Michael Chenchard > Recent Status Updates

During all of this insanity, we’d have extremely
scarce time to make the right decisions. The challenges will be
immense. It will take everything we’ve got to make it through
in one piece.

More generally, everything will just start happening incredibly
fast. And the world will start going insane. Suppose we had
gone through the geopolitical fever-pitches and man-made
perils of the 20th century in mere years; that is the sort of situation we should expect post-superintelligence. By the end
of it, superintelligent AI systems will be running our military
and economy.

There is a real possibility that we will lose control, as
we are forced to hand off trust to AI systems during this rapid
transition

We would have
gone from flying being thought a mirage, to airplanes, to a
man on the moon and ICBMs in a matter of years. This is
what I expect the 2030s to look like across science and technology.

As an example of how wild this could be, look at some Youtube
videos of video game speedruns, such as this one of beating
Minecraft in 20 seconds.

shoutout minecraft

This quickly does the remaining necessary “unhobbling” takes us the remainder of the way to
100% automation

grammar mistake

are yolo runs in training models a risk to humanity?

Real automated AI researchers be very smart—and in addition
to their raw quantitative advantage, automated AI researchers
will have other enormous advantages over human researchers:

typo

certainly your modal AGI year should sometime later this
decade or so.

typo

It seems like many are in the game of downward-defining AGI
these days, as just as really good chatbot or whatever.

as twice

We are on course for AGI by 2027. These AI systems will basically be able to automate basically all cognitive jobs (think: all
jobs that could be done remotely).

basically twice in same sentence

(One neat way to think about this is that the current trend of AI
progress is proceeding at roughly 3x the pace of child development. Your 3x-speed-child just graduated high school; it’ll be
taking your job before you know it!)

My thoughts are not thoughts—they are dreams.

“What would color be like? He’d put a rosy bulb in the porch light.”

Excerpt From
In the Heart of the Heart of the Country
William H. Gass
This material may be protected by copyright.

“Fender remembered the census had missed him. He’d had to call attention to himself. How bitter he’d been about that.” XD

“Guess, how many peas? I’m not green like you, Glick, not countably discrete, not caught between tines, not raised, not even bitten through or mashed against the teeth.”

Excerpt From
In the Heart of the Heart of the Country
William H. Gass
This material may be protected by copyright.

great portrayal of the real estate occupation

“Recently, while I’ve been loitering at the end of the alley, taking my last look around, I’ve felt I’ve mixed up all my starts and endings, that the future is over and the past has just begun.”

Excerpt From
In the Heart of the Heart of the Country
William H. Gass
This material may be protected by copyright.

“There is no pleasure. There is only the biological propriety of the penis.”

Excerpt From
In the Heart of the Heart of the Country
William H. Gass
This material may be protected by copyright.