2020 Booker Shortlist Dynamic Rankings

[Hugh]

Dynamic Rankings
The idea of dynamic rankings is to provide a measure of the collective opinion of the group on the relative merits of the books on a list. This is not intended to have any great significance or scientific value, and the more members participate, the more interesting the tables get. Please don't see this as a competition - there are always some people who aim to read a whole list and others who are happy just to sample one or two. To participate, just list the books in order of preference (best first). You can number them if you like, if not we will assign the first book 1, second 2, third 3 etc. Please do not include books that you have not started reading.

In order to make it easier for us to collate the numbers for the league tables, please try to stick to one post per member (you can use edit comment to update your lists) and refrain from general chat.

I normally try to update the league tables at least once a day until activity tails off - the master spreadsheets are on my personal laptop so I am reluctant to touch them during office hours.

Adjusted weightings table (my method)
This method has evolved and been refined over the last few years to address some perceived unfairnesses in simple averaging. The basic principle is that each member's list numbered 1,2,3,...,n where n is the number of books ranked is adjusted so that the ranked books are positioned evenly on a scale from 0 to x-1 where x is the number of books in the list (x=6 so 0 to 5 for a Booker shortlist). We also allow users to specify their predicted positions in which case we will assume that no adjustment is needed. The first table is sorted by the average of these adjusted weightings.

Aggregate of comparisons table (Paul's method)
This is an alternative league table which is sorted using a different algorithm. Each member and book is assigned an integer (which may be negative) which is the number of books the member has ranked lower than the book in question minus the number ranked higher. The overall table takes the sum of these numbers.

The 6 books on the shortlist have been announced:

The New Wilderness by Diane Cook (Oneworld Publications)
This Mournable Body by Tsitsi Dangarembga (Faber & Faber)
Burnt Sugar by Avni Doshi (Penguin Random House)
The Shadow King by Maaza Mengiste (Canongate Books)
Shuggie Bain by Douglas Stuart (Picador, Pan Macmillan)
Real Life by Brandon Taylor (Originals, Daunt Books Publishing)

[Hugh]

Shortlist rankings only:

My adjusted weightings method:

Pos, Book, Average, Adjusted, Count, First Places, STD
1, Shuggie Bain by Douglas Stuart, 1.59, 0.76, 32, 20, 0.79
2, The Shadow King by Maaza Mengiste, 2.63, 1.75, 27, 4, 0.98
3, Burnt Sugar by Avni Doshi, 3.26, 2.47, 23, 3, 1.25
4, This Mournable Body by Tsitsi Dangarembga, 3.81, 2.87, 26, 1, 1.48
5, Real Life by Brandon Taylor, 4.22, 3.26, 27, 3, 1.66
6, The New Wilderness by Diane Cook, 5.08, 4.12, 24, 0, 1.86

Paul-style aggregate of comparisons

Pos, Book, Average, Relative ranking, Count, First Places
1, Shuggie Bain by Douglas Stuart, 1.59, 90, 32, 20
2, The Shadow King by Maaza Mengiste, 2.63, 31, 27, 4
3, Burnt Sugar by Avni Doshi, 3.26, 1, 23, 3
4, This Mournable Body by Tsitsi Dangarembga, 3.81, -16, 26, 1
5, Real Life by Brandon Taylor, 4.22, -40, 27, 3
6, The New Wilderness by Diane Cook, 5.08, -66, 24, 0

Including longlist rankings:

My adjusted weightings method:

Pos, Book, Average, Adjusted, Count, First Places, STD
1, Shuggie Bain by Douglas Stuart, 1.48, 0.85, 42, 29, 0.88
2, The Shadow King by Maaza Mengiste, 2.48, 1.77, 33, 6, 1.08
3, Burnt Sugar by Avni Doshi, 2.97, 2.41, 30, 5, 1.36
4, Real Life by Brandon Taylor, 3.70, 3.02, 37, 8, 1.74
5, This Mournable Body by Tsitsi Dangarembga, 3.74, 3.11, 34, 2, 1.71
6, The New Wilderness by Diane Cook, 4.63, 4.02, 32, 0, 1.99

Paul-style aggregate of comparisons

Pos, Book, Average, Relative ranking, Count, First Places
1, Shuggie Bain by Douglas Stuart, 1.48, 109, 42, 29
2, The Shadow King by Maaza Mengiste, 2.48, 40, 33, 6
3, Burnt Sugar by Avni Doshi, 2.97, 5, 30, 5
4, This Mournable Body by Tsitsi Dangarembga, 3.74, -33, 34, 2
5, Real Life by Brandon Taylor, 3.70, -43, 37, 8
6, The New Wilderness by Diane Cook, 4.63, -78, 32, 0

[Hugh]

1 Shuggie Bain
2 The Shadow King
3 The New Wilderness
4 This Mournable Body
5 Burnt Sugar
6 Real Life

3 to 6 are quite difficult to separate, but none of them would make a strong winner.

