In this brilliant book, Simon Pearson plots our future; one full of uncomfortable possibilities governments fear to face. He takes us from today's world where cruise missile diplomacy underlines the dominance of the West to 2006 when an Islamic Alliance dares to challenge it. Russia experiences a second revolution, across Europe the hope of the new millennium is lost in economic and policy failures, the USA leads a purposeful NATO as the de facto world policeman and a single figure emerges to unite Islam. The world staggers towards inevitable war...
Simon Pearson has worked on The Times since 1986. His interest in military history was stimulated by his father who served with the RAF in World War Two. He is the author of the bestselling The Great Escaper, published in 2013 and described by the Sunday Times as ‘enthralling, an astounding story of honour and resilience’.
O picked this book up, thinking it was sci fi. In fact, it's written by a former RAF officer in 1999 attempting to forecast the first decade of the 21st century and boy, said he get it wrong. One can forgive him for not seeing the events of 9/11, but he should have known about al Qaeda. They have not been mentioned so far. However, by 2004, which is as far as I have got, he has had the USA in a war with North Korea which the USA wins with a reunification of the two Koreas, a major revolution in Saudi Arabia, the Russians having a second revolution backed by the army, Morocco becoming an Islamic theocracy albeit with the King remaining and an army led revolution in China due to chaos caused by a breakdown in the economy. I thought I would give the book a go, but it's really not worth the time as he has got everything so wrong. It's perhaps unfair to give the book only 1*, but the writer really doesn't show any idea of geo political realities and I'm not sure he should have even thought of writing the book.
Dreadful, honestly -1 out of 5 for much of any accuracy. No idea why this was ever awarded the Clausewitz Medal of Honour (for military writing), unless the judges of the Führungsakademie were having a very off day, as this more closely resembles some teen's geopolitical fan-fiction musings, not far off a Youtube video for erudite insight, than it could be said to be a cogent exposition extrapolating future events, as theorised from contemporary events.
Still, that being said, if familiar with current geopolitics 'tis worth a read, for a laugh, as you can play 'Spot the erroneous presumptions' whilst reading it -3.75 from 5 for comedy value.
This book was gifted to me in 1999 and which I left sitting on my bookshelf for some years. One day, a few weeks ago, I saw the book and thought maybe I should have a peak and see what awaits me within its pages. Quite honestly, once I started to read it, I was hooked. Now I regret leaving this fascinating and remarkable piece of work, from which nightmares are made.
Whilst Simon Pearson’s book sat on my shelf, I began to read some thrilling as they were also horrifying events taking place around the world. When this book was first published, the Twin Towers hadn’t yet been blown up by a group of partisan fighters in response to Western aggression in the Middle East, the battle-hardened Taliban were still moping around feeling somewhat dejected and apathetic whilst trying to look relevant. They had just formed a hostile government in Afghanistan, where they had kicked out the Soviets after a long and painful battle. The Islamic State hadn’t yet formed themselves into a credible fighting force although, their influence was slowing creeping upwards throughout the much of the Middle East. The Russians and the Muslims hadn’t yet become friends where later they would be aligning themselves against American interests in Iran and Syria. The Israelis were sneeringly more aggressive in the Palestinian territories, Bosnia and the Rwandan genocides had happened a few years earlier and North Korea had closed all communication with the outside world. These events shaped some of the thinking that Pearson then used to create this piece of work.
The book was published in 1999 and sets its predicted future conflicts across the continents of the world. The primary focus in the book is the build-up of Russian power and influence, challenging western interests and Israeli interventions across the wider Middle Eastern regions whilst the USA continues its isolationist strategy. Although the book is a fictional account, one can be forgiven for not guessing this, when you have the benefit of hindsight in front of you. The only aspect of this carefully scripted book is the point where I had to keep reminding myself that 9/11 had not yet happened when this book was written and for this reason, one has to compensate for this lack of reference to this event in the storyline. The author sets out a thought-provoking war games stimulation written post Iraq conflict.
Early in the book Pearson expands on the military might of the various actors in the pending global all-out war where North Korea is denuded of its defence capability, Germany was being drawn into a global conflict through interethnic conflicts whilst NATO looked upon Germany with suspicion and loathing.
The book covers some wider interest such as competing for the natural resources, water being one such resource. This is where Pearson quotes the UN General Secretary Boutros Boutros Ghali from 1991 when he said, “the next war in the Middle East will be over water not politics”. This view was also beginning to concern Israeli politics at the time when Shimon Peres encapsulated the view that the Arabs approach towards Israel was not merely about pursuing its land but to control its water and oil wells.
The Russian Federation was becoming larger and more menacing whilst it built links with a global Islamic Alliance who were regularly consulting with the Russians in area of mutual military and geopolitical interests. An agreement was reached where the Russians would gain over $200 billion in return for them to pin down NATO’s military might in the Baltics.
In the meantime, the Israeli military were in conflict with the leader of the Islamic Alliance leader Saladin and began to fire their Scud missiles at Marseilles, a port city in southern France who were considered as allies to Saladin.
On the Information revolution front, another war was raging almost out of control were military commanders had become ‘information control freaks’ as the world was entering a Third (technological) World War. The USA was starting to join the fray whilst continually supporting its old ally, Israel.
The book seizes the imagination and plays on the world stage by using global news to influencing the balance of political and economic power. It uses this information to slowly predict a likely scenario of different relationships developing, based on changing circumstances. Almost suggesting, what if this happen, what would be a possible outcome? What would be the consequences whilst looking at the progressive development of different allies and relations based upon natural resources and economic power?
It is certainly a good book to read but one must keep in mind that it is now a dated book but the situation described within it is still relevant within the political power relations of today. With this in mind, the last chapter offers a well-informed political insight towards peace and this has to be something that global powers may need to consider if Pearson’s predictions become real.
I have to say, i dont agree with many of the reviews of this book. It is bloody brilliant, and equally scary! It is not written by a time traveller, so therefore cannot give an exact account of the future! What it does is show some of the paths the world could have taken. I have recommended this book to many people, all who agree that it is a brilliant and scary book.
A stimulating exercise in trying to predict where existing trends in men and technology could take us, with special reference to the Middle East. A sort of war-game novel written after Iraq '91, it carries us though rising Islamic militancy and expertise, Western complacency and Russian re-grouping. The title reveals the penultimate outcome.
Tom Clancy is a better story-teller, but this has its own purpose and I think achieves it well. A bit contrived in places, but considering it was published before 11 September 2001, it is an impressive piece of speculation.
A nice addition to any ones alternative history collection. Written as a near future prediction of modern warfare it now stands as an interesting and fun exercise for one to indulge in.
Not the best book in this sort of 'Third World War' inspired field, it is however in my opinion a very good read.
I enjoy hypothetical situations in literature, and this did that very well. If there's a series built around the idea, I'd give it a read for sure. The title gives away the point of the book, not recommended for the militarily adverse.