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Five Rules for Tomorrow's Cities: Design in an Age of Urban Migration, Demographic Change, and a Disappearing Middle Class
How we design our cities over the next four decades will be critical for our planet. If we continue to spill excessive greenhouse gas into the atmosphere, we will run out of time to keep our global temperature from increasing. Since approximately 80% of greenhouse gases come from cities, it follows that in the design of cities lies the fate of the world.
As urban designers respond to the critical issue of climate change they must also address three cresting cultural the worldwide rural-to-urban migration; the collapse of global fertility rates; and the disappearance of the middle class. In Five Rules for Tomorrow’s Cities , planning and design expert Patrick Condon explains how urban designers can assimilate these interconnected changes into their work.
Condon shows how the very things that constrain cities—climate change, migration, financial stress, population change—could actually enable the emergence of a more equitable and resource-efficient city. He provides five rules for urban (1) See the City as a System; (2) Recognize Patterns in the Urban Environment; (3) Apply Lighter, Greener, Smarter Infrastructure; (4) Strengthen Social and Economic Urban Resilience; and (5) Adapt to Shifts in Jobs, Retail, and Wages.
In Five Rules for Tomorrow’s Cities , Condon provides grounded and financially feasible design examples for tomorrow’s sustainable cities, and the design tools needed to achieve them.
As urban designers respond to the critical issue of climate change they must also address three cresting cultural the worldwide rural-to-urban migration; the collapse of global fertility rates; and the disappearance of the middle class. In Five Rules for Tomorrow’s Cities , planning and design expert Patrick Condon explains how urban designers can assimilate these interconnected changes into their work.
Condon shows how the very things that constrain cities—climate change, migration, financial stress, population change—could actually enable the emergence of a more equitable and resource-efficient city. He provides five rules for urban (1) See the City as a System; (2) Recognize Patterns in the Urban Environment; (3) Apply Lighter, Greener, Smarter Infrastructure; (4) Strengthen Social and Economic Urban Resilience; and (5) Adapt to Shifts in Jobs, Retail, and Wages.
In Five Rules for Tomorrow’s Cities , Condon provides grounded and financially feasible design examples for tomorrow’s sustainable cities, and the design tools needed to achieve them.
240 pages, Paperback
First published January 16, 2020
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Displaying 1 - 6 of 6 reviews
March 6, 2020
Another academic bureaucrat who knows what is best for you and your children, and he needs a bigger house than the taxpayers are offering him right now.
May 20, 2020
The most obviously sensible part of this book explains that over the next few decades, there will be three worldwide waves affecting cities: (1) rural to urban migration (at least outside the most affluent nations); 2) collapsing birth rates, leading to an aging society; and 3) growing inequality, which means that people born after the Baby Boom will be unable to afford as much housing as they once did.
Condon then discusses a variety of rules- some of which are less obviously linked to these waves than others. Although this book is sometimes too abstract for my taste and sometimes too left-wing, it nevertheless is one of these books that is worth reading even if you disagree with chunks of it.
In some ways, Condon is a traditional new urbanist; for example, he is a strong supporter of grid streets because the grid "maximizes the number of street connections and thus provides the least resistance to movement." He believes that North American infrastructure (both highway and transit) is oversized and overexpensive- though since U.S. local governments seem to suffer more from pension costs than from infrastructure costs, I wonder if this downside is as important as he thinks. He points out that single-use zoning frustrates entrepreneurial energy, taking land that could be used for new businesses and reserving it for politically favored uses. While some leftists seek to preserve land for industrial use, Condon argues that this strategy will not bring industrial jobs back to North America; manufacturing is simply too productive to employ huge numbers of Americans.
His discussion of housing costs is accessible yet likely to be controversial. He argues that because permissive zoning is likely to raise land costs, the best way to make housing more affordable is to flood the market with public housing, which he proposes to do by taxing land heavily to drive down land costs. But if more permissive zoning raises land costs, why do permissive Sun Belt cities have lower rents than more restrictive coastal cities?
Condon then discusses a variety of rules- some of which are less obviously linked to these waves than others. Although this book is sometimes too abstract for my taste and sometimes too left-wing, it nevertheless is one of these books that is worth reading even if you disagree with chunks of it.
In some ways, Condon is a traditional new urbanist; for example, he is a strong supporter of grid streets because the grid "maximizes the number of street connections and thus provides the least resistance to movement." He believes that North American infrastructure (both highway and transit) is oversized and overexpensive- though since U.S. local governments seem to suffer more from pension costs than from infrastructure costs, I wonder if this downside is as important as he thinks. He points out that single-use zoning frustrates entrepreneurial energy, taking land that could be used for new businesses and reserving it for politically favored uses. While some leftists seek to preserve land for industrial use, Condon argues that this strategy will not bring industrial jobs back to North America; manufacturing is simply too productive to employ huge numbers of Americans.
His discussion of housing costs is accessible yet likely to be controversial. He argues that because permissive zoning is likely to raise land costs, the best way to make housing more affordable is to flood the market with public housing, which he proposes to do by taxing land heavily to drive down land costs. But if more permissive zoning raises land costs, why do permissive Sun Belt cities have lower rents than more restrictive coastal cities?
July 13, 2023
I participated in a workshop of Dr Condon's back in 2020, and purchased a copy of his book as a result. Although his ideas, radical they may be, seem to be based in common sense, in my opinion he places an unrealistic amount of confidence and reliance on the practice of urban design. He makes an excellent case for letting communities grow and prosper organically. He makes absolutely no case for urban design offering any sort of relief from draconian zoning and other controls that make it next to impossible for organic economic livelihoods to prosper - other than to state his belief that it should.
Well, maybe it 'should,' but it simply isn't likely.