[Robert]

1. Burnt Sugar
2. Shuggie Bain
3. The New Wilderness
4. The Shadow King
5. Real Life
6. This Mournable Body

[Ang]

1. Burnt Sugar
2. This Mournable Body
3. Real Life
-----------------------------
4. The Shadow King
5. The New Wilderness
6. Shuggie Bain

[Vesna]

2. Shuggie Bain

[Alysson]

1. Shuggie Bain
2. Bunt Sugar
3.
4.This mournable body
5. Real life
6. The new wilderness

[Paul]

1. The Shadow King
2. Shuggie Bain
3. This Mournable Body
4. Burnt Sugar
5. Real Life
6. The New Wilderness

[Jonathan]

1 This Mournable Body
2 Shuggie Bain
3 The Shadow King
4 Burnt Sugar
5 The New Wilderness
6 Real Life

[Laura]

1. Shuggie Bain
2. Real Life
3. Burnt Sugar
4. The Shadow King
5. This Mournable Body
6. The New Wilderness

[Nicholas]

1. The Shadow King
2. Shuggie Bain
3. Burnt Sugar
4. This Mournable Body
5. The New Wilderness
6. Real Life

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

I think one of 2/3/4 will win (1 should) - my ordering of those is pretty random and changes frequently.

1 Shuggie Bain
2 Shadow King
3 This Mournable Body
4 Burnt Sugar
5 Real Life
6 The New Wilderness

[Emily]

1. Shuggie Bain
2. This Mournable Body
3. Real Life
4. The Shadow King
5.
6. The New Wilderness

[Britta]

1. Shadow King
2. Burt Sugar
3. Shuggie Bain
4. New Wilderness
5. Real Life
6. Mournable Body

[Atharv]

1. Real Life
2. Shadow King
5. This Mournable Body

[LindaJ^]

1. Shuggie Bain
2. The Shadow King
3. This Mournable Body
4. Real Life
5. The New Wilderness
6. Burnt Sugar

[Anita]

1. Real Life
2.
3. Shuggie Bain
4.
5. This Mournable Body
6.

[Tracy]

1. Shuggie Bain
2. The Shadow King
3. This Mournable Body
4. Real Life
5. Burnt Sugar
6. The New Wilderness

[Tommi]

1. Shuggie Bain
2. This Mournable Body
3. The Shadow King
4.
5. The New Wilderness (still reading)
6. Real Life

[Justin]

1.
2.
3.
4.
5. Real Life
6. The New Wilderness

[Marlene]

1. Shuggie Bain
2. Burnt Sugar

[James]

1. Burnt Sugar
2. Real Life
3. Shuggie Bain
4. The Shadow King
5.
6.

[Lascosas]

1. Shuggie Bain
2. The Shadow King
4. This Mournable Body
5. Real Life
6. The New Wilderness

[Debra]

Still have a lot of reading to do...

1. Apeirogon Shuggie Bain (currently reading)
2.
3. Burnt Sugar
4.
5.
6.

[WndyJW]

1. Shuggie Bain
2. The Shadow King
3. Burnt Sugar
4. This Mournable Body (from the few chapters I’ve read.)
5. The New Wilderness
6. n/a

[Cordelia]

1. Shuggie Bain
2. This Mournable Body
3.
4. Real Life
5.
6. The New Wilderness

[Cindy]

1. Shuggie Bain
2. The Shadow King
3. Burnt Sugar
4.
5. This Mournable Body
6. Real Life

[John]

1. Shuggie Bain
2. This Mournable Body
3. Burnt Sugar
4. The Shadow King
5.Real Life
6. The New Wilderness

Order of 2, 3 and 4 very difficult.

[David]

1. Shuggie Bain
2.
3.
4. The Shadow King
5. Burnt Sugar
6. The New Wilderness

[Chris]

 
 
1. Shuggie Bain
2. The Shadow King
3. The New Wilderness
4.
5. Real Life
6. This Mournable Body

[Ella]

1. Burnt Sugar
2. Shuggie Bain
3. The Shadow King
4. This Mournable Body
5. Real Life
6. The New Wilderness

[But_i_thought_]

1.
2. Shuggie Bain (7.5/10, my review)
3. The Shadow King
4.
5.
6.

[Areeb]

1. The Shadow King
2. Shuggie Bain
3.
4.
5.
6.

(At the moment, I don't plan on reading the rest. I have a feeling This Mournable Body might win.)

[Stuart]

1. Shuggie Bain
2. The Shadow King
3. Burnt Sugar
4. Real Life
5. This Mournable Body
(I didn’t read The New Wilderness and not planning on it unless it wins the prize).
I went back and forth re the top three. I enjoyed them all. If any of my top three win, it will feel right. Although if I was a judge, I would have included The Mirror and the Light and Apeirogon...just saying!

[Susanne]

1. Shuggie Bain
2. The New Wilderness
3. This Mournable Body
4. The Shadow King
5. Real Life
6. Burnt Sugar

[Darryl]

1. Shuggie Bain
2. Real Life
3. The Shadow King
4. Burnt Sugar
5. The New Wilderness
6. This Mournable Body