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Are We Alone?
Two scientists, chronicling past and current research concerning extraterrestrials, calculate the possibility of life in outer space and consider the chances that earthlings may be the first space colonists
262 pages
First published January 1, 1981
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January 6, 2025
A SOMEWHAT ‘SKEPTICAL’ CONCLUSION THAT, BASICALLY, WE ARE ‘ALONE’
Authors Robert Rood (an astronomer) and James Trefil (a physicist) wrote in the Preface to the paperback edition of this 1981 book, “Only in the era of space astronomy was Mars found to be the dry, barren world it is… So the search for ETI [extraterrestrial intelligence] must turn to other planetary systems. Surely in the billions and billions of stars … there must be some that serve as a home for life… We try to approach this subject with a skepticism sharpened by what we have found on Mars and Venus… Even the most optimistic view of the search for ETI demands that civilizations exist with high technology for millions of years. We argue that the only long-term technological [solution] for ourselves is to exploit the resources of space and become extraterrestrials. This line of reasoning leads us to an interesting and pessimistic conclusion about the existence of other ETI.”
They wrote in the original Preface, “The reason we feel this book is necessary is quite simple. We see an enormous gap in the perception of the problem of extraterrestrial intelligence by the public and by the scientific community. For the past two decades, science writers and interpreters have been influenced primarily by scientists who are very optimistic about our chances of finding nonhuman life in the galaxy… But in private gatherings where scientists feel free to … talk off the record, it has long been obvious to us that there is an enormous skepticism about the kind of numbers that are being thrown around in the ETI debate. Our purpose in this book is twofold. First, we want to discuss those aspects of scientific knowledge that bear on the question of ETI, pointing out what knowledge is firm, which areas are shaky, and which areas would benefit from more research effort. Second, we shall advance our own rather skeptical conclusions on the subject… we [agreed]… that at most, there could be only a few intelligent races in the galaxy… this view is now considered somewhat heretical outside of scientific circles.”
They state, “In essence, we shall argue that our present understanding of the processes involved in the Green Bank equation makes even the conventional ‘conservative’ value ... overly optimistic and gives credence to the view that we might be alone.” (Pg. 8)
They assert, “it is reasonable to suppose that all living systems are carbon-based. This does not mean, however, that we are assuming that all life forms must be similar to us in any but this most basic way… There is no known reason why life forms based on different combinations of amino acids would not exist, nor is there any reason to expect that they should resemble human beings any more than we resemble pine trees… Carbon chauvinism, therefore, in no way restricts possibilities of the development of a wide variety of intelligent life forms, if such life forms are seen to be possible on other grounds.” (Pg. 84)
The contend, “panspermia… cannot be disproved. There are, however, a number of points that seem to make the idea pretty unlikely… Polymers raining down on the earth from space would… tend to be broken down to their constituent parts… It is extremely unlikely, from a biological point of view, that organisms that evolvle to match the conditions in a cometary nucleus could survive a sudden transition to earth… We see… that the idea of extraterrestrial origins for life on earth (and, by extension, for life elsewhere) does not stand up well to detailed scrutiny. Consequently, we regard ‘planetary chauvinism’ as the best available hypothesis…” (Pg. 110-111)
They outline “the special features of the earth; 1. Earth is a planet in the system of a single G star. 2. It is in the narrow band about that single G star where water will neither boil or freeze for the billions of years necessary to produce life. 3. It has a large moon, which means that there are appreciable and VARIABLE tides, leading to numerous tidal pools. 4. The tilt of the earth’s axis is just enough so that, in conjunction with the influence of other planets, periodic changes in the climate occur… Although the probability of any one of these features being present on a planet may not be impossibly small, the probability that all four will be present at the same time is. So maybe the earth IS special, after all.” (Pg. 125)
They argue, “Sooner or later every growing technical culture will have to … choose between steady state and expanding futures… If it chooses to expand… It will… become a culture increasingly based on space travel and space colonization. It is reasonable to assume, therefore, that any ETI that we are likely to encounter will be in the process of exploring and exploiting its own solar system…” (Pg. 184)
They acknowledge the question, “how can we explain the total lack of evidence for an extraterrestrial presence on earth?” They suggest, “The only conclusion we can draw… is that either (1) we are the first civilization in the galaxy to reach the technological state, or (2) some other race … just hasn’t reached us yet… The absence of an extraterrestrial presence therefore leads immediately to the conclusion that there are only a few technological civilizations in our galaxy.” (Pg. 218)
Trefil concludes, “the evidence we have at present clearly favors the conclusion that we are alone… we are special. But we are living on an insignificant speck of rock going around an undistinguished star in a low-rent section of the galaxy. We are not the center of the universe. Maybe so, but we are special… Because only on this insignificant speck of rock have beings evolved who can look at the universe and ask the question, ‘Why?’ If I were a religious man, I would say that everything we have learned about life in the past twenty years shows that we are unique, and therefore special in God’s sight. Instead I shall say that what we have learned shows that it matters a great deal what happens to us… If we succeed in destroying ourselves… the entire galaxy will have lost the fruit of a 15-billion-year experiment in the formation of sentient life.” (Pg. 251-252)
This book will be of interest to those studying the question of ETIs, and related topics.
