Researchers in a growing number of fields--public policy, law, business, medicine, psychology, engineering, and others--are working to understand and improve human judgment and decision making. This book, which presupposes no formal training, brings together a selection of key articles in the area, with careful organization, introduction and commentaries. Issues involving medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, labor negotiations, risk, public policy, business strategy, eyewitnesses, and jury decisions are treated in this largely expanded volume. This is a revision of Arkes and Hammond's 1986 collection on judgment and decision making. Updated and extended, the focus of this volume is interdisciplinary and applied.
This book offers a collection of classical papers on decision theory: the study (and improvement) of human decision making. All its readings are relevant to social policy research. However, if I have to recommend one it would be this:
The seminal paper "Informing the public about the risks of ionizing radiation", by Paul Slovic, Baruch Fischhoff, and Sarah Lichtenstein. It offers very good tips on how to effectively communicate statistical information; in particular, how to communicate probabilities of negative outcomes.