2025 Booker Prize speculation

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Love that list - I have read 10 of them. Some great calls here.

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Love that list - I have read 10 of them. Some great calls here.

[Sam]

Absence was just released in U.S. today and I was smiling at the quote about it blurbed on Lithub.

“Through its archive of narratives nestled within narratives, this exquisite novel creates a beguiling soundscape of echoes and murmurs that reverberates in the mind long after the reading. In lucid, captivating prose, Issa Quincy constructs a palimpsest composed of the fractals and losses that define the numberless strata of the past. Recalling the novels of W. G. Sebald and the films of Chris Marker, Absence is a mournful and luminous meditation on the work of remembering.”
–Christine Lai

I'll leave everyone to their own thoughts about the blurb. I am looking forward to the novel.

I am also happy to see Holloway, Williams and Lockwood. I dread Call Me Ismaelle.

[Ben]

I enjoyed Absence - Quincy can certainly write a great sentence. After the first couple of chapters I thought it was going to be a five star read for me, but it lost a little of its lustre towards the end. It ended up just feeling a little repetitive and meandering.

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

I have high hopes for Call me Ishmaelle taking the prize.

After recent winners from England (Samantha Harvey), Scotland (Shuggie Bain), Northern Ireland (Anna Burns) and Ireland (Paul Lynch) surely it’s time for Wales to win.

[ANC]

Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer wrote: "I have high hopes for Call me Ishmaelle taking the prize.

After recent winners from England (Samantha Harvey), Scotland (Shuggie Bain), Northern Ireland (Anna Burns) and Ireland (Paul Lynch) sure..."

If you want Welsh representation, Bitter Honey by Caryl Lewis would be a good one.

[Nicole D.]

I don't expect accuracy - here are my predictions

Dream Hotel by Laila Lalami*

Nesting by Roisin O'Donnell*

Let Me Go Mad in My Own Way by Elaine Feeney *

Helm by Sarah Hall

Our Evenings by Alan Hollinghurst

Endling by Maria Riva

We Pretty Pieces of Flesh by Colwell Brown

Edenglassie by Melissa Lucashenko

Ghost Wedding by David Park

The Tiny Things are Heavier by Esther Ifesinachi Okonkwo

Life Cycle of a Moth by Rowe Irvin

Will There Ever Be Another You by Patricia Lockwood

Spent by Alison Bechdel

Only read the 3 with an *

[Joe]

Most of the prediction lists I've seen have had mostly women authors with a wide variety of books predicted. Any male authors on the lists have been the same handful of Tash Aw, Alan Hollinghurst, Abdulrazak Gurnah, Ocean Vuong.
Are we likely to see a reversal of Booker 1991 with a 2025 list packed with interesting female (or trans or non-binary) authors?
Just an observation, but my prediction list would also be packed with female authors this year.

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Increasingly I think literary prize lists are dominated by female authors.

I would add David Szalay to your list though.

[Emmeline]

My only prediction is that We Pretty Pieces of Flesh won't be on the list because

a) everyone predicts it/wants it
b) there's always a big upset about one book and
c) I want to read it

[Nicole D.]

Emmeline wrote: "My only prediction is that We Pretty Pieces of Flesh won't be on the list because

a) everyone predicts it/wants it
b) there's always a big upset about one book and
c) I want to read it"

You're totally right! And a bunch of people predicting it as the winner already

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Of the 30 most predicted books from 52 predictions - 11 are by men, 19 by women
The Listopia is 13 M/ 17 W I think

[Alwynne]

Emmeline wrote: "My only prediction is that We Pretty Pieces of Flesh won't be on the list because

a) everyone predicts it/wants it
b) there's always a big upset about one book and
c) I want to read it"

I have similar reactions but coming at things from a different angle. I don't fancy the Colwill Brown, after Burntcoat I'm not likely to try another Sarah Hall novel and I've only really rated Sarah Moss's non-fiction. The Booker lists hardly ever reflect my personal taste in fiction, so I'm assuming that makes all three sure things.

Same goes for Hollinghurst - like the idea of his work far more than the reality - as well as Nicola Barker whose writing irritates me, and Xiaolu Guo - haven't particularly enjoyed anything of hers since 20 Fragments of a Ravenous Youth.

[Emmeline]

I'm looking forward to the Hall, though it's true I've only read Mrs Fox before by the author that was a (startlingly direct) rewrite. I have also failed to get on with Sarah Moss in the past, and also dubious about Xiaolu Guo... particularly this book which seems to leave out all the best bits of its source material. I would like to see Wendy Erskine.

