解讀市場預期

by Michael J. Mauboussin, 徐文傑

八旗文化《打破選股迷思的獲利心法》作者達摩德仁教授撰文解說《投資最重要的事》作者霍華‧馬克斯、《致富心態》作者摩根‧豪瑟一致好評成長型、價值型投資人都適用，同時掌握估值的技術與藝術本書的「預期投資法」幫你鍛鍊出馬克斯強調的「第二層思考」 看完這本書，你可以學會——評估股價中隱含的市場預期找到股價修正的原因與時機點，進而找到投資機會訂定買進、賣出或持有的決策標準 想要了解市場預期如何影響一家公司未來的表現，「股價」是最清楚、最可靠的訊號！ 我們要找的，不是便宜的股票，而是價格合理、且市場對它有期待的股票，但如何做到—— 藉由估計公司價值來評估股價的傳統方法已不再適用，本書為投資人提供一套嚴謹的投資策略與財務分析方法：「預期投資法」，重新定義並解答：「公司的未來值多少價值？」「股價」表達投資人的集體預期，掌握這些預期的變化，將決定你是否成為贏家。 大多數投資書籍都會試著藉由估計公司的價值來評估股價的吸引力，但市場的複雜度使得財報成績可能提早、也可能延後反應在股價上，為了解決這個問題，莫布新認為，與其從基本面的起點出發，不如從基本面的終點「股價」回頭審視市場，解讀市場預期。 「預期投資法」是一套選股流程，它使用市場自己的訂價機制，解讀隱含在公司股價中的預期。更顯示出預期的修正如何影響股價。簡單來說，預期投資法使用正確的工具來評估正確的預期，做出正確的投資選擇。適用不同產業（實體產品事業、服務型事業，與知識型產品事業），也適用不同投資風格（成長型與價值型）。 本書結構——幫你選股、交易、判斷消息 【PART1】介紹預期投資法使用的工具。解釋為什麼傳統分析側重短期效益與本益比，導致錯誤預期。並提醒投資人跟著現金走，忘掉盈餘和本益比，避免以為預測能讓自己成為大預言家，猜不到才是市場常態。 【PART2】使用預期投資法的3個步驟。尋找市場預期出現修正的潛在原因，並專注分析對股價有最大影響的價值觸發因素（銷量、成本或投資），最後使用競爭策略分析，有助於預測到預期的修正，找出被低估的股票。 【PART3】哪些消息會影響你的決策。關注公司併購、發行股票或買進庫藏時所發出的訊號。這些消息會釋放出修正公司前景預期的訊號，幫助你找到投資機會。

336 pages, Paperback

Published March 1, 2022

About the author

Michael J. Mauboussin is Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management. Prior to joining LMCM in 2004, Michael was a Managing Director and Chief U.S. Investment Strategist at Credit Suisse. Michael joined CS in 1992 as a packaged food industry analyst. He is a former president of the Consumer Analyst Group of New York and was repeatedly named to Institutional Investors All-America Research Team and The Wall Street Journal All-Star survey in the food industry group.

Michael is the author of Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (Harvard Business Press, 2009) and More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional PlacesUpdated and Expanded (New York: Columbia Business School Publishing, 2008). More Than You Know was named one of The 100 Best Business Books of All Time by 800-CEO-READ, one of the best business books by BusinessWeek (2006) and best economics book by Strategy+Business (2006). He is also co-author, with Alfred Rappaport, of Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns (Harvard Business School Press, 2001).

Michael has been an adjunct professor of finance at Columbia Business School since 1993 and is on the faculty of the Heilbrunn Center for Graham and Dodd Investing. In 2009, Michael received the Deans Award for Teaching Excellence. BusinessWeeks Guide to the Best Business Schools (2001) highlighted Michael as one of the schools Outstanding Faculty, a distinction received by only seven professors.

Michael earned an A.B. from Georgetown University. He is also affiliated with the Santa Fe Institute, a leading center for multi-disciplinary research in complex systems theory, and is on the board of directors of Sermo, an online community for physicians."