Having worked in land use and zoning most of my adult life, and finally breaking free of it a few years ago in favor of a more useful career in parks planning and improvements, I fully agree that zoning is the problem. But hidden behind these codes, and strongly backing them, is the belief by many politicians and other decision-makers that in order for communities to prosper, and even survive in many cases, we must bend to the wishes of the wealthy and powerful. Land owners, bankers, developers, builders, real estate brokers. Zoning conforms exactly to what these power-wielders want, and the actual needs and goals of the community be damned. See, it is relatively easy to change zoning to allow what the powerful desire. All you need is a couple of public hearings and a relatively skillful technical writer. But to change it to meet community needs? To address a lack of viable commercial space for small producers and artisans? To build a school? To - gasp - require affordable housing? The well-funded powerful will rise up and fan the flames of fear, distributing "studies" and "information" and suddenly your public hearings are full of angry voices shouting that their tax dollars do not support such changes. The fearful can be manipulated like sheep, and almost never disappoint. And so, time and time again, proposals that would actually improve the lot of the not-so-powerful fail, never getting past the starting line of a majority vote in favor.
Condon barely acknowledges these truths, and so his argument, in spite of the title of the book, is missing a major component: that of a real solution. Urban designers can potentially design all sorts of small spaces and interlinked uses, with lovely gardens and aesthetically pleasing structures that assuredly take into account the health, safety, and welfare so jealously guarded under the purview of zoning. Still, his examples are interesting, even if they could never be transmogrified to the modern US without a failure of the powerful. Which, unfortunately, means we are still looking for answers.
Well, maybe it 'should,' but it simply isn't likely.
Having worked in land use and zoning most of my adult life, and finally breaking free of it a few years ago in favor of a more useful career in parks planning and improvements, I fully agree that zoning is the problem. But hidden behind these codes, and strongly backing them, is the belief by many politicians and other decision-makers that in order for communities to prosper, and even survive in many cases, we must bend to the wishes of the wealthy and powerful. Land owners, bankers, developers, builders, real estate brokers. Zoning conforms exactly to what these power-wielders want, and the actual needs and goals of the community be damned. See, it is relatively easy to change zoning to allow what the powerful desire. All you need is a couple of public hearings and a relatively skillful technical writer. But to change it to meet community needs? To address a lack of viable commercial space for small producers and artisans? To build a school? To - gasp - require affordable housing? The well-funded powerful will rise up and fan the flames of fear, distributing "studies" and "information" and suddenly your public hearings are full of angry voices shouting that their tax dollars do not support such changes. The fearful can be manipulated like sheep, and almost never disappoint. And so, time and time again, proposals that would actually improve the lot of the not-so-powerful fail, never getting past the starting line of a majority vote in favor.
Condon barely acknowledges these truths, and so his argument, in spite of the title of the book, is missing a major component: that of a real solution. Urban designers can potentially design all sorts of small spaces and interlinked uses, with lovely gardens and aesthetically pleasing structures that assuredly take into account the health, safety, and welfare so jealously guarded under the purview of zoning. Still, his examples are interesting, even if they could never be transmogrified to the modern US without a failure of the powerful. Which, unfortunately, means we are still looking for answers.
June 2, 2021
Condon combines positivity (we can do this!) with urgency (we must do this!), in view of climate change and persistent economic and demographic trends. His five rules are:
1) following Jane Jacobs, see the city not as a set of isolated problems (e.g. solve parking shortage by building more parking lots) but as an integrated and complex system;
2) following Christopher Alexander ("A City is Not a Tree," Architectural Forum, 1965), see the city as a "semi-lattice" series of patterns that fail when all are run through the city center;
3) make infrastructure lighter, greener, and smarter i.e. one reason we have such a maintenance backlog is that we've been profligate in building the stuff in the first place;
4) use affordable housing design that accounts for the need for financing, social resilience, change over time, and accommodating an aging population; and
5) adapt to new economic realities "where stagnant salaries are the norm, secure employment increasingly rare, large student loan obligations common, and elevated housing costs nearly universal" (p. 135).
Not much in here will shock urbanists, but it's nice to have examples of successful adaptations, from the olden days (the traditional grid pattern, 1920s Vienna's scheme for building quality affordable housing through tax policy) as well as recent innovations (removing a highway and uncapping a river in Seoul, hiving (allowing subdivision of housing parcels) in Vancouver, transforming big box stores into commercial bazaars or other arrangements appropriate to immigrant cultures). The important underlying theme seems to be that problems can be solved if we accept reality and want to solve them.
1) following Jane Jacobs, see the city not as a set of isolated problems (e.g. solve parking shortage by building more parking lots) but as an integrated and complex system;
2) following Christopher Alexander ("A City is Not a Tree," Architectural Forum, 1965), see the city as a "semi-lattice" series of patterns that fail when all are run through the city center;
3) make infrastructure lighter, greener, and smarter i.e. one reason we have such a maintenance backlog is that we've been profligate in building the stuff in the first place;
4) use affordable housing design that accounts for the need for financing, social resilience, change over time, and accommodating an aging population; and
5) adapt to new economic realities "where stagnant salaries are the norm, secure employment increasingly rare, large student loan obligations common, and elevated housing costs nearly universal" (p. 135).
Not much in here will shock urbanists, but it's nice to have examples of successful adaptations, from the olden days (the traditional grid pattern, 1920s Vienna's scheme for building quality affordable housing through tax policy) as well as recent innovations (removing a highway and uncapping a river in Seoul, hiving (allowing subdivision of housing parcels) in Vancouver, transforming big box stores into commercial bazaars or other arrangements appropriate to immigrant cultures). The important underlying theme seems to be that problems can be solved if we accept reality and want to solve them.
April 15, 2020
The ideas to good cities border on so abstract as not to be useful.
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Displaying 1 - 6 of 6 reviews