[Cindy]

Nicole D. wrote: "I don't expect accuracy - here are my predictions

Dream Hotel by Laila Lalami*

Nesting by Roisin O'Donnell*

Let Me Go Mad in My Own Way by Elaine Feeney *

Helm by Sarah Hall

Our Evenings by Al..."

I love this list Robert (even if I did not love all of the books on it that I have read). Really thoughtful.

[Alwynne]

Emmeline wrote: "I'm looking forward to the Hall, though it's true I've only read Mrs Fox before by the author that was a (startlingly direct) rewrite. I have also failed to get on with Sarah Moss i..."

I enjoyed The Carhullan Army aka Daughters of the North but that might have been because Hall's blend of literary and dystopian science fiction felt quite fresh at the time. And I liked Sarah Moss's debut novel Cold Earth but that was tilted towards horror and I loved all the archaeological details. Since then her style, as far as fiction goes, just falls a bit flat for me. I haven't read the Erskine but I've been impressed by some of her short stories - irreverent, a little bit subversive and great sense of place.

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

FWIW I liked Helm a lot more than Burntcoat and it feels a veg different novel - more like Cuddy than anything else I can think of and with a quirky wind as a main character together with a Iron Age seer and a warrior priest

I have never quite hit it off with the other Sarah - Moss - but Ripeness appropriately seems her most mature novel (still not a big favourite with me)

I love Wendy E’s short stories for afar you say but also their deep empathy. She has fine for something very different here to just a long short story (which is I would say what Saba Sam’s did with her debut novel). It’s a multi character story with lots of effectively flash fiction interleaved in it to give a polyphonic flavour. I really liked it. I just saw an interview with Roddy Doyle on a you tube channel from June where he comments briefly about the themes he is seeing in books (and which he implies he does not like). His most serious comment is that the submissions still seem very middle class dominated - my immediate thought is he might find the class themes in Benefactors interesting.

[Alwynne]

Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer wrote: "FWIW I liked Helm a lot more than Burntcoat and it feels a veg different novel - more like Cuddy than anything else I can think of and with a quirky wind as a main character together with a Iron Ag..."

Thanks GY all great info. There are a few working-class writers who write about working-class themes/characters - although it's a difficult term to broadly define and not always that useful/meaningful a category - Eliza Clark, Saba Sams, Rachel Dawson, Emma Jane Unsworth for example. But they're not always prolific authors. Also I think, possibly unfairly, there can be a tendency for Booker panels - certainly in the past - to select what they consider 'working-class' as filtered through a rather voyeuristic "middle-class" lens. So, often featuring "feckless" characters who are grappling with problems of some kind drugs, alcohol etc.

[Alwynne]

But your description of the Sarah Hall is refreshing, the lists seem a bit staid so far. Otherwise, I'd like to see novels like The Original, Carrion Crow, Natural Beauty get some recognition. All well-crafted, inventive, and thought-provoking. As was Audition.

Would also be happy to see Spent: A Comic Novel - but I like graphic novels as a genre. I want to like Theory & Practice but I've started it twice now and it's just not working for me. Good Girl has possibilities.

[Mohamed]

https://thebookerprizes.com/the-booke...

Here are the interviews with this year's judges. Unlike the previous years, this question is not there: What are you hoping to find in selecting books for the Booker Prize 2024 longlist, and what are you seeking in a potential winner? Are there certain qualities or attributes that you’re looking for?

Being said and depending on their favorite Booker prize nominated books, we might see a family saga as a winning book

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Alwynne - to your point two of the judges call out Shuggie Bain as one of their favourite Booker winners.

Roddy Doyle referred more to books involving labour

[Mohamed]

Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer wrote: "Alwynne - to your point two of the judges call out Shuggie Bain as one of their favourite Booker winners.

Roddy Doyle referred more to books involving labour"

The Boy From The Sea has great chances now

[Laura]

I loved We Pretty Pieces of Flesh which is exactly why I can't imagine it making the Booker LL! They usually pay no account to my tastes. FWIW, though, I believe Brown is middle-class (source: old schoolfriend!) so that would very much fit the 'working-class life through a middle-class lens' theme.

Interesting discussion about Sarahs Hall and Moss. I think Hall is a far better writer than Moss though we are very much in alignment here, Alwynne - my favourite Hall novel is The Carhullan Army by miles and while I don't think Cold Earth is Moss's best, it was certainly a much more interesting effort than most of her others.

