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256 pages, Hardcover
First published July 21, 2011
Michael J. Mauboussin is Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management. Prior to joining LMCM in 2004, Michael was a Managing Director and Chief U.S. Investment Strategist at Credit Suisse. Michael joined CS in 1992 as a packaged food industry analyst. He is a former president of the Consumer Analyst Group of New York and was repeatedly named to Institutional Investors All-America Research Team and The Wall Street Journal All-Star survey in the food industry group.
Michael is the author of Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (Harvard Business Press, 2009) and More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional PlacesUpdated and Expanded (New York: Columbia Business School Publishing, 2008). More Than You Know was named one of The 100 Best Business Books of All Time by 800-CEO-READ, one of the best business books by BusinessWeek (2006) and best economics book by Strategy+Business (2006). He is also co-author, with Alfred Rappaport, of Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns (Harvard Business School Press, 2001).
Michael has been an adjunct professor of finance at Columbia Business School since 1993 and is on the faculty of the Heilbrunn Center for Graham and Dodd Investing. In 2009, Michael received the Deans Award for Teaching Excellence. BusinessWeeks Guide to the Best Business Schools (2001) highlighted Michael as one of the schools Outstanding Faculty, a distinction received by only seven professors.
Michael earned an A.B. from Georgetown University. He is also affiliated with the Santa Fe Institute, a leading center for multi-disciplinary research in complex systems theory, and is on the board of directors of Sermo, an online community for physicians."
Where was the Fed when the signs of a looming economic disaster were flashing across the radar screen? Alan Greenspan, the Fed chairman, insisted that central bankers could not distinguish between an asset bubble and a tolerable price expansion. He therefore rejected the suggestion that the Fed fight the housing bubble. Ben Bernake, who succeeded Greenspan as chairman in 2006, shared this mindset.
Only after the bubble burst did Greenspan recognize the error of his ways. On October 23, 2008, he testified before Congress. Evoking a line from the classic film Casablanca, he conceded that he was "in a state of shocked disbelief" at the unanticipated meltdown of markets. "I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interest of organizations, specifically banks and others, were such as that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and their equity in the firms." Regrettably, the interests of managers and shareholders often clash, and corporate governance systems do a poor job of handling the conflicts.
The Fed's models failed to account for how these conflicts affect both individual organizations and the global economy. As a consequence, the Federal Reserve relied on financial markets to self-correct, which allowed the housing market to spin out of control. Some commentators contend that a blind faith in free-market ideology trumped the obvious warning signs of an impending storm. Or perhaps Greenspan just neglected the advice of William McChesney Martin, Jr., chairman of the Fed from 1951 to 1970, who stressed that the Federal Reserve's job is "to take away the punch bowl just when the party gets going."