Demand-Driven Forecasting: A Structured Approach to Forecasting

by Charles W. Chase Jr.

Praise for Demand-Driven Forecasting

A Structured Approach to Forecasting

"There are authors of advanced forecasting books who take an academic approach to explaining forecast modeling that focuses on the construction of arcane algorithms and mathematical proof that are not very useful for forecasting practitioners. Then, there are other authors who take a general approach to explaining demand planning, but gloss over technical content required of modern forecasters. Neither of these approaches is well-suited for helping business forecasters critically identify the best demand data sources, effectively apply appropriate statistical forecasting methods, and properly design efficient demand planning processes. In Demand-Driven Forecasting, Chase fills this void in the literature and provides the reader with concise explanations for advanced statistical methods and credible business advice for improving ways to predict demand for products and services. Whether you are an experienced professional forecasting manager, or a novice forecast analyst, you will find this book a valuable resource for your professional development."
—Daniel Kiely, Senior Manager, Epidemiology, Forecasting & Analytics, Celgene Corporation

"Charlie Chase has given forecasters a clear, responsible approach for ending the timeless tug of war between the need for 'forecast rigor' and the call for greater inclusion of 'client judgment.' By advancing the use of 'domain knowledge' and hypothesis testing to enrich base-case forecasts, he has empowered professional forecasters to step up and impact their companies' business results favorably and profoundly, all the while enhancing the organizational stature of forecasters broadly."
—Bob Woodard, Vice President, Global Consumer and Customer Insights, Campbell Soup Company

384 pages, Hardcover

First published July 15, 2009

Reviews

[Arthy · Rating 4 out of 5]

The book is a very good read for people who already have a tried their hands at time series forecasting. I can say that this book captures and discusses a good number of scenarios I have experienced during my tenure as a forecast analyst for a departmental store. I was able to relate to most of the real time examples and the solutions.

The chapter on regression was very well structured in terms of contents and explanation. The statistical metrics were discussed in a succinct manner. The book focuses more on the applications of time series methods to forecast demand and supply and less on the math behind the time series methods. Basic to intermediate knowledge of the math behind time series modeling is sufficient to get the most out of this book. If the reader has hands-on experience in basic forecasting techniques, irrespective of the software, is an added advantage. The section on transfer functions could benefit from better explanation.

Overall, the book served as a good refresher on time series forecasting, forecast accuracy measurements and retail domain knowledge.

[Brad Revell · Rating 4 out of 5]

Demand-Driven Forecasting is an all-round book that introduces the concept of demand forecasting including all the forecasting methods and aspects that drives demand. It is a detailed read and goes down to various algorithms that determine and shape demand; more importantly how to put in effective strategies to maximise accuracy. Charles Chase is certainly a credible author in this area with his background/experience and delves into many case studies with both feedback, advice and lessons learned. One area that was missing in my opinion is the arena of machine learning which is something the organisation I work for has invested a lot of time and money into. Given the advent of big data and cloud (including elastic) computing machine learning will play a greater role in the world of demand forecasting.

Three key takeaways from the book:
1. Demand Management is done well when it is more than just forecasting. For example, when encompassing sensing, shaping and translating a demand response into a decision-making cycle that demand driven practitioners continuously fine-tuned (i.e. Shape) based on KPIs using the combination of data, analytics, technology and or domain knowledge.
2. A lot of companies think they are shaping future demand by meeting supply constraints however they are fitting demand to supply rather than supply to demand.
3. Combining of forecasts is a good rule of thumb in two situations. 1. When you are uncertain which forecasting method is most accurate and 2. When you are uncertain about the forecasting situation.

[Charles Novak · Rating 5 out of 5]

Excellent summary.

A book to have for any practitioner and senior manager who is serious about their forecast, inventory, and customer service and company KPIs in general. Very good case studies that illustrate the topics discussed.

[Antonio · Rating 5 out of 5]

Completely new concepts about forecasting and process of planning. very concerete and practical. I think this book has come in wright moment for me - wright information in the wright time.

[Andrew Davis · Rating 3 out of 5]

A good practical overview of various forecasting methods. Doesn't go too much into details. Gives an author's comparison of the various methods and his view on accuracy and best application.