Odds On: The Making of an Evidence-Based Investor

by Matt Hall

Evidence Is the Key to Investment Success Odds The Making of an Evidence-Based Investor isn't just another investment advice book. It's a memoir, a manifesto, and a guide to the way investing should be. Odds On describes author Matt Hall's role in an ongoing revolution in the investment the shift from a traditional sales-driven, active-management model to a model that draws on academic evidence to better serve the real interests of investors. Matt's story begins with his first exposure to Wall Street, where he becomes disillusioned with the traditional investing model due to its inability to truly help clients. He stumbles into the emerging evidence-based investing world, and learns how to help investors reach their goals through methods that reflect the limits of our abilities to predict which investments will deliver the highest returns. Matt's unique approach to investing is built on a dual foundation of knowledge and knowledge gained through evidence-based strategies involving research, data, and logic, and purpose gained by personal reflection on what money and success truly mean. In Odds On , Matt's storytelling makes financial topics truly relevant and easy to understand, while his investment philosophy offers readers a chance to move beyond decisions based on anxiety and confusion, and manage wealth in ways that lead to greater success and a richer life.

Genres: Finance, Business, Money

208 pages, Hardcover

Published April 12, 2016

Reviews

[carolyn · Rating 2 out of 5]

I don't know. I read this book to (try to) understand investment logic. Lots of personal history before getting to the bottom line - and then the bottom line seemed pretty self-evident. When is intuition and guesswork ever better than using an evidence-based approach?

[Vikas Kukreja · Rating 2 out of 5]

The book could have been a blog with the conclusion that index funds are good and even within those, it's better to pick small cap, momentum or other anomalies for generating alpha rather than choosing active investing. That's all it is in this 200 page book. Rest is all padding !

[Firsh · Rating 3 out of 5]

So this one was fairly short but it goes against everything that I have learned from my investing guy who is writing a newsletter which I am proofreading. My guy also says that their method is evidence based and this guy also says that it is evidence based and both are right. So this Matt Hall character believes more in the efficient market theory and treats stocks and stock market as a casino, while my guy wrote a book detailing how it is a global webshop instead of a casino. So it's interesting to hear about both viewpoints, but I tend to err on the side of treating the stock market as a webshop instead of a casino. I don't like it when people attribute successes of renowned investors as just being lucky. I believe there is skill involved in stock picking and I'm absolutely not against stock picking. Although it was interesting to see whether a book like this could shake my foundation and nudge me toward index based investing. So far this has not happened and I like a mostly concentrated portfolio and this is currently beating the market so I'm happy with it. We've been doing this for like 7 or 8 years now. So I would call it rather consistent and I sleep well with it knowing that most of the stocks that are in my portfolio have been chosen deliberately by me and the few bad ones are representing only a minority.

As for the book, to say a few words about that as well, it was way too personal story based. And in the beginning he tells us that this is not going to be like a barrage of facts kind of dense book, but I actually prefer those kind of books to these anecdotal ones. He was battling with cancer and while a touching thing, I don't know how it belongs into this kind of book. If anything, it detracts from what it is trying to say.

[Elien · Rating 3 out of 5]

Interessante ideeën, tussen een heel Amerikaans en anekdotisch verhaal. Voornamelijk biografisch, deels informatief. Leest wel snel en ik heb zeker bijgeleerd.

[Alex Rickels · Rating 4 out of 5]

Matt Hall is an amazing story teller. He starts the story as a kid fresh out of college with little idea of what he should do (not unlike myself). He enters an investment firm that throws him into the fire immediately. He soon comes to realize that this firm is not about helping people make the right investment choices and ultimately increase their wealth. Instead, the firm is just a group of salesmen that have no idea what the products they are selling will do. Infuriated, he quits and later discovers a book on passive investing. The investment strategy enthralled him enough that he went to the author's firm and was able to cajole management enough to give him a chance at the firm.

He goes on to show that he really isn't a "pure" passive investor, but instead uses the Fama-French model to pick stocks based on size, market risk, and value. Fama has now updated the model to include two new factors: profitability and momentum. Hall coins this type of investing as evidence-based investing, meaning that the factors in the Fama-French model need to have occurred for decades in order for him to invest money based on the investment style.

