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Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
by
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call real
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Hardcover, 288 pages
Published
February 6th 2018
by Portfolio Penguin
(first published 2018)
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Start your review of Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
【高手的心法】
直接扑克高手的科学决策。
直接扑克高手的科学决策。
不要陷入「結果論」或「後見之明偏誤」而去質疑本身做的決策。決策的好壞在於你對事實了解有多少，而不是結果的好壞。沒有一件事是百分之百不會發生，但長期的高品質決策會導向高品質的人生。為了讓自己不會因為盲點而有「動機性推理」的行為，應該以「可能」的字眼代替「絕對」，開放不同的意見，了解真實的樣貌，進而提高自己做決策的準度，並以未來的正面或負面的自己，去思考現在做什麼是最有利的決策，讓自己往自己想去的目標。
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Annie Duke (born Anne LaBarr Lederer) is a professional poker player and author who won a bracelet in the 2004 World Series of Poker $2,000 Omaha Hi-Low Split-8 or Better Event and was the winner of the 2004 World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions, where she earned the Winner-Take-All prize of $2,000,000.
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“What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge. That state of knowledge, in turn, is some variation of “I’m not sure.”
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“In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather, we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing.”
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