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Searching for the Catastrophe Signal: The Origins of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – the IPCC – the global authority on climate science, is behind some of the most important policy changes in the history of industrial society. It is therefore probably the most influential scientific body in the world.Yet the surprising story of how it came to prominence is little known. Its origins can be traced back to earlier scares over the effects of supersonic transportation and ozone layer depletion, which taught political elites that science-based scares could be powerful drivers of policy action. It was as an authority fit to deliver the required evidence on climate change that the IPCC came into being. However, in the rush towards a climate treaty, IPCC scientists continued to report that evidence of manmade climate change should not be expected for decades. Without a 'catastrophe signal' that could justify a policy response, the panel faced its imminent demise.
386 pages, Paperback
Published November 21, 2017
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Displaying 1 - 3 of 3 reviews
February 14, 2018
The Catastrophe Signal (2017) by Bernie Lewin is an interesting, but sometimes hard going history of atmospheric climate panels and conferences. The book goes through the panels, research and various investigations that leads up to the International Panel on Climate Change IPCC becoming the dominant greenhouse gas adjudicating panel that provides scientific justification for attempt to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
It covers the research into the effects of the Supersonic Transport (SST) on the Ozone layer, to people worried about global cooling in the 1970s to the Ozone Hole Research and panels in the 1980s and later the IPCC. It's really very interesting, the political justification for much of the research and the early reactions of bodies like the WMO to this kind of research is fascinating. It would be rare to find anyone today who is even aware of the worry about global climate of the SST.
It is also remarkable to read about how action on Ozone was taken before there really was a scientific consensus on the effects. Again, it's also remarkable to find that much of this action was supported strongly by conservative governments around the world.
The book is more of a valuable serious history than an entertaining read, it is, quite frankly due to the scholarly nature a bit arduous in parts. But it is also rewarding. It becomes clear that activists have driven the process for negotiations and consensus repeatedly. In different cases the outcomes have been very different. On the SST and global cooling effectively nothing happened, on Ozone steps were taken and then scientific justification was found.
It covers the research into the effects of the Supersonic Transport (SST) on the Ozone layer, to people worried about global cooling in the 1970s to the Ozone Hole Research and panels in the 1980s and later the IPCC. It's really very interesting, the political justification for much of the research and the early reactions of bodies like the WMO to this kind of research is fascinating. It would be rare to find anyone today who is even aware of the worry about global climate of the SST.
It is also remarkable to read about how action on Ozone was taken before there really was a scientific consensus on the effects. Again, it's also remarkable to find that much of this action was supported strongly by conservative governments around the world.
The book is more of a valuable serious history than an entertaining read, it is, quite frankly due to the scholarly nature a bit arduous in parts. But it is also rewarding. It becomes clear that activists have driven the process for negotiations and consensus repeatedly. In different cases the outcomes have been very different. On the SST and global cooling effectively nothing happened, on Ozone steps were taken and then scientific justification was found.
July 21, 2020
Good historical view of the environmental movement.
March 22, 2024
Esta obra presenta una tesis, para mí, totalmente reveladora, o desconocida, y se trata de cómo ciertos investigadores e instituciones climáticas y políticas han puesto de moda algunas sustancias y fenómenos atmosféricos para defender el cambio climático. Lo que el libro defiende es que el consenso científico respecto a esas sustancias (agujero del ozono, CO2, vapor de agua, etc) era totalmente contrario al que ahora tenemos, y que fueron unos pocos científicos tras intereses económicos sospechosos los que lo pusieron en el candelero.
No se trata de un libro negacionista, sino de un libro científico, totalmente respaldado por estudios, informes y referencias científicas. De hecho, se me ha hecho en muchas ocasiones bastante duro de entender la química que explicaba a lo largo de sus páginas. Y es que más que un libro de lectura, parece un libro informe sobre los lobbies del cambio climático.
La sinopsis del libro me parece muy acertada de lo que cuenta: "La sorprendente historia de cómo llegó a la fama el IPCC es poco conocida. Sus orígenes se remontan a pánicos anteriores por los efectos del transporte supersónico y el agotamiento de la capa de ozono, que enseñaron a las élites políticas que los temores basados en la ciencia podrían ser poderosos impulsores de acciones políticas. El IPCC nació como autoridad capacitada para presentar la evidencia requerida sobre el cambio climático.
Sin embargo, en la prisa por lograr un tratado sobre el clima, los científicos del IPCC continuaron informando que la evidencia de un cambio climático provocado por el hombre era escasa y que no debería esperarse la confirmación de un efecto provocado por el hombre hasta dentro de décadas. Sin una "señal de catástrofe" que pudiera justificar una respuesta política, el panel enfrentó su inminente desaparición."
No se trata de un libro negacionista, sino de un libro científico, totalmente respaldado por estudios, informes y referencias científicas. De hecho, se me ha hecho en muchas ocasiones bastante duro de entender la química que explicaba a lo largo de sus páginas. Y es que más que un libro de lectura, parece un libro informe sobre los lobbies del cambio climático.
La sinopsis del libro me parece muy acertada de lo que cuenta: "La sorprendente historia de cómo llegó a la fama el IPCC es poco conocida. Sus orígenes se remontan a pánicos anteriores por los efectos del transporte supersónico y el agotamiento de la capa de ozono, que enseñaron a las élites políticas que los temores basados en la ciencia podrían ser poderosos impulsores de acciones políticas. El IPCC nació como autoridad capacitada para presentar la evidencia requerida sobre el cambio climático.
Sin embargo, en la prisa por lograr un tratado sobre el clima, los científicos del IPCC continuaron informando que la evidencia de un cambio climático provocado por el hombre era escasa y que no debería esperarse la confirmación de un efecto provocado por el hombre hasta dentro de décadas. Sin una "señal de catástrofe" que pudiera justificar una respuesta política, el panel enfrentó su inminente desaparición."
Displaying 1 - 3 of 3 reviews