Errors in Intelligence Analysis: A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Mercyhurst University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for The Degree of Master of Science in Applied Intelligence

by By: Rebeka Melber

Intelligence Analysis is done in a noisy environment. Analysts are expected to come to conclusions about events with ambiguous information and short time frames. When they are charged with 'filling the gaps' of a situation, the mind uses heuristics, or mental shortcuts to do a bulk of the work. These mental shortcuts use information stored in the brain from the past to fill in the blanks about the future. The various mental errors that exist in the brain taint the information and analysis can become faulty.

A substantial body of information exists about bias in analysis. Most of the experiments done have been conducted on graduate students in a laboratory setting. There is a lack of information on what 'real-life' analysts in the field think about bias. The Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity is working to create programs to identify and mitigate bias in analysis. For their project they chose six biases to focus on. This thesis, along with the accompanying survey asked analysts in the intelligence community about the types of mental errors they see on a regular basis when producing analytic products. In comparing my list of mental errors with IARPA's cognitive biases, I determined that cognitive bias' are not the sole cause of faulty intelligence analysis. Based on the survey, I found that a number of errors and biases exist that lead to faulty intelligence, and more often than not, it's a combination of errors at work.

139 pages, Kindle Edition

Published September 30, 2016