I'm planning to read the latest Hall but have not got to it yet. The Moss does not feel especially Booker-esque to me and I found the central character immensely irritating in her adult form, so I won't be backing it.

[Alwynne]

Laura wrote: "I loved We Pretty Pieces of Flesh which is exactly why I can't imagine it making the Booker LL! They usually pay no account to my tastes. FWIW, though, I believe Brown is middle-class (source: old ..."

Interesting about Colwill Brown. I was trying to work out what, if any, the connection is between this Colwill Brown and Sarah Colwill-Brown. Sarah Colwill-Brown also a writer, also from Yorkshire, also relocated to America. She was editing an indie lit mag and had a few short pieces published but then seems to have disappeared.

And I agree Hall is far more accomplished as a writer/prose stylist than Moss. I just haven't found her themes/material that appealing recently. I'll look forward to finding out what you make of her latest.

I think Heather Parry who wrote Carrion Crow is also very accomplished and her work has a very distinctive flavour.

[Emmeline]

Very interesting to see all the Sarah Moss skeptics coming out of the woodwork; I thought I was alone on that.

Alwynne, is Carrion Crow much like Victorian Psycho? I like a good gothic novel, but I tired of all the splatter in that one.

And, if Colwill Brown really is a Sarah, might we be having a year of the Sarahs to compensate for the year of the Pauls?

[Alwynne]

Laura wrote: "I loved We Pretty Pieces of Flesh which is exactly why I can't imagine it making the Booker LL! They usually pay no account to my tastes. FWIW, though, I believe Brown is middle-class (source: old ..."

Did you think there was something a little odd/off about the register when you read the Colwill Brown? I sampled it and there were some awkward shifts in register from an attempt at vernacular Yorkshire to something far more formal, standardised - sometimes the shift was mid-sentence. So the attempt at Yorkshire vernacular sometimes felt as if it was forced/artificial.

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

She has changed the name she wants to be known by.

[Laura]

Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer wrote: "She has changed the name she wants to be known by."

Yep, she was not Colwill at school, apparently. The year of the Sarahs is an appealing idea!

Alwynne - I couldn't claim to be familiar enough with the Doncaster dialect to judge. I don't find shifts unconvincing as such - I don't think dialect always has to be totally consistent - and I've seen some very positive reviews of the dialect from people who are from Doncaster/surrounding area. But if my one Donny friend gets round to reading it, I'll report back!

[Alwynne]

Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer wrote: "She has changed the name she wants to be known by."

Yes but it reinforces Laura's point about the author's background. The name "Sarah Colwill-Brown" points towards more obvious middle-class connotations. In marketing terms might undermine the notion that the novel is an authentic representation of working-class life in Yorkshire from a similarly working-class author. However, Colwill Brown much harder to pin down, more free-floating, so works better in terms of positioning the author and the novel.

[Emmeline]

That said, writing dialect can be a balancing act between wanting to convey the flavour of the sound and making sure the meaning is clear to those unfamiliar, and I expect there's a fair bit of back-and-forth between editors and authors on this.

I'm reminded of this interview* with Moses McKenzie, diving into his two distinct approaches in his two novels:

In An Olive Grove in Ends, I wrote in an anglicised Jamaican patois. What I did was perhaps the wrong decision; I diluted the language and made it more akin to broken English. In Fast By the Horns, I took a leaf out of books by Andrea Levy, George Lamming and Sam Selvon – to double down on the rhythm of the speech, the spellings too.

So these choices can be evolving, and I imagine the pressure to be clear in a first novel must be fairly strong.

*in the Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/books/202...

[Alwynne]

Emmeline wrote: "That said, writing dialect can be a balancing act between wanting to convey the flavour of the sound and making sure the meaning is clear to those unfamiliar, and I expect there's a fair bit of bac..."

That makes sense. I thought it was quite watered down, based on my experience of Yorkshire accents/dialects anyway. And sometimes it sounded more scouse than anything else! But, my main issue, was that it just didn't appeal, I found my attention wandering far too quickly. But it's great that others have enjoyed it. Reading fiction often comes down to personal tastes.

[Alwynne]

Emmeline wrote: "Very interesting to see all the Sarah Moss skeptics coming out of the woodwork; I thought I was alone on that.

Alwynne, is Carrion Crow much like Victorian Psycho? I like a good gothic novel, but ..."

Not so much splatter more a lot of oozing, flaking body parts. It's less immediate, more serious/considered than Victorian Psycho. A lot more consciously literary/intellectual. But a pretty gruelling/disturbing read overall.

