2025 Booker Prize speculation

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Thanks. Looks like he is doing two lists - this one is 13 he has read and one later will be either including (or possibly entirely) ones he has not read but think sound strong possibilities (he mentions Lockwood and McEwan as two ones in consideration here).

[Carl]

Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer wrote: "Carl wrote: "I was having a conversation about the truth(?)/verisimilitude(?) of unbiased autofiction. Impossible. And in Airey's case, I found myself questioning her reality and what her perceptio..."

Yes I did! Thank you for correcting. I was eyeing Confessions to read XD

[Joy D]

Mohamed wrote: "Susan Choi newest novel Flashlight will be published in few days in UK. It is critically acclaimed by the British press, notably The Guardian, The Telegraph and today's The Financial Times. Has any..."
I am reading it now, and I really like it so far. It does seem a bit long but definitely reads as a potential Booker nominee.

[Garrett]

I can't remember if it was Ben's video, or GF&P's, but one of them talked about the content of If I Survive You, and how the eligibility process for story collections seems much more "vibes" based (my interpretation) than about the actual marketing or content of the book. I have hope that both Stag Dance and The Mobius Book are considered eligible. They certainly are both "unified substantial works," Lacey in terms of how the two halves exist in conversation with each other, and Peters based on the stories' shared thematic elements of transness and gender fluidity. Unsure if I can say the same about History of Sound, as I don't know too much about it.

For the record, I haven't read any of the three books mentioned. I'm a bookseller and just have to learn about books I haven't read to hand-sell them to customers. Much like a book report.

[Ben]

Cindy wrote: "Here is Ben's prediction video, and it was well worth the wait! Welcome back to YouTube Ben!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdOeK..."

Thank you for sharing! It was nice to have a break, but great to come back with a video I always enjoy making.

For those not into BookTube videos, here's my prediction list:

Ripeness
Helm
Nesting
The Tiger's Share
Ghost Wedding
We Pretty Pieces of Flesh
Our Beautiful Boys
Theft: By the winner of the Nobel Prize in Literature
The Imagined Life
The Other Wife
Edenglassie
The Book of Records
Saraswati

Included are three former shortlistees (Hall, Gurnah, Thien) and three books blurbed by judges (O'Donnell, Park, Thomas-Kennedy).

9 of the books (all but O'Donnell, Guha, Porter and Johal) are from the 12 publishers or imprints that have performed 'best' in the Booker over the last decade. My ranking does give weight to shortlistings and wins, which is somewhat flawed given for a longlist prediction, only longlistings really matter. But that's why Oneworld is among the 12.

As GY mentioned, my pick for the winner is We Pretty Pieces of Flesh. Having now read it, I'm surprised the Women's Prize didn't give it a nod given how much Kit de Waal champions working class writing.

(I don't actually know if Colwill Brown grew up in a working class household or considers herself as such, but the book at least is billed as being about working class friendship.)

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

I thought your formula included Orwell Prize books Ben - and that proved even more prophetic than ever last year. Do I remember correctly and I wondered why you did not include this year?

[Ben]

It did, and the consistent overlap is quite something. But this year I’m taking a guess that there won’t be any. The Orwell had multiple sequels (less likely) multiple thrillers (same) and There are Rivers in the Sky (ineligible).

That left only The Accidental Immigrants, Dream Count and Universality.

I had planned to include Universality (and would be delighted to see it on the longlist) but wonder if Natasha Brown being announced as next year’s IBP chair creates a conflict of interest.

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Makes sense

Of the sequels Ryan is ineligible (eligible last year) and I suspect writing an anti Booker satire may have damaged St Aubyn’s chances.

Tan Twan Eng would be an obvious recent counter example to the conflict issue - longlisted tge same year when he was a IB judge.

Adichie taught Adebayo when the latter was still a teenager do I would not rule out Dream Count on the judge link also albeit I think Necessary Fictions has a better chance

[Ben]

Good point on Tan Twan Eng! I had forgotten about that.

Was he actively a judge while being nominated? I can't remember the sequencing of it all.

[Sonia]

Ben wrote: "Good point on Tan Twan Eng! I had forgotten about that.

Was he actively a judge while being nominated? I can't remember the sequencing of it all."

His book was on the 23 Booker longlist, but he was a judge for the 23 International Booker

[Cindy]

Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer wrote: "I just started Helm by Sarah Hall - early days but I think it’s a very strong contender for the prize from the first 50 pages."

