The Reality of our Global Future: How five unstoppable High-Tech trends will dominate our lives and transform our world

by Peter B. Scott-Morgan

Where are we heading? Stripped of all the hype and fantasy – where really is the world economy set to take us by 2040? Those of us alive today are on an extraordinary For several decades our future has largely been determined by a handful of relatively-obscure trends that together generate the awesome propulsion of a High-Tech engine that is launching the international community on a voyage into completely unfamiliar territory. But where will we all end up?   Based on unparalleled insights into what organizations across the globe are actually doing, for the first time the world’s foremost expert on the hidden inner-workings of society explains in simple and accessible language exactly where the most deeply-established trends are taking us. How, despite claims that its accelerating progress is not sustainable for much longer, Digitization is on an inexorable course to a mind-blowing society of virtual-assistants, robot cars, cyborgs and everything on-the-record. And how Networking will combine with Digitization to lead by 2040 to computers capable of human-like interaction and an internet a billion times more powerful than today’s.   Dr. Scott-Morgan reveals how the Miniaturization trend offers nanotech breakthroughs ranging from cancer treatments to quantum computing – but not, as has often been claimed, Star-Trek Replicators or the threat of ‘grey goo’. And he shows how exponential Simulation will support fundamental and sweeping advances that lead to almost limitless electricity and maybe almost limitless life-extension. Our world is set for a Global Renaissance.   However, the backdraft of the High-Tech launch engine is also stirring up a turbulence of unintended consequences that threaten to disrupt our trajectory. Rather than Global Renaissance, we would then enter Global Chaos. Yet these are not ordinary times. In the startling conclusion to his book, Dr. Scott-Morgan reveals how in only the last couple of years a brand new exponential trend has begun to emerge out of the turbulence. In terms of influencing our destination – whether we end up in a Global Renaissance or in Global Chaos – it is that trend that will be the most important one of all. This is the companion volume to 'The Reality of Global Crises' by the same author.

216 pages, Paperback

First published March 27, 2012

Reviews

[Pete · Rating 2 out of 5]

The book is mostly about exponential technology growth and its implications.

I agree with the author's premise, that people don't easily grok exponential change, and that tech change is likely to continue to be on an exponential curve.

I could quibble about the areas where my professional experience says he didn't do enough research and got a few things provably wrong.

My biggest reactions:
* I think he largely "gets" many default long-term implications of high tech change
* I think he is overoptimistic about the pace and quality of such change. He never even touches on the huge and growing challenge of buggy, fragile technology.
* I think he completely misses the fact that reality, and in particular human reality, is far more than about "intelligence". (Ie just because computers are faster doesn't make them truly better than human in any comprehensive sense.

And ultimately, I am very sobered by his example of being a guy who unabashedly embraces unreal computer relationships as being preferable to the real world. If this is what the world is heading towards, I hope mature people can redirect the missile.

In THAT sense, I recommend the book: it provides articulate insight into many aspects of how and why people are embracing tech as a replacement for frail humanity.