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Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies―Report 2
The term disruptive technology describes a technology that results in a sudden change affecting already established technologies or markets. Disruptive technologies cause one or more discontinuities in the normal evolutionary life cycle of technology. This may lead to an unexpected destabilization of an older technology order and an opportunity for new competitors to displace incumbents. Frequently cited examples include digital photography and desktop publishing.
The first report of the series, Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies, discussed how technology forecasts were historically made, assessed various existing forecasting systems, and identified desirable attributes of a next-generation persistent long-term forecasting system for disruptive technologies. This second book attempts to sketch out high-level forecasting system designs. In addition, the book provides further evaluation of the system attributes defined in the first report, and evidence of the feasibility of creating a system with those attributes. Together, the reports are intended to help the Department of Defense and the intelligence community identify and develop a forecasting system that will assist in detecting and tracking global technology trends, producing persistent long-term forecasts of disruptive technologies, and characterizing their potential impact on future U.S. warfighting and homeland defense capabilities.
The first report of the series, Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies, discussed how technology forecasts were historically made, assessed various existing forecasting systems, and identified desirable attributes of a next-generation persistent long-term forecasting system for disruptive technologies. This second book attempts to sketch out high-level forecasting system designs. In addition, the book provides further evaluation of the system attributes defined in the first report, and evidence of the feasibility of creating a system with those attributes. Together, the reports are intended to help the Department of Defense and the intelligence community identify and develop a forecasting system that will assist in detecting and tracking global technology trends, producing persistent long-term forecasts of disruptive technologies, and characterizing their potential impact on future U.S. warfighting and homeland defense capabilities.
341 pages, Hardcover
First published July 2, 2010
About the author
National Research Council
6,245 books43 followersThe National Research Council (NRC) functions under the auspices of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS), the National Academy of Engineering (NAE), and the Institute of Medicine (IOM). The NAS, NAE, IOM, and NRC are part of a private, nonprofit institution that provides science, technology and health policy advice under a congressional charter signed by President Abraham Lincoln that was originally granted to the NAS in 1863. Under this charter, the NRC was established in 1916, the NAE in 1964, and the IOM in 1970. The four organizations are collectively referred to as the National Academies.
The mission of the NRC is to improve government decision making and public policy, increase public education and understanding, and promote the acquisition and dissemination of knowledge in matters involving science, engineering, technology, and health. The institution takes this charge seriously and works to inform policies and actions that have the power to improve the lives of people in the U.S. and around the world.
The NRC is committed to providing elected leaders, policy makers, and the public with expert advice based on sound scientific evidence. The NRC does not receive direct federal appropriations for its work. Individual projects are funded by federal agencies, foundations, other governmental and private sources, and the institution’s endowment. The work is made possible by 6,000 of the world’s top scientists, engineers, and other professionals who volunteer their time without compensation to serve on committees and participate in activities. The NRC is administered jointly by the NAS, NAE, and the IOM through the NRC Governing Board.
The core services involve collecting, analyzing, and sharing information and knowledge. The independence of the institution, combined with its unique ability to convene experts, allows it to be responsive to a host of requests.
The portfolio of activities includes:
* Consensus Studies: These comprehensive reports focus on major policy issues and provide recommendations for solving complex problems.
* Expert Meetings and Workshops: By convening symposia, workshops, meetings, and roundtables, the NRC connects professionals as well as the interested public and stimulates dialogue on diverse matters.
* Program and Research Management: At the request of state and federal agencies, the NRC manages and evaluates research programs, conducts program assessments, and reviews proposals.
* Fellowships: The NRC administers several postdoctoral fellowship programs.
Free Scientific Information: Publishing more than 200 reports and related publications each year, the institution is one of the largest providers of free scientific and technical information in the world. Most of it is now on the Web at www.nap.edu.
The mission of the NRC is to improve government decision making and public policy, increase public education and understanding, and promote the acquisition and dissemination of knowledge in matters involving science, engineering, technology, and health. The institution takes this charge seriously and works to inform policies and actions that have the power to improve the lives of people in the U.S. and around the world.
The NRC is committed to providing elected leaders, policy makers, and the public with expert advice based on sound scientific evidence. The NRC does not receive direct federal appropriations for its work. Individual projects are funded by federal agencies, foundations, other governmental and private sources, and the institution’s endowment. The work is made possible by 6,000 of the world’s top scientists, engineers, and other professionals who volunteer their time without compensation to serve on committees and participate in activities. The NRC is administered jointly by the NAS, NAE, and the IOM through the NRC Governing Board.
The core services involve collecting, analyzing, and sharing information and knowledge. The independence of the institution, combined with its unique ability to convene experts, allows it to be responsive to a host of requests.
The portfolio of activities includes:
* Consensus Studies: These comprehensive reports focus on major policy issues and provide recommendations for solving complex problems.
* Expert Meetings and Workshops: By convening symposia, workshops, meetings, and roundtables, the NRC connects professionals as well as the interested public and stimulates dialogue on diverse matters.
* Program and Research Management: At the request of state and federal agencies, the NRC manages and evaluates research programs, conducts program assessments, and reviews proposals.
* Fellowships: The NRC administers several postdoctoral fellowship programs.
Free Scientific Information: Publishing more than 200 reports and related publications each year, the institution is one of the largest providers of free scientific and technical information in the world. Most of it is now on the Web at www.nap.edu.
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