Have heard nothing but gushing love for this one. It's not out in the US until November, but I may have to get it early.

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

It’s more like gushing wind but I know what you mean.

Having completed it I did not think it was perfect but still definitely very longlist worthy.

[Rose]

I just finished Disappoint Me. I thought it was very good and would be happy to see it on the longlist.

[Yacka]

Several people mentioned Gliff for the longlist. When Ali Smith was last shortlisted for the Booker, she mentioned to a few people at the shortlist event signing, including me, that she does not want to go through it again. Unless she has changed her mind, Gliff will not make it to the longlist.

[Carl]

I don’t think Disappoint Me is eligible as it was published Jan 2025. Shame, as I’m adoring it too.

[Rachel]

It’s eligible. Eligibility dates are October 1, 2024-September 30, 2025.

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Agree re Ali Smith and she has not been listed since.

Especially with the Seasonal Quartet being written in real time the events/interviews/readings were too much I think … but equally she needs to finish Glyph.

I do wonder if the Booker will one day do a Best Of Ali like they did for Beryl Bainbridge.

[James]

I’m still hoping Ali Smith wins the prize outright one of these days so they don’t have to do a “Best of Ali”

[Mohamed]

Has anyone read the new Jonas Hassen Khemiri The Sisters? The novel was originally written in English and he translated/rewrote it in Swedish . It was shortlisted for last Years' August prize.

[Nicole D.]

Is Wild Dark Shore eligible? I don't see it on the list, and UK pub date seems to be Apr 2025.

[Chris]

Mohamed wrote: "Has anyone read the new Jonas Hassen Khemiri The Sisters? The novel was originally written in English and he translated/rewrote it in Swedish . It was shortlisted for last Years' A..."

I received a copy of this just yesterday and am excited to start it. It sounds intriguing. Because it was published in another language first, I do wonder about its eligibility.

[Carl]

Carl wrote: "I don’t think Disappoint Me is eligible as it was published Jan 2025. Shame, as I’m adoring it too."

And here I was thinking we were in 2026! I'm halfway through Disappoint Me and if it's not on the longest it's a sham!

[Garry]

My longlist predictions, more or less in the order that I liked them, (so, Endling was a joy, and Gliff was a tad disappointing). I've got several more to read before the end of July.

1 Endling Maria Reva
2 We Pretty Pieces of Flesh Colwill Brown
3 The Book of Records Madelein Thien
4 Audition Katie Kitamura
5 Universality Natasha Brown
6 The Emperor of Gladness Ocean Vuong
7 The Dream Hotel Laila Lalami
8 Sister Europe Nell Zink
9 A New New Me Helen Oyemi
10 Ordinary Saints Niamh Ni Mhaoileoin
11 Gliff Ali Smith

[Mohamed]

Nathan Harris new novel Amity might be longlisted. Has anyone read it?
It is 5 starts read for me

[Sam]

I'm thumbs up on Endling and The Book of Records to be longlisted. They are on my wishlist. OTOH, I seen no reason to include The Möbius Book, which I felt was a lesser effort from Lacey.

Because of some recent reads that were above par and trusted plugs for books I've not yet read, I am feeling much better about this year's crop and can see the possibility of strong longlist. Rather than thinking about what specific books are on the list, I have been spending more time thinking about what to do with certain books or what books to include from certain categories. For example, when I think of a book like Dream Count, do we want the judges to include or exclude it? One cannot deny the importance of the author, but I felt it a mediocre read, and would hate to see it take the place of a book like Universality which I rated lower than Assembly but would still prefer listed over Dream Count.

Another question is what to do with the U.S. books. We have had discussions on the role these books play in the Booker, but this year, I have not had read many that I think worth a nomination. Now, I may just be reading the wrong books but the hyped literary fiction has left me flat. My wish list book would probably be Mothers and Sons, but nothing else really stands out.

When it comes to topicality, I would like to see The Names listed if Nesting is listed because I think it interesting to see each author's approach on a similar topic, Otherwise, I would prefer the judges look more to a book's literary quality than topicality. I liked Endling, but the fact that it is Ukraine topical is less important to me than the authors skill with her craft.



LGTBQ books have also had a good year from what I've read and anticipate. I've already mentioned Mothers and Sons, but there are many more to pick from and I highly anticipate others I haven't read, like Damian Barr's The Two Roberts.

