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Working with the Future: Ideas and Tools to Govern Uncertainty
Poli's book is
Theoretically robust
Provides a description of some of the major methods in the field
Describes some major applications (army and government, schools)
Shows quite a few cases of re-framing
Suggests connections with present frontiers of scientific research
A systematic, engaging introduction to futures studies, that any well-educated person will be able to follow
Provides a framework for understanding the complexity and the uncertainty of the present situation
The book distinguishes correct from wrong ways to understand the future.
Theoretically robust
Provides a description of some of the major methods in the field
Describes some major applications (army and government, schools)
Shows quite a few cases of re-framing
Suggests connections with present frontiers of scientific research
A systematic, engaging introduction to futures studies, that any well-educated person will be able to follow
Provides a framework for understanding the complexity and the uncertainty of the present situation
The book distinguishes correct from wrong ways to understand the future.
168 pages, Paperback
Published October 1, 2019
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Displaying 1 - 2 of 2 reviews
February 8, 2021
As someone new to futures theory and methods, I enjoyed this concise book. We had a go at backcasting and futures wheel methods in a course - they were un-intuitive, surprising, and evident of the value of diverse collective intelligence when facing questions about the future.
According to Poli, one of the key issues futures studies aim to solve is the widespread orientation (in private lives, education, business, politics...) toward the future and risk management as a repetition of patterns from the past, or repetition of the present, despite the creativity of the complex systems we live in, the unexpected turns throughout our history, and the acceleration of trends and change in the 20th and 21st centuries. Poli introduces exercises of foresight (unlike forecasting, expecting innovation and discontinuities) and anticipation (developing actions to prevent the most undesirable, cope with the probable, and work toward desirable futures) and shares his views on what anticipatory governance and education could look like. His recommendation to always use several analytical frameworks in futures exercises reminds me of Moral Uncertainty and economic pluralism in Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st-Century Economist.
I missed evidence of successful application, and the account felt a bit one-sided and didn't acknowledge how it might be biased and limited in the base of sources. There are issues with constructing future only as something to be 'used', the present as something to be 'penetrated' etc. Furthermore, I am wary of the desire expressed to distinguish futures studies from other scientific fields (indicated multiple times to be inferior) and to bring universal 'futures literacy' to the world from what seems to be a single hub in the white Western world.
According to Poli, one of the key issues futures studies aim to solve is the widespread orientation (in private lives, education, business, politics...) toward the future and risk management as a repetition of patterns from the past, or repetition of the present, despite the creativity of the complex systems we live in, the unexpected turns throughout our history, and the acceleration of trends and change in the 20th and 21st centuries. Poli introduces exercises of foresight (unlike forecasting, expecting innovation and discontinuities) and anticipation (developing actions to prevent the most undesirable, cope with the probable, and work toward desirable futures) and shares his views on what anticipatory governance and education could look like. His recommendation to always use several analytical frameworks in futures exercises reminds me of Moral Uncertainty and economic pluralism in Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st-Century Economist.
I missed evidence of successful application, and the account felt a bit one-sided and didn't acknowledge how it might be biased and limited in the base of sources. There are issues with constructing future only as something to be 'used', the present as something to be 'penetrated' etc. Furthermore, I am wary of the desire expressed to distinguish futures studies from other scientific fields (indicated multiple times to be inferior) and to bring universal 'futures literacy' to the world from what seems to be a single hub in the white Western world.
June 25, 2020
Exceptional introduction to future studies.
Displaying 1 - 2 of 2 reviews