Chance Rules: An Informal Guide to Probability, Risk and Statistics

by Brian S. Everitt

Chance continues to govern our lives in the 21st Century. From the genes we inherit and the environment into which we are born, to the lottery ticket we buy at the local store, much of life is a gamble. In business, education, travel, health, and marriage, we take chances in the hope of obtaining something better. Chance colors our lives with uncertainty, and so it is important to examine it and try to understand about how it operates in a number of different circumstances. Such understanding becomes simpler if we take some time to learn a little about probability, since probability is the natural language of uncertainty.This second edition of Chance Rules again recounts the story of chance through history and the various ways it impacts on our lives. Here you can read about the earliest gamblers who thought that the fall of the dice was controlled by the gods, as well as the modern geneticist and quantum theory researcher trying to integrate aspects of probability into their chosen speciality. Example included in the first addition such as the infamous Monty Hall problem, tossing coins, coincidences, horse racing, birthdays and babies remain, often with an expanded discussion, in this edition. Additional material in the second edition includes, a probabilistic explanation of why things were better when you were younger, consideration of whether you can use probability to prove the existence of God, how long you may have to wait to win the lottery, some court room dramas, predicting the future, and how evolution scores over creationism. Chance Rules lets you learn about probability without complex mathematics.

225 pages, Paperback

First published August 1, 1999

Reviews

[Manikya Ramesh · Rating 5 out of 5]

I really liked Mr Everitt's way of writing. He is a professional statistician.
Chance devices like dice/ lots were used in ancient times in administration of justice, division of property and to communicate with God and to know his wish.
The concept of Probability actually took birth in gambling houses by inveterate gamblers thinking of odds during 17th century . Gradually mathematicians developed interest in this subject.
One can learn fun facts about tossing coin, rolling dice, playing card games, roulette and also puzzling probability problems.
Bayes theorem and it's application to interpretation of screening tests, role of statistics in medicine to establish evidence, concept of statistical model are explained clearly.
Alterative medicine thrives on anecdotes and testimonials rather than its efficacy. anecdotes/ testimonials cannot become evidence. Only Randomised controlled trials can establish evidence.
Author states due to random variation, certainty is impossible in medicine. statistics , however, helps to quantify uncertainty and identify good bets. decisions are made based on probability.
The author could convince me that chance has a role in everything. quantum physics accepts randomness at sub atomic particle level.Evolution and mutations happen because of chance. So chance rules!!! Absolutely