And I am also wondering what we will get from SE Asia. I very much liked Quarterlife when I first read it and was thinking it a good Booker nominee, but I think I am the only one that may have that opinion from what I have seen. My anticipated book is The Loneliness of Sonia and Sunny based on my admiration of The Inheritance of Loss but it is a chunker and I have no idea if it will be as good. I was kind of hoping the Booker judges might find a way of considering Mother Mary Comes to Me as fiction but I think the memoir designation will stand.

So this is what I offer instead of a prediction or wishlist. Eligible books I praised would be on both but instead of lists I just have questions and hopes.

Editing this post due to errors. I hope I got them all. If not blame GY because he is my editor. ; )

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Sam

Love the comments although had been hoping for a prediction I could add to my tally.

Slightly lost on one last though - it may be the heat but The Names is an English author and Dream Count an American author (Moroccan-American) but I am reading it the other way round in your post.

[Ruben]

I'll throw in some predictions too, but haven't bothered to look at geographical or gender balance. I read 10 of these:

The Pretender - Jo Harkin
Nesting - Roisin O'Donnell
The Benefactors - Wendy Erskine
Our Evenings - Alan Hollinghurst
Endling - Maria Reva
Helm - Sarah Hall
Flashlight - Susan Choi
Dusk - Robbie Arnott
Seascraper - Benjamin Wood
The City Changes its Face - Eimear McBride
Ripeness - Sarah Moss
Stag Dance - Torrey Peters
Audition - Katie Kitamura (although I loved all her others better)

I'd love to see The History of Sound - Ben Shattuck too but I suspect it's deemed too American and will do well with the American prizes.

[Sam]

You are absolutely right and I lost track of who was from where. Except Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie is Nigerian/American and it is Laila Lalami who is Moroccan/American and she wrote Dream Hotel.
I will edit my post.

The reason I erred with Florence Knapp is that The Names is doing so well in the U.S. that I made an assumption. It is a book that got little comment in our group but is quite popular here, more so than Nesting, I would say.

I still ask the question who does the U.S. have to offer this year? I would suggest The Emperor of Gladness but with the (what I think was unwarranted) hatchet job Tom Crewe gave Vuong and the novel in the Telegraph, I don't see it being nominated. I would rather have the two Canadians I mentioned America.

[Joy D]

I would hope the judges are not making decisions based on reviews but on their own perceived quality of the book.

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Other US books getting lots of tips include Audition and Will There Be Another You

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Sam wrote: "You are absolutely right and I lost track of who was from where. Except Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie is Nigerian/American and it is Laila Lalami who is Moroccan/American and she wrote Dream Hotel.
I w..."

And yes I also lost track and typed Dream Count when I meant Dream Hotel

[Owen]

Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer wrote: "Other US books getting lots of tips include Audition, Call Me Ishmaelle, Will There Be Another You"

I don't think Xiaolu Guo is American?

[Owen]

Mohamed wrote: "Nathan Harris new novel Amity might be longlisted. Has anyone read it?
It is 5 starts read for me"

I haven't, I didn't even realise it was coming out so thanks for the heads up! I really liked The Sweetness of Water, will keep an eye out for this one - not on Netgalley here yet, sadly

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Owen wrote: "Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer wrote: "Other US books getting lots of tips include Audition, Call Me Ishmaelle, Will There Be Another You"

I don't think Xiaolu Guo is American?"

No I realised that and just came back to correct.

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Ruben wrote: "I'd love to see The History of Sound - Ben Shattuck too but I suspect it's deemed too American and will do well with the American prizes

I do not think it’s eligible - or it should not be. Swift published it first in July 2024.

[Cindy]

Owen wrote: "Mohamed wrote: "Nathan Harris new novel Amity might be longlisted. Has anyone read it?
It is 5 starts read for me"

I haven't, I didn't even realise it was coming out so thanks for the heads up! I..."

I have a proof copy of Amity and this discussion has made me move it way up my TBR pile.

[LindaJ^]

Margaret wrote: "I struggled with The Book of Records too but also may revisit it if it makes the longlist."

I liked it quite a bit, although not as much as Do Not Say We Have Nothing. I think it is a book that will be just as enjoyable on a re-read.

[Erin]

LindaJ^ wrote: "Margaret wrote: "I struggled with The Book of Records too but also may revisit it if it makes the longlist."

