Risk, Surprises and Black Swans: Fundamental Ideas and Concepts in Risk Assessment and Risk Management

by Terje Aven

Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on. Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as ‘Black Swans’. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them. This book recognises the fundamental issues surrounding risk assessment and risk management to help you to understand and prepare for black swan events.

276 pages, Paperback

First published January 1, 2014

Reviews

[Peter House · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is one of better books on risk management I've read. The book is accessible in language; it neither shies away from probability nor wallows in it. The author has an epistemic bent that informs much of the exploration of risk throughout the book. The book contains practical examples ranging from simple examples such as getting robbed in a train station (which really happened to the author) on through to the Deepwater Horizon event. As the book progresses on, the examples are returned to time and time again as a way of demonstrating how a particular concept or tool would be deployed.

If you like to think about risk, about how things can go wrong, and perhaps how you might avoid consequences either in totality or partially, I would recommend this book for you.