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Machine Learning
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Book cover for Inadequate Equilibria: Where and How Civilizations Get Stuck
If the poll moved prices, then the poll was new information that the market thought was important, and the market updated its belief, and this is just the way things should be.
There's a fine line between deductive and plausible reasoning. You better have a systematic way of dealing with it.

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Jake liked a quote
Hamlet by William Shakespeare
“There are more things in Heaven and Earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.”
William Shakespeare
Jake liked a quote
Richard II by William Shakespeare
“For God's sake, let us sit upon the ground
And tell sad stories of the death of kings;
How some have been deposed; some slain in war,
Some haunted by the ghosts they have deposed;
Some poison'd by their wives: some sleeping kill'd;
All murder'd: for within the hollow crown
That rounds the mortal temples of a king
Keeps Death his court and there the antic sits,
Scoffing his state and grinning at his pomp,
Allowing him a breath, a little scene,
To monarchize, be fear'd and kill with looks,
Infusing him with self and vain conceit,
As if this flesh which walls about our life,
Were brass impregnable, and humour'd thus
Comes at the last and with a little pin
Bores through his castle wall, and farewell king!

Act 3, Scene 2”
William Shakespeare
Jake liked a quote
“There are more ideas on earth than intellectuals imagine. And these ideas are more active, stronger, more resistant, more passionate than "politicians" think. We have to be there at the birth of ideas, the bursting outward of their force: not in books expressing them, but in events manifesting this force, in struggles carried on around ideas, for or against them. Ideas do not rule the world. But it is because the world has ideas (and because it constantly produces them) that it is not passively ruled by those who are its leaders or those who would like to teach it, once and for all, what it must think.”
Michel Foucault
Jared Davis Jared Davis started reading The Factory
Jake rated a book liked it
Phaedo by Plato
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Where was I before I was born?
Jake and 82 other people liked Manny's review of Phaedo:
Phaedo by Plato
"Celebrity Death Match Special: Plato's Phaedo versus Philip José Farmer's To Your Scattered Bodies Go

[Riverworld. Night. Numerous people are gathered around a campfire, including RICHARD BURTON, ALICE PLEASANCE LIDDELL, PLATO, BENJAMIN JOWETT, DAN..." Read more of this review »
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The Art and Science of Low Carbohydrate Living by Jeff S. Volek
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This book is a starting point for most people, but I found some of what Volek focused on to be a bit out of line with some of the academic literature I read concurrently. Take, for instance, these two studies in Nature.

The first says the
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The Keto Instant Pot Cookbook by Urvashi Pitre
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A Memory Called Empire by Arkady Martine
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More of Jake's books…
Albert Einstein
“Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.”
Albert Einstein

Charles Bukowski
“All of which is to say, I didn’t pay a hell of a lot of attention to grammar, and when I write it is for the love of the word, the color, like tossing paint on a canvas, and using a lot of ear and having read a bit here and there, I generally come out ok, but technically I don’t know what’s happening, nor do I care.”
Charles Bukowski, On Writing

Dmitri Shostakovich
“It makes you think the best way to hold on to something is to pay no attention to it. The things you love too much must perish. You have to treat everything with irony, especially the things you hold dear. There's more of a chance then that they'll survive.”
Dmitri Shostakovich, Testimony: The Memoirs

Ludwig Wittgenstein
“Man has to awaken to wonder - and so perhaps do peoples. Science is a way of sending him to sleep again.”
Ludwig Wittgenstein, Culture and Value

“One day during the siege, Grant was observed walking the outer line when he encountered a mule-team driver beating and cursing one of the mules. He ordered the man to stop. The animal’s abuser, seeing a man with a blouse and no sign of rank, turned and began to swear at him. Grant had the man arrested and brought to his headquarters. Only then did the mule driver realize whom he had insulted. The man was ordered to be tied up by his thumbs. When released, the contrite soldier apologized for his language, telling Grant he did not know to whom he was speaking. Grant explained that he had punished the soldier not because of what he’d said to his commanding general: “I could defend myself, but the mule could not.”
Ronald C. White Jr., American Ulysses: A Life of Ulysses S. Grant

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