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Wealth & Economics > World Leading Economies in 2024

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message 1: by Graeme (last edited Jul 20, 2020 12:07AM) (new)

Graeme Rodaughan Infographic: Continental Shift: The World’s Biggest Economies Over Time | Statista You will find more infographics at Statista

"According to data from the World Bank and IMF, Asian countries are expected to make up most of the top 5 countries in the world by size of GDP in 2024, relegating European economic powerhouses to lower ranks.

China's economic growth has been steep since the 1990s, while India and Indonesia have even more recently entered the top 10 of the biggest economies in the world and are expected to reach ranks 3 and 5 by 2024. Japan, an established economy, is expected to cling on to rank 4 in 2024, while Russia will rise to rank 6."

REF: Statista: https://www.statista.com/chart/22256/...

Where economic power goes, typically, political, military, and cultural power follows. Will this decade see a real world pivot to Asia and away from Europe and North America?

Or something else?

Does this view stand up in a COVID pandemic world?


message 2: by Nik (new)

Nik Krasno | 15186 comments Certainly an interesting chart, which reflects the tendencies hitherto and attempts to project further. Indeed, corona's ramifications would need to be factored in. Yes, the economic onus shifts towards Asia, while Europe reaps the fruits of well-being meanwhile loosing ground to "hungrier" nations. Do I see Indonesia surpassing Germany, as it shown? Not quite sure. The UK will indeed need time to climb back after Brexit. France's and Southern Europe's decline seems inevitable. Russia's climb - maybe, but I don't see enough fulcrum for it, unless oil prices skyrocket again..
We've witnessed high-tech, new-tech surpassing traditional industry and raw materials. If this tendency continues heavy industries and low-tech may not suffice for Asia to win over a Silicon Valley and the financial concentration of Wall Street and trad European banking...


message 3: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan Yeah, seems pretty dramatic to me too. Like, very big changes.


message 4: by Raymond (new)

Raymond Cushing | 225 comments Very interesting chart, Graeme.
Empires come and empires go - which reminds me of Paul Simon's Gumboots.

There's another Statista chart that I've found interesting. "The 15 countries with the highest military spending worldwide in 2019"
It shows that the United States spends the most in the world on its Military, more than the next ten highest spenders combined.

How's that going to play out as their economy shrinks while the Asian countries and Russia grow?


message 5: by Philip (new)

Philip (phenweb) | 0 comments There is a difference also between GDP as a raw measure, GDP per head (Wealth indicator) and the hidden/unhidden ownership question. e.g. Take Apple - much of its GDP and income remains outside USA therefore not in USA (ignore stock value). Will Apple's influence and income remain as high in just 3 years - I think so. Same with other big tech and big companies. Outside state (or allegedly not state) controlled companies India, Indonesia do not have same model of ownership. How much Indian, Brazilian or even Russian GDP is actually owned elsewhere

COVID impact will have major ramifications in many trade aspects in particular GDP generated by tourism, airlines and business travel. Planes get leased. Leas-ors have had their money and who are they? The financial institutions primarily located in New York and London. For all the Brexit claims London has not ceased to be a financial goliath dwarfing everywhere but New York and in many measures bigger than there.That took decades to build - from a friend at the weekend the trading floors are busy being refurbished and extra fibre connections laid during traffic hiatus.


message 6: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan Raymond wrote: "Very interesting chart, Graeme.
Empires come and empires go - which reminds me of Paul Simon's Gumboots.

There's another Statista chart that I've found interesting. "The 15 countries with the hig..."



One would think the military funding gap will close. However military development and production costs in China are lower than similar systems in the US.

Compare the J-20 with comparable US systems. REF: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chengdu...

It's a lot cheaper.


message 7: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 10943 comments I think GDP/head is also interesting. In the graph above, I think Indonesia gets there because of its bigger population. Similarly, as Philip notes, how do you count wealth when the huge US corporations have most of their production elsewhere.


message 8: by Nik (new)

Nik Krasno | 15186 comments The devastating effect of the economic impact of the virus will probably become acutely evident already in a few months


message 9: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 10943 comments The economic impact is already being felt, although not fully. Its major impact so far is in supply chains, and so far there are enough reserves it is not biting so badly, but these problems will flow through.


message 10: by Philip (new)

Philip (phenweb) | 0 comments Ian wrote: "The economic impact is already being felt, although not fully. Its major impact so far is in supply chains, and so far there are enough reserves it is not biting so badly, but these problems will f..."

National Deficits are soaring but then again they did during financial crisis. Quantitative Easing means there is no impact when everyone is in same position.


message 11: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 10943 comments Philip, that depends on how they deal with the long term. If they pay back on these bond purchases, then the future citizens have a huge debt. If they don't, why will there not be a huge burst of inflation? The only real way I can see to avoid that seems to be to have nearly everyone so poor they can't feed demand, and that means a monstrous inequality, with very few owning just about everything and the bulk being little better than serfs. You can argue that debt was the cause of feudalism. Maybe there is an alternative but I don't know what it is and I really doubt the bankers have worked it out either.


message 12: by Philip (new)

Philip (phenweb) | 0 comments Governments will print more money because they have no choice. Austerity wins few votes. It used to be called living within your means but without Sovereign funds driven by oil revenue there is little chance.. UK lost its way due to the cost of two World Wars. The USA funded European growth with the Marshall plan and deliberately excluded UK. Now the US is in total hock to China therefore it has to keep printing (figure of speech) to devalue those holdings and hope we the world keeps buying and using dollars.