[Alwynne]

Emmeline wrote: "Very interesting to see all the Sarah Moss skeptics coming out of the woodwork; I thought I was alone on that.

Alwynne, is Carrion Crow much like Victorian Psycho? I like a good gothic novel, but ..."

If you want a gothic novel then maybe try the Nell Stevens. I didn't like her earlier work but enjoyed The Original no splatter, tips more towards Wilkie Collins, with a dash of Du Maurier in terms of unsettling familial relationships and creaky old houses. Also reminded me a little of early Sarah Waters.

[Rose]

Alwynne, thanks - I've added several of your suggestions to my TBR.

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Mohamed wrote: "Boy From The Sea has great chances now..."

Or of course Seascraper.

[Mohamed]

Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer wrote: "Mohamed wrote: "Boy From The Sea has great chances now..."

Or of course Seascraper."

Yes. It would be great to see Benjamin finally recognized. It might also appeal to SJP since she loved Small things like these. SJP might also advocat for Lov Forms (The times books said: Reads like a Claire Keegan short story expanded by Elizabeth Strout)

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

I think the fact SJP actually published Claire Adam’s previous (debut) novel might be a stronger link (I have to say that Times comment makes no sense to me at all)

[Sam]

More from Ben; this time his wishlist:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DWAh...

[Sam]

GY, persuaded me to make a list. This is just a wishlist with no considerations toward what I think we be on the list.

1.Endling Maria Reva
2.The Book of Records Madeleine Thien
3. Time of the Child Niall Williams
4.We Pretty Pieces of Flesh Colwill Brown
5. Fundamentally Nussaibah Younis
6, Our Evenings Alan Hollinghurst
7. Edenglassie Melissa Lucashenko
8. The Loneliness of Sonia and Sunny Kiran Desai
9. Will There Ever Be Another You Patricia Lockwood
10. Ripeness Sarah Moss
11. People Like Us Jason Mott
12. Quarterlife Devika Rege
13. The Two Roberts Damian Barr

[Rose]

Sorry if this is an ignorant question, but does anyone have insight into how the longlist is chosen? Do they rank-choice vote, or does each judge get several picks, or do they try for consensus, or is it all shrouded in mystery?

[Sam]

Rose wrote: "Sorry if this is an ignorant question, but does anyone have insight into how the longlist is chosen? Do they rank-choice vote, or does each judge get several picks, or do they try for consensus, or..."

Threats and bribes.

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Thanks Sam. My 65th prediction so far. I have read 1-8 and 10 of your list and started 9 today. 11 I read around 100-150 pages but decided to put down and only revisit if listed - I found it slow going

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Rose. It’s down to jury. This time from brief interviews I think they read the book in batches and at each meeting tried to agree on books that were contenders. Then the idea was to make a selection at the final meeting.

I think it’s normally by consensus but some years it’s very clear individual judges get to strongly push for individual picks - 2018 with a crime and graphic novelist persuading the panel to pick a very genre crime novel and the only ever graphic novel was a clear case of that.

[Rose]

Gotcha, thanks!

[Garrett]

My most fascinating aspect of the Booker is speculating about how the discussions were constructed and held. Beyond that, I've always wanted to get a glimpse as to what a judges' notes might look like as they're reading, whatever form that might take. I think I'm just interested as to how an author or a critic would choose to organize their thoughts while judging for any literary prize.

[Cindy]

Sam wrote: "GY, persuaded me to make a list. This is just a wishlist with no considerations toward what I think we be on the list.

1.Endling Maria Reva
2.[book:The Book of ..."

I've been very curious about Jason Mott's new novel Sam. Hearing good things. Have you read it?

[Mohamed]

This is a Wishlist more than a prediction, it contains books that I enjoyed reading, others I think that will be on the list.

Flashlight
Amity
The Land in Winter
The Book of Records
Love Forms
Flesh
Seascraper
Great Black Hope
The Boy from the Sea
Dream Count
We Pretty Pieces of Flesh
The Original Daughter
Mothers and Sons

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Will add to my compilation - up to 78 now.

[Sam]

Cindy wrote: "I've been very curious about Jason Mott's new novel Sam. Hearing good things. Have you read it?"

No, I have not. Like several on my wishlist, I opted for books based on having enjoyed the author's previous work.

[Mohamed]

Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer wrote: "Will add to my compilation - up to 78 now."

Thanks! When would your analyse be ready?