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Deferring Democracy: Promoting Openness in Authoritarian Regimes
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The democratic surge in the past twenty years has led many Americans to assume that all societies are, or should be, making progress toward becoming practicing democracies. Many in the United States approach countries such as China, Iran, and Vietnam with impatience and bewilderment. These seemingly intransigent holdouts are the subject of intense policy debates, not in the least because they also play important roles in U.S. security and economic policy. This book takes a fresh look at the prospects for political change in these countries and argues that immediate opportunities exist to advance political liberalization, with the possibility that democratization will follow in the mid to long term. But to encourage these trends, the United States must de-emphasize short-term human rights and democracy strategies to focus on more subtle attitudinal and institutional changes in both state and society, and develop new policy measures to enlarge political space.
"
The democratic surge in the past twenty years has led many Americans to assume that all societies are, or should be, making progress toward becoming practicing democracies. Many in the United States approach countries such as China, Iran, and Vietnam with impatience and bewilderment. These seemingly intransigent holdouts are the subject of intense policy debates, not in the least because they also play important roles in U.S. security and economic policy. This book takes a fresh look at the prospects for political change in these countries and argues that immediate opportunities exist to advance political liberalization, with the possibility that democratization will follow in the mid to long term. But to encourage these trends, the United States must de-emphasize short-term human rights and democracy strategies to focus on more subtle attitudinal and institutional changes in both state and society, and develop new policy measures to enlarge political space.
"
149 pages, Paperback
First published November 1, 2000
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December 5, 2009
Catharin Dalpino's "Deferring Democracy" has a telling subtitle: "Promoting Openness in Authoritarian Regimes." The Foreword (by Michael Armacost) notes that (page vii) "The democratic revolution that marked the end of the cold war was an incomplete one." Later, he claims that a number of formerly hard authoritarian regimes have softened somewhat and, he goes on to say, this creates space for Dalpino's contention that such countries provide (page vii) ". . .an eye to entry points for external actors to encourage greater political openness." However, this must be done with care, insight, and sensitivity.
Elsewhere, a 2002 U.N. study reported that only 82 out of 140 countries that have had held "democratic" elections since 1980 could also claim a free press and an independent judiciary (United Nations Development Programme, 2002) (Indeed, Albert Somit and I, in our "Darwinism, Dominance, and Democracy," contend that too many analysts are way too willing to define countries as democratic when that may not actually be the case). Nor were "democratic" constitutions a reliable indicator. As the study director remarked, "We are seeing a rise of the situation where the constitution is barely respected, especially in Latin America." Further worsening the situation was the tendency for the military to intervene in civil affairs in the Far East and in sub-Sahara Africa. Endorsing the study's conclusions, Dalpino, a Brookings Institution fellow, in another publication criticized ". . .the international community [for:] forcing democracy in a hothouse atmosphere. . .[you:] can't manipulate a country into democracy. You can manipulate a country into an election."
Chapter 5 is the culmination of the short work, with a set of "lessons." The title aptly illustrates the focus: "Supporting Liberalization without Sinking It." Among specific policy suggestions: Take a disciplined approach to rhetoric; Pay attention to country specialists' expertise in policy decisions regarding specific countries; Don't personalize the process; Work through regional networks and institutions, but let regional norms take the lead. Readers may disagree with these and the other suggestions. But her points need to be addressed seriously by those with other perspectives toward change.
In this book, she provides suggestions as to how we might move formerly authoritarian countries toward greater openness and democracy. She cautions that we must be sensitive to such countries and cannot let ideological rigidity shape our policy toward them. She concludes by noting that (page 108): "The polarization of policy debate toward these countries--indeed the paralysis of policy in many cases--can be attributed to the search for automatic mechanisms, be they ideology or economics. This study argues that wishful thinking should be abandoned. . . ."
Elsewhere, a 2002 U.N. study reported that only 82 out of 140 countries that have had held "democratic" elections since 1980 could also claim a free press and an independent judiciary (United Nations Development Programme, 2002) (Indeed, Albert Somit and I, in our "Darwinism, Dominance, and Democracy," contend that too many analysts are way too willing to define countries as democratic when that may not actually be the case). Nor were "democratic" constitutions a reliable indicator. As the study director remarked, "We are seeing a rise of the situation where the constitution is barely respected, especially in Latin America." Further worsening the situation was the tendency for the military to intervene in civil affairs in the Far East and in sub-Sahara Africa. Endorsing the study's conclusions, Dalpino, a Brookings Institution fellow, in another publication criticized ". . .the international community [for:] forcing democracy in a hothouse atmosphere. . .[you:] can't manipulate a country into democracy. You can manipulate a country into an election."
Chapter 5 is the culmination of the short work, with a set of "lessons." The title aptly illustrates the focus: "Supporting Liberalization without Sinking It." Among specific policy suggestions: Take a disciplined approach to rhetoric; Pay attention to country specialists' expertise in policy decisions regarding specific countries; Don't personalize the process; Work through regional networks and institutions, but let regional norms take the lead. Readers may disagree with these and the other suggestions. But her points need to be addressed seriously by those with other perspectives toward change.
In this book, she provides suggestions as to how we might move formerly authoritarian countries toward greater openness and democracy. She cautions that we must be sensitive to such countries and cannot let ideological rigidity shape our policy toward them. She concludes by noting that (page 108): "The polarization of policy debate toward these countries--indeed the paralysis of policy in many cases--can be attributed to the search for automatic mechanisms, be they ideology or economics. This study argues that wishful thinking should be abandoned. . . ."
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