Numbers from Nowhere: The American Indian Contact Population Debate

by David P. Henige

In the past forty years an entirely new paradigm has developed regarding the contact population of the New World. Proponents of this new theory argue that the American Indian population in 1492 was ten, even twenty, times greater than previous estimates. In Numbers From Nowhere David Henige argues that the data on which these high counts are based are meager and often demonstrably wrong. Drawing on a wide variety of primary and secondary sources, Henige illustrates the use and abuse of numerical data throughout history. He shows that extrapolation of numbers is entirely subjective, however masked it may be by arithmetic, and he questions what constitutes valid evidence in historical and scientific scholarship.

Genres: Native American

548 pages, Hardcover

First published May 1, 1998

Reviews

[Bill Leach · Rating 3 out of 5]

Henige takes issue with many of the current estimates of the population of American Indians at the time of contact with the Europeans. Feeling that many of the estimates to be too high, he terms the authors "High Counters".

The book analyzes these estimates in great detail, showing that their basis is very shaky. Comments on facts from historical figures are particularly interesting.

The estimates are largely obtained through backward projections where factors are allowed for depopulation due to disease. High Counters tend to use generous compounding factors.

The author states that to properly handle these uncertain factors, error bands should be used. As an example, he quotes Linda Newson (pg 6) "There is still considerable controversy over the size of the population of Latin America and the Caribbean on the eve of the Spanish conquest. Estimates vary from 7.5 million to between 80 and 100 million ...". Such wide ranges do not give one a good feel for the population densities, but do give a better idea of the current uncertainty.

At the start of each chapter is a pair of quotations from various authors that are both entertaining and though provoking. From Charles Darwin:"I had, also, during many years, followed a golden rule, namely, that whenever a published fact, a new observation or thought came across me, which was opposed to my general results, to make a memorandum of it without fail and at once; for I had found by experience that such facts and thoughts were far more apt to escape from memory than favorable ones. Owing to this habit, very few objections were raised against my views which I had not at least noticed and attempted to answer.".

Beyond the population debate, the book provides an interesting perspective on history and it's analysis.

[Anson Cassel Mills · Rating 4 out of 5]

Although David Henige (b. 1938) writes cleverly, probably few laymen will choose this book as leisure reading. Likewise, few scholars (except perhaps for Henige’s professional enemies and a few unfortunate graduate students) will read it all the way through without skipping pages and even whole chapters.

Henige shouldn't worry. This book needed to be written, and its thesis is sound. “High Counters” have indeed grossly exaggerated the pre-contact population of American Indians on the basis of virtually nothing but the desire to take a currently fashionable position. Wisely, Henige reminds his readers that there are places historians cannot go because no evidence remains and that this lack of evidence can become an opportunity for wild conjecture on the part of those who have ideological axes to grind.

Of necessity whoever took on the “High Counters” had to drudge through the facts and figures to prove them misguided, and the drudging doesn’t always make for engaging reading. Nevertheless, Henige ranges widely and engagingly in his series of essays, treating such profitable topics as numerical exaggerations in classical texts and even in works of imagination. Some passages are laugh-out-loud witty

[William · Rating 1 out of 5]

The author's thesis is that High Counters overestimate the contact population and the effects of disease introduced by Europeans.

One might be tempted to ascribe motives to the author, just as the author ascribes motives to High Counters throughout the book.

The book contains a lot of detours to peripheral topics such as Julius Caesar, Alex Haley, fans of Tolkien, etc.

The author fails to address archaeological data in any meaningful way.