World, Writing, Wealth discussion

253 views
World & Current Events > Coronavirus

Comments Showing 1-50 of 4,895 (4895 new)    post a comment »
« previous 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 97 98

message 1: by Lena (last edited Mar 18, 2020 09:31AM) (new)

Lena | 583 comments 624-EB6-D8-CEE7-4587-BCF8-C723-C9-DF915-D
Will it be as serious?
Is anyone else watching Netflix’s eerily timed Pandemic?
Does anyone else play Plague Inc?
I would love to know what others are thinking.


message 2: by Lena (new)

Lena | 583 comments AA6-C1-F83-35-F8-440-A-BF79-8-A65302-BF469


message 3: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan | 7064 comments The trouble is we don't have reliable information - because it's happening in China.

What's the Basic Reproduction Number R0? - I.e. if 1 person has it, how many others are likely to catch it from them. We don't know how contagious this thing is.

REF: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_r...

What's the lethality of it? I.e. if 100 people catch it - how many will die?

Are people contagious while asymtomatic? (The current thinking is yes).

How long from catching it does it take to become symptomatic? (Currently 1 to 14 days).

How long does the illness last before you die or recover?


message 4: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan | 7064 comments The second big issue is that this happened on the eve of the Chinese New Year when people travel a lot - facilitating the spread of the disease.


message 5: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan | 7064 comments The bottom line (and I sincerely hope I'm wrong) but this could be a mammoth issue for the world within a few weeks.


message 6: by Leonie (new)

Leonie (leonierogers) | 1579 comments Yes, this might or might not be a problem. Obviously, at the moment, we have fairly scant information, however, given that the most recent information suggests that people may be infectious in the up to two week incubation period, then if that turns out to be correct, then it's pretty well a given that the virus has escaped containment.


message 7: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan | 7064 comments I agree, Leonie.


message 8: by Papaphilly (new)

Papaphilly | 2432 comments I saw Pandemic on Netflix and was less than impressed. I work in emergency management and am watching the issue. This seems to spreading fast, but we shall see. This could be bad, or not. I am waiting to see how virulent it is and if it becomes more as time moves.


message 9: by J. (last edited Jan 27, 2020 05:14PM) (new)

J. Gowin | 2627 comments I guess that Captain Trips is Chinese.

CDC: 110 suspected coronavirus cases in US under investigation, number 'will only increase'

https://www.foxnews.com/health/cdc-11...


message 10: by Lena (new)

Lena | 583 comments The Stand reference, nice.


message 11: by Scout (new)

Scout (goodreadscomscout) | 5168 comments Scary that it's asymptomatic for up to 2 weeks. That means that taking the temperature of people at airports is a futile effort to contain the disease. Back when the bird flu was spreading, I bought these really good face masks that I never used. I still have them, though, so that's good, I guess. How effective are the face masks at preventing infection?


message 12: by Lena (new)

Lena | 583 comments BBDA32-A1-C441-4-FF7-AB4-D-0067-ADE6-E8-A9

Dr David Carrington, of St George’s, University of London, told BBC News that “routine surgical masks for the public are not an effective protection against viruses or bacteria carried in the air”, because they were too loose, had no air filter and left the eyes exposed.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2...


message 13: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan | 7064 comments Keep your distance then...


message 14: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan | 7064 comments So, airborne, transmissable while asymptomatic, highly contagious, reasonable high lethality 3+% most likely higher.

I think this is dangerous and the Chinese authorities are beginning to panic.


message 15: by Lena (new)

Lena | 583 comments It’s worth a bit of panic, so long as it’s motivated productive panic. This looks to be a culling - the old, the very young, the immunocompromised (is that one word?), anyone having a weak month. But with so long inside so many varied bodies, with varied environments...


message 16: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 9190 comments As far as reliable information goes, there are two problems. The first is because it can be without symptoms for two weeks the outbreak is still young and we cannot guess the final probabilities of mortality as yet.

There is a second problem that is political. Apparently there are levels of government, let us say city, provincial, national, and the levels have to report upwards when certain numbers are triggered. This tends to encourage under-reporting, at least initially, so as to keep higher-level officials off their backs. If they misguess the seriousness, though, this comes back to bite them.

As for face masks, I gather this virus is smaller than the filtering ability of most face masks, so they are not going to be a lot of help. My guess is wetting the face mask and changing frequently would help. Breathing through some filter impregnated with wet potassium permanganate would be better.


message 17: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan | 7064 comments I just booked a flight to a near asia destination for the 10th to 12th Feb.

