Afghanistan and Regional Geopolitical Dynamics After 11 September

by National Intelligence Council

In April 2002, the National Intelligence Council sponsored a conference that examined the impact of events in Afghanistan since 11 September on a variety of regional actors, including Russia, Iran, Turkey, India, Europe, Pakistan, and the Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The conference brought together government and outside experts and consisted of four workshops with presentations from ten academic and regional experts, followed by lengthy discussion sessions. The purpose of the conference was not to arrive at a consensus but to deepen understanding of the complex geopolitical dynamics at work in the region. This conference report is intended to capture the salient points and original arguments of the proceedings. It consists of the précis of each speaker's on-the-record presentation and a summary of the ensuing not-for-attribution discussions. Although the loya jirga has been convened since this conference was held, references to it in the presentations and discussions have been retained because the implications of the judgments remain generally pertinent. During the panel discussions no attempt was made to ascertain the general view of the panel or audience. Many of the points highlighted in these summaries of the panel discussions were noted because they were thought-provoking or outside conventional wisdom. They illustrate the richness of the discussion, but they do not necessarily reflect accepted or prevailing views at the conference.

64 pages, Paperback

First published November 30, 2004