitative. Ma non vedo alcun salto qualitativo per l'umanità.
Ma l'ossessione per la quantità, ripeto, è capitalista, neoliberista. Ed ecco che forse la Cina egemone, risente degli egemoni, ineliminabili (??? - mi auguro di no), precedenti storici... E allora, forse, Fukuyama un po' di ragione l'aveva (ma mi riservo di approfondire prossimamente)... e nel sistema già creato, aggiungo io, bisognerebbe dare semplicemente più spazio ai partiti verdi e socialdemocratici.
Infine, per quanto interessante, questa raccolta di articoli e interviste, non è molto approfondita (perché quanto ci si può approfondire, appunto, in un articolo o in un'intervista?). E trattando tutti della stessa questione, il libro può risultare un po' ripetitivo. Ma si legge facilmente e fa riflettere su questioni cruciali per il mondo a venire...
May 12, 2023
“Most Americans are unaware that the average income of the bottom 50 percent of their population has declined over a thirty-year period.”
A collection of essays published over a long time in various newspapers and magazines and also a couple of interviews. Kishore Mahbubani, who was a former Singaporean ambassador to the UN and a pro Chinese hawk, though he may deny it, again elaborates how it was always Asia which were super powers all through the history till 1820 AD and as he is fond of repeating, why the last 200 years were an aberration and again how the center of gravity of the power is moving from the west to east.
Though repetitive, this book sheds light on the contemporary world, the geopolitics, the changing economic and military power especially since the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and how it will only precipitate the demise of the mighty west. When the western world tries to impose its ideas on the rest of the world, it conveniently forgets that it comprises less than 15% of the world population and majority of the people, the rest 85% population doesn't support or back them, as is evident from supporting or opposing the aforementioned conflict.
Those who are interested to know more about Mr. Mahbubani and his views about the changing world order, may read two of his famous books Has China Won? and Has The West Lost It?
Some interesting quotes:
1."China's economy can grow well, even without American investments.”
2.“... any American effort to decouple itself from China could well result in America decoupling itself from the world.”
3.ASEAN has brought peace and prosperity to a troubled region, generated inter-civilizational harmony in the most diverse corner of the earth”
October 28, 2023
2.5 STARS
This book is a collection of essays from 2019 to around 2021. 2023 has been a year is massive changes, putting these essays in the unfortunate status of being outdated already, while not old enough as to yet have historical value to illustrate people's perspectives during these couple of years. I mostly skimmed.
This book is a collection of essays from 2019 to around 2021. 2023 has been a year is massive changes, putting these essays in the unfortunate status of being outdated already, while not old enough as to yet have historical value to illustrate people's perspectives during these couple of years. I mostly skimmed.
January 21, 2025
From respected Singaporean diplomat Kishore Mahbubani, this collection of some of his sharpest and wittiest writings related to globalization and the role of the American, Western, Chinese and Asian models of development in it. Totally relevant to the current analysis in which visions of the end of globalization and the idea that bipolar and hemispheric confrontation is inevitable predominate.
December 31, 2022
really intriguing and love the non-western pov
July 20, 2023
A good collection of thoughts; however, a lot of repeat of the same arguments. Overall, I enjoyed all aspects of the views given by Kishore Mahbubani.
September 13, 2023
It is a book about Humanity
Many concerns raised prior to Year 2000, are happening in 2023
Solutions suggested for a better future worldwide are practical
Read for humanity
Many concerns raised prior to Year 2000, are happening in 2023
Solutions suggested for a better future worldwide are practical
Read for humanity
June 30, 2024
De los pocos libros de politica q me he leido en mi vida pero este señor escribe pec. Saque un 9 en el trabajo asiq gracias amore
September 13, 2024
Very interesting ideas, but articles and even down to certain phrases can get a bit repetitive.
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