https://usdebtclock.org/ should scare every US citizen and politician (UK is also bad) - it does not seem to make the news. Try running your household with similar debt ratios and see how long you can keep it...


message 13: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 10943 comments That debt clock is scary indeed. There isn't much you can do while a million dollars gets added. The real question is what happens when it can't be serviced? Does the US just cancel its debt? Cancel the debt China is holding and challenge them to come and do something about it? As they say, when you owe a thousand dollars, you have a problem. When you owe 26 trillion dollars, a lot of other people have a problem.


message 14: by Philip (new)

Philip (phenweb) | 0 comments Ian wrote: "That debt clock is scary indeed. There isn't much you can do while a million dollars gets added. The real question is what happens when it can't be serviced? Does the US just cancel its debt? Cance..."

Thanks for reminding me of the quote newly updated for the current debt clock - might hit 27 trillion this year.... and doubt tax revenue will be as good...


message 15: by Graeme (last edited Jul 24, 2020 03:55PM) (new)

Graeme Rodaughan Money printer go Brrrrrrrrrrr.......

All around the world at the moment. China has a huge debt problem too.

Clark and Dawe kinda nailed this in a sketch from 2010 (just update the msg by extrapolating to the whole world): REF: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5QwK...

The answer to the question of who will do the bailing out is the central banks via currency debasement.

This strategy will only work for a while. The end game is currency destruction and monetary system reset.

There will be a short transition period (hopefully) between our current monetary system and the next monetary system. As to the shape of the next monetary system, if I knew that - I wouldn't be posting here...

As to what it will be? My guess is no better than anyone else's.


message 16: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan Tax revenue will be rubbish across the world, with huge upticks in unemployment and business shutdowns, revenues have to drop.


message 17: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 10943 comments The real question is how do we protect against such currency debasement?


message 18: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan Hard assets.


message 19: by Philip (new)

Philip (phenweb) | 0 comments Land - with global warming and sea rises land amount globally will go down (Not buildings)
Resources - population rise will demand more and more per head

All are long term bets i.e. oil price disaster this year (from investment point of view)

Gold used to be the standard but Gold has been all over the place too as as no major nation actually uses Gold any more to underpin its currency - not when they can print more paper or add zeroes to electronic accounts.


message 20: by J. (new)

J. Gowin | 3915 comments Hard assets are the first step. To maintain actual buying power you need to follow up with an ELOC (Equity Line Of Credit).

Quick and dirty, you pay cash for a valuable asset, like a Monet painting worth $1M. Then you go to your banker and get a credit line for $500k, using the painting as collateral. Because the loan is well secured and you are definitely good for it you can expect a very attractive interest rate. 1% APR is not uncommon. Now you have half a million dollars in available cash. And since most national banks set an annual inflation rate goal of 2%, your painting grows in value faster than the loan against it accrues interest.

Next step: Buying politicians
Later: Using debt to enslave nations


message 21: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 10943 comments Yes, but my question in post 17 was how do you protect against currency collapse, like the mark in the 1920s. The answer cannot include currency. The difficulty with hard assets is they don't pay for groceries and you have to eat. In Germany, those that could used things like aniline marks, convertible by the chemical industry into USD.

I guess we are not going to see anything like that again, so the question then is, when does it get serious enough to flee into such assets? The difficulty is to find some that are not themselves hopelessly inflated in value. Fleeing into gold a year ago would have made sense now, but now . . .?


message 22: by Nik (last edited Jul 25, 2020 12:26PM) (new)

Nik Krasno | 15186 comments Ian wrote: "... The difficulty is to find some that are not themselves hopelessly inflated in value. Fleeing into gold a year ago would have made sense now, but now . . .?..."

High liquidity, not overpriced, fluctuations-resistant? Should be something harder to find than Higgs boson in a dark room


message 23: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 10943 comments Hence the problem :-)


message 24: by Nik (new)

Nik Krasno | 15186 comments Too bad high rise buildings are poorly suitable for growing cattle and Manhattan is not covered by grass lawns everywhere. They should install bigger elevators!


message 25: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 10943 comments Nik wrote: "Too bad high rise buildings are poorly suitable for growing cattle and Manhattan is not covered by grass lawns everywhere. They should install bigger elevators!"

With global warming, the Manhattan high rises will at least be close to the sea - like at the third level.


message 26: by Philip (new)

Philip (phenweb) | 0 comments Ian wrote: "Nik wrote: "Too bad high rise buildings are poorly suitable for growing cattle and Manhattan is not covered by grass lawns everywhere. They should install bigger elevators!"

With global warming, t..."


If only there were enough fish left to feed the remaining population


message 27: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 10943 comments New industry for Manhattan - fish farming :-)


message 28: by Papaphilly (new)

Papaphilly | 3358 comments Oddly enough I striper fish right next to the Statue of Liberty....8^)

I would love to know what the IMF and World Bank are using as metrics and how long ago this was produced. I am not surprised to see India entering the top ten, I am a bit surprised on Indonesia and the fall of Germany. As for China replacing the United States in three years, I seriously doubt it.

As we all know, COVID-19 has caused all sorts of chaos including economies. It will be interesting to note that stable and mature economies tend to hold when times are really bad.


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