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Pywrite: A Contrarian's Approach to Investing
This book shows how I, a retired hedge fund manager, have invested my family’s money since early 2007. Each chapter was written “in real time”. When I joined a hedge fund in 1968, fewer than ten existed. After 31 years on Wall Street, primarily doing hedged investing, I retired in 1995. I am a contrarian and risk averse. My approach now is far more passive than during those hedge fund days and is one that many investors could replicate. However, this requires unusual discipline and patience - not for everyone.
With the exception of two articles published in Barron’s and the AAII Journal, this book is a compilation of all and only the 55 posts that I have published so far in my blog “Pywrite" during those eleven years. No changes have been made in the text of these posts—just occasional corrections in typos or grammar. So the “warts” have been left in.
Among the issues discussed are: the effect of interest rates on price to earnings ratios, how the Federal Reserve affects markets, sentiment indicators, cash as a legitimate asset class, how Shiller’s CAPE Index can be useful in rebalancing long duration nontaxable assets such as retirement and Section 529 monies, mean reversion, the importance of demographics, the efficacy of technical analysis, and Wall Street’s bullish bias. There is particular emphasis on how to buy during bear markets and sell during bull markets.
The book is formatted chronologically with each post a “chapter”. For those who prefer not to “wade through the weeds” of 55 chapters, an additional, final chapter is a summary of my methodology.
Hopefully this effort will be thought provoking and perhaps even alter the behavior of some whose tendency is to “buy high and sell low”.
With the exception of two articles published in Barron’s and the AAII Journal, this book is a compilation of all and only the 55 posts that I have published so far in my blog “Pywrite" during those eleven years. No changes have been made in the text of these posts—just occasional corrections in typos or grammar. So the “warts” have been left in.
Among the issues discussed are: the effect of interest rates on price to earnings ratios, how the Federal Reserve affects markets, sentiment indicators, cash as a legitimate asset class, how Shiller’s CAPE Index can be useful in rebalancing long duration nontaxable assets such as retirement and Section 529 monies, mean reversion, the importance of demographics, the efficacy of technical analysis, and Wall Street’s bullish bias. There is particular emphasis on how to buy during bear markets and sell during bull markets.
The book is formatted chronologically with each post a “chapter”. For those who prefer not to “wade through the weeds” of 55 chapters, an additional, final chapter is a summary of my methodology.
Hopefully this effort will be thought provoking and perhaps even alter the behavior of some whose tendency is to “buy high and sell low”.
184 pages, Kindle Edition
Published July 17, 2018
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