Authors Robert Rood (an astronomer) and James Trefil (a physicist) wrote in the Preface to the paperback edition of this 1981 book, “Only in the era of space astronomy was Mars found to be the dry, barren world it is… So the search for ETI [extraterrestrial intelligence] must turn to other planetary systems. Surely in the billions and billions of stars … there must be some that serve as a home for life… We try to approach this subject with a skepticism sharpened by what we have found on Mars and Venus… Even the most optimistic view of the search for ETI demands that civilizations exist with high technology for millions of years. We argue that the only long-term technological [solution] for ourselves is to exploit the resources of space and become extraterrestrials. This line of reasoning leads us to an interesting and pessimistic conclusion about the existence of other ETI.”
They wrote in the original Preface, “The reason we feel this book is necessary is quite simple. We see an enormous gap in the perception of the problem of extraterrestrial intelligence by the public and by the scientific community. For the past two decades, science writers and interpreters have been influenced primarily by scientists who are very optimistic about our chances of finding nonhuman life in the galaxy… But in private gatherings where scientists feel free to … talk off the record, it has long been obvious to us that there is an enormous skepticism about the kind of numbers that are being thrown around in the ETI debate. Our purpose in this book is twofold. First, we want to discuss those aspects of scientific knowledge that bear on the question of ETI, pointing out what knowledge is firm, which areas are shaky, and which areas would benefit from more research effort. Second, we shall advance our own rather skeptical conclusions on the subject… we [agreed]… that at most, there could be only a few intelligent races in the galaxy… this view is now considered somewhat heretical outside of scientific circles.”
They state, “In essence, we shall argue that our present understanding of the processes involved in the Green Bank equation makes even the conventional ‘conservative’ value ... overly optimistic and gives credence to the view that we might be alone.” (Pg. 8)
They assert, “it is reasonable to suppose that all living systems are carbon-based. This does not mean, however, that we are assuming that all life forms must be similar to us in any but this most basic way… There is no known reason why life forms based on different combinations of amino acids would not exist, nor is there any reason to expect that they should resemble human beings any more than we resemble pine trees… Carbon chauvinism, therefore, in no way restricts possibilities of the development of a wide variety of intelligent life forms, if such life forms are seen to be possible on other grounds.” (Pg. 84)
The contend, “panspermia… cannot be disproved. There are, however, a number of points that seem to make the idea pretty unlikely… Polymers raining down on the earth from space would… tend to be broken down to their constituent parts… It is extremely unlikely, from a biological point of view, that organisms that evolvle to match the conditions in a cometary nucleus could survive a sudden transition to earth… We see… that the idea of extraterrestrial origins for life on earth (and, by extension, for life elsewhere) does not stand up well to detailed scrutiny. Consequently, we regard ‘planetary chauvinism’ as the best available hypothesis…” (Pg. 110-111)
They outline “the special features of the earth; 1. Earth is a planet in the system of a single G star. 2. It is in the narrow band about that single G star where water will neither boil or freeze for the billions of years necessary to produce life. 3. It has a large moon, which means that there are appreciable and VARIABLE tides, leading to numerous tidal pools. 4. The tilt of the earth’s axis is just enough so that, in conjunction with the influence of other planets, periodic changes in the climate occur… Although the probability of any one of these features being present on a planet may not be impossibly small, the probability that all four will be present at the same time is. So maybe the earth IS special, after all.” (Pg. 125)
They argue, “Sooner or later every growing technical culture will have to … choose between steady state and expanding futures… If it chooses to expand… It will… become a culture increasingly based on space travel and space colonization. It is reasonable to assume, therefore, that any ETI that we are likely to encounter will be in the process of exploring and exploiting its own solar system…” (Pg. 184)
They acknowledge the question, “how can we explain the total lack of evidence for an extraterrestrial presence on earth?” They suggest, “The only conclusion we can draw… is that either (1) we are the first civilization in the galaxy to reach the technological state, or (2) some other race … just hasn’t reached us yet… The absence of an extraterrestrial presence therefore leads immediately to the conclusion that there are only a few technological civilizations in our galaxy.” (Pg. 218)
Trefil concludes, “the evidence we have at present clearly favors the conclusion that we are alone… we are special. But we are living on an insignificant speck of rock going around an undistinguished star in a low-rent section of the galaxy. We are not the center of the universe. Maybe so, but we are special… Because only on this insignificant speck of rock have beings evolved who can look at the universe and ask the question, ‘Why?’ If I were a religious man, I would say that everything we have learned about life in the past twenty years shows that we are unique, and therefore special in God’s sight. Instead I shall say that what we have learned shows that it matters a great deal what happens to us… If we succeed in destroying ourselves… the entire galaxy will have lost the fruit of a 15-billion-year experiment in the formation of sentient life.” (Pg. 251-252)
This book will be of interest to those studying the question of ETIs, and related topics.
June 11, 2018
Wow, a book that argues against the likelihood of alien invaders. It's quite old, and I'm sure the science is outdated, but it seemed fairly sensible overall. A bit boring to be honest.
March 13, 2020
The title of the first chapter is 'We are not alone'. Way to bury the lead, guys
Displaying 1 - 3 of 3 reviews