I'll pull the flight if this situation continues to explode.


message 18: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 9190 comments It will get worse before it gets better. The long incubation period makes it very difficult to contain.


message 19: by Lena (new)

Lena | 583 comments Oh Graeme, that sounds like a bad idea. Is it a vacation away from the fire trauma?


message 20: by Scout (new)

Scout (goodreadscomscout) | 5168 comments I'm a goner, then, with my face mask, if it comes to the US. Gotta stock up on supplies if that happens and stay inside.


message 21: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan | 7064 comments Lena wrote: "Oh Graeme, that sounds like a bad idea. Is it a vacation away from the fire trauma?"

Work related (@Darwin).

If things get worse, I'll pull the plug and reschedule the activity. For most of my work, I can work from home, and I'm happy to stay there.


message 22: by Nik (new)

Nik Krasno | 13054 comments Lena wrote: "
Will it be as serious?
Is anyone else watching Netflix’s eerily timed Pandemic.
Does anyone else play Plague Inc?
I would love to know what others are thinking."


Won't be surprised seeing further quarantined cities and countries with schools and public places shut down, if and until we find out specifics and ways to contain, prevent and treat the disease. Hope the death toll won't be huge. On the other hand, a hysteria wouldn't be very helpful


message 23: by Lena (new)

Lena | 583 comments 8-ABF2-CF2-0-D3-F-478-B-94-EC-5-A9107-EE28-E7


message 24: by Marie (new)

Marie | 538 comments Scout wrote: "I'm a goner, then, with my face mask, if it comes to the US. Gotta stock up on supplies if that happens and stay inside."

There is already cases here in the U.S. Scout. You might want to go get some masks.


message 25: by Marie (last edited Jan 28, 2020 05:57AM) (new)

Marie | 538 comments There are confirmed cases here in the U.S. and major airports are screening people coming from China. Also the U.S. is warning people not to travel to China. Here is a link from CNN:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/28/health...

NBC news link:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/co...


message 26: by Lena (new)

Lena | 583 comments E3-B68-E4-C-247-E-4-DF1-9-B66-FAA505-B73436


message 27: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 9190 comments Unless the masks have exceptional filtering ability, which makes breathing difficult, they will not be of much help because the virus is too small. They will filter out sneeze droplets, but they can hit the eyes.


message 28: by Graeme (last edited Jan 28, 2020 01:00PM) (new)

Graeme Rodaughan | 7064 comments Are flights still flying out of Wuhan?

Looks like it.

https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight...

and

Visually, in real time. https://www.flightradar24.com/29.57,1...

Why haven't flights been cancelled out of Wuhan (let alone China)?


message 29: by Lena (new)

Lena | 583 comments Wow, that’s way more than charter evacuation.


message 30: by Papaphilly (new)

Papaphilly | 2432 comments Graeme wrote: "Why haven't flights been cancelled out of Wuhan (let alone China)? ..."

I think they are suspended for the time being. I believe Wuhan is in lock down as are a few other cities.


message 31: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan | 7064 comments Yeah. Reports are that the city is quarantined yet the airport seems operational.


message 32: by Papaphilly (new)

Papaphilly | 2432 comments It seems to be conflicting reports of being closed or open but no flights. There seems to be at least one plane heading to Ontario with Americans on it.


message 33: by Lena (new)

Lena | 583 comments BBA29945-D1-E7-44-EB-BDDC-BA3-B5-A896997


message 34: by J. (new)

J. Gowin | 2627 comments The linked video is a South African and an American who lived and worked in China talking about the outbreak. Their videos have been a help to me in understanding China.

https://youtu.be/lk5XkhUKMDM


message 35: by Lena (new)

Lena | 583 comments 78-F460-FD-E853-4043-BA0-B-0-E24-F0713-F32


message 36: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan | 7064 comments I walked past a cafe this morning while walking my dog. The local mainstream press was reporting the issue with regards to some local school students being told to stay home if they'd recently traveled to china.

The local authorities pinged the schools and advised that no one is infectious without also having symptoms.

Which is in direct contradiction to other reports that the virus is infectious prior to symptoms showing up.

Confusion reigns.


message 37: by Lena (last edited Jan 28, 2020 09:29PM) (new)

Lena | 583 comments I saw something about Aussie victims being sent to Christmas Island, sounds too nice to actually be so, which is also where they keep immigration detainees.


message 39: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan | 7064 comments Noting that it took months for SARS to get to these numbers.

This virus is moving faster than SARS.


message 40: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan | 7064 comments We have capacity to quarantine people in hospitals and there are inadequate medical facilities on Christmas island. Sending patients to CI would be akin to a death sentence...

That claim sounds outlandish to me.


message 41: by Lena (new)

Lena | 583 comments Graeme wrote: "https://torontosun.com/news/local-new..."

Oh that was a bad call.


message 42: by Lena (new)

Lena | 583 comments 83-C54