I liked it quite a bit, although not as much as [book:Do Not Say We Have Nothing|349512..."

I'm reading this now and am surprised so many people have been saying they struggled with it, as it's actually reading quickly for me and I'm quite enjoying it.

I'm wondering what's causing the struggle for other folks - it jumps around in time, but so do a lot of novels these days (to the point where I feel like linear is the more unusual choice) - the frame story and stories within the story are actually each linear within themselves (so far, not sure what'll happen in the second section yet).

Or is it something else?

[Cindy]

I just finished Amity. It is a five-star read for me, and a strong step up from The Sweetness of Water, which I liked but did not love.

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

I am up to 39 prediction lists so far - if anyone wants to add one here I will add to my compilation.

Or if anyone has seen any on blogs (I have seen none there so far) let me know.

[Margaret]

Erin wrote: "LindaJ^ wrote: "Margaret wrote: "I struggled with The Book of Records too but also may revisit it if it makes the longlist."

I liked it quite a bit, although not as much as [book:Do Not Say We Hav..."

I'm not sure but it failed to draw me in, maybe it was just me. As I said, I may well revisit it.

[Ruben]

Amity sounds very good. But I wonder if a Western has ever been nominated for the Booker? Certainly the fanatics can help out :) Sebastian Barry comes to mind with Days Without End...

[Ben]

The most recent one I can think of is C Pam Zhang’s How Much of These Hills is Gold.

[Cindy]

Ruben wrote: "Amity sounds very good. But I wonder if a Western has ever been nominated for the Booker? Certainly the fanatics can help out :) Sebastian Barry comes to mind with Days Without End..."

It does not read or feel at all like a western. Very much in the literary historical fiction camp.

[Joe]

Patrick DeWitt’s The Sisters Brothers was very much a Western. Shortlisted in 2011.

[Cindy]

Joe wrote: "Patrick DeWitt’s The Sisters Brothers was very much a Western. Shortlisted in 2011."

That was a terrific novel.

[Rose]

Having at last read 13 books from the Listopia, I feel ready to make a prediction/wish list.

The first 10 are books I've read and enjoyed, in descending order. I don't necessarily expect them all to make the list but I'd be happy to see any of these on it. Really hoping at least the first 5 make it. The last three are books I anticipate making the list and am looking forward to reading. I didn't include any that may well be listed but I didn't really like.

1. Our Evenings
2. Beautyland
3. Universality
4. Disappoint Me
5. Mothers and Sons
6. Gliff
7. Parallel Lines
8. Tilt
9. Stag Dance
10. The South
11. Nesting
12. Endling
13. Ripeness

[ANC]

There are quite a number of predictions on Instagram now, if you follow the hashtag of #bookerprize2025

Here are some:

https://www.instagram.com/p/DMFkN-8AApu/

https://www.instagram.com/p/DMHNm4ESKWH/

https://www.instagram.com/p/DLYcHpQxi5d/

https://www.instagram.com/p/DL8HN-2tXDm/

https://www.instagram.com/p/DMD2c0LzOFb/

https://www.instagram.com/p/DL0PTrJobbt/

https://www.instagram.com/p/DMDjfMTM_bi/

https://www.instagram.com/p/DLxm2C3Akjx/

https://www.instagram.com/p/DL0_hI5gUU7/

https://www.instagram.com/p/DL2RAPxMLqD/

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Rose wrote: "Having at last read 13 books from the Listopia, I feel ready to make a prediction/wish list.

The first 10 are books I've read and enjoyed, in descending order. I don't necessarily expect them all..."

Great list. I have not read Disappoint Me but the others are all definitely very string contenders.

[Robert]

I'm giving the blog a rest so here's my predictions:

The Benefactors - Wendy Erskine
Dusk - Robbie Arnott
Absence - Issa Quincy
The Language of Remembering - Patrick Holloway
Flesh - David Szalay
Our Evenings - Alan Hollinghurst
Ripeness - Sarah Moss
Time of the Child - Niall Williams
Tony Interrupter - Nicola Barker
Will there Ever be Another You - Patricia Lockwood
Misinterpretation - Ledhia Xhoga
Call Me Ishmaelle - Xialo Guo
The South - Tash Aw

My basis for guessing is more on the tastes of the judges : Irish fiction, family dramas, complex relationships, some plot heavy novels, a bit of post modern lit.