The ANC has governed South Africa for more than two decades but its iron grip is slipping. For the first time since the advent of democracy in 1994 there is no guarantee that it will retain power. If ANC support drops below 50% in the 2019 elections, the political landscape will be transformed we will be governed by a coalition, and the consequences will be felt by everyone. One of South Africa's brightest political minds, Leon Schreiber, explores the myriad possibilities - and effects - of coalition country. Will Mmusi Maimane and Julius Malema be in charge? Or will the ANC and the EFF join forces? What will this mean for our nation? A must-read for every South African who wants to prepare for this new reality.
A great read. Schreiber accurately describes the dilemma we all face as voters in South Africa. His ranking of the probabilistic outcomes of the 2019 election, are however, in my view, wishful thinking. The likelihood of a DA minority government topping that list is well nigh impossible. If the ANC does not retain a slim majority – which I believe it will – the ANC is likely to have a larger minority than the DA, which means that if the DA cannot cobble together a broad coalition (I doubt it can), then the ANC is likely to end up being the minority government, with the EFF doing as it has done in Johannesburg and Tshwane with the DA – lending its support when the matter at hand suits its questionable agenda, otherwise withholding it.