Hot Hand: The Statistics Behind Sports' Greatest Streaks

by Alan Reifman

Upon witnessing a series of outstanding (or awful) performances, a sports fan or announcer may wonder, What are the odds of that happening? In fact, statisticians have shown that, for the most part, athletic streaks occur about as often as would be expected by random chance. If one flips a coin a thousand times, many “streaks” of consecutive heads (or tails) will occur along the way. This counterintuitive finding implies that the notion of momentum in sports is greatly overstated.After a brief initial foundation on the study of streaks and relevant methods of statistical analysis, Alan Reifman focuses on actual sports streaks, from the famous―Joe DiMaggio getting at least one hit in fifty-six consecutive games in 1941 and the Los Angeles Lakers winning thirty-three straight games in the 1971–72 season―to the less well-known, such as the University of Dayton men’s basketball team going 0-for-24 on three-point shot attempts in a 2008 game. Reifman also examines psychological and physiological mechanisms in sports performance, as well as the implications of those mechanisms for coaching and sport psychology practice. Thought-provoking for stats freaks and regular fans alike, Hot Hand illuminates one of the most fascinating and little-understood phenomena in sports.

192 pages, Hardcover

First published August 31, 2011

About the author

Alan Reifman is a professor of human development and family sciences at Texas Tech University, where he has taught since 1997. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Michigan.

Reviews

[Tom · Rating 2 out of 5]

I don't know who this book's audience is. The math was too simplistic to really be valuable to academics and there were no true stories being told. The author did some monte carlo simulations, but sometimes only a few as 8 simulations which are not of significance.

There were also parts of the book that were very disjointed. There were no transitions between some streaks and didn't feel like they belonged in the same chapter.

The author obviously has a passion for the subject, but ultimately there was not any new insight gained. You can summarize the book as, "streaks are generally within the realm of reasonable statistical probability and don't feel the need to give the ball to the 'hot hand'."