Overall, this way to invest is great for retirement plans when a limited number of options are available to the user. However, I still think that Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger are closer to the correct way to invest and make outstanding returns. However, Hall's style has one huge advantage... you just pick the stock indexes and then you never have to look at them but once a year. You essentially free yourself from the shackles of checking your retirement every day and wondering how much you gained or loss.

Matt Hall seems to be a great person with a phenomenal personal story to tell. He was kind enough to write me back when I had questions about his investment philosophy. It's a quick read and an excellent story. I only give it 4 stars because I disagree with the investing style.

[Sean · Rating 4 out of 5]

Matt Hall provides an excellent and concise intro to evidence-based investing (or passive investing), delivered with a personal touch based on his experience starting his career in a hard-sell environment pushing poor investments. It's great to read about someone who's approach to investment advice in grounded in sincerely caring about his clients' needs and goals. "Manifesto" is a word used elsewhere to describe Hall's book--and it fits. Hall is emphatic, excited, maybe even evangelistic, about the strengths of what should be obvious--research and evidence are necessary to determining whether an investment is likely to work. Bonus: the book is meant for everyone to read, meaning that readers don't have to wade through graphs, charts, formulas, etc.

As an aside, I was a recent financial investment conference when someone stood up and said that money managers should go with X active investment because it performed so well last year. I immediately thought of a comment Hall made--just because X active investment performed well last year doesn't indicate that it will do so again this or next year. Without further data, we don't even know how well it did two years or more before. Read Odds On, and then perk up your ears when you hear about unproven and/or investment strategies and vehicles. You'll get better returns on your investments in the long-term.

[Zibby Owens · Rating 5 out of 5]

The subtitle sounds very business-y, but this is really just a personal story. The book talks a lot about the author's journey in life. The book offers lots of advice from his dad scattered throughout the book. When he quit law school, the author's dad pointed him in the right direction by saying, “I know you're passionate about two things. You love financial markets and investments, and you're really into golf. We know that you're not going to win the British Open, so what about finding a job in finance?” which is so classic. I love parents who tell it like it is. He also says, “Surround yourself with smart people and learn something valuable.”

The author wrote beautifully and openly about his battle with leukemia — the diagnosis, the not-knowing, and the treatment. He shared everything he learned during the process, especially about the way the doctors handled his treatment. I hate to say that the worst part of his life was almost the best part of the book, mostly because of his openness and willingness to share and the lighthearted tone he used throughout the book.

To listen to my interview with the author, go to my podcast at:
https://zibbyowens.com/transcript/mat...

[Brandon · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book mostly an autobiography where there author talks about his investing career and his path to Evidence Based Investing. The last couple of chapters really get to the heart of what Evidence Based Investing is: targeting specific securities within an asset class instead of broad index funds, while limiting costs and staying diversified. The author describes how he uses data to pick the best stocks within an asset class instead of just using popular index funds. It's like taking index funds to the next level. I like how the author compares this investment strategy to the Moneyball idea in baseball.

[Henry · Rating 5 out of 5]

Great read. Good storyline and story telling. Not your typical prescriptive fare on investing. The author shares his personal journey from wall street to main street investor interwoven while introducing unlikely mentors and new friends. He finds enlightenment and success despite personal setbacks. He also presents a convincing case for evidence-based investing, which leaves much more time for meaningful life pursuits.

[Michaela Rodriguez]

Finally!

I love the personal journey approach to this investment book. I finally made it all the way through an investment book and didn't have to add it to my half-complete pile of reads. This book is easy to read and approachable for readers of all backgrounds. Thank you for considering the industry outsiders when writing!

[giftedteacher · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is SO much more than an investing book! The entire story is interesting, and I learned a lot about the financial industry. (Previously, I'd expected that "interesting" and "financial industry" would never be found in the same book.) I highly recommend it!

I received an electronic advance review copy from the publisher via NetGalley in exchange for an honest review.

[Andrew Etzler · Rating 4 out of 5]

A story with a lesson

The author tells his story and along the way, you learn about investing. This is an excellent book for those just beginning to think about investing as well as those who are tired of the old way of investing.

[Susan · Rating 4 out of 5]

I won this book through Goodreads. I enjoyed this personal story of investing. Gave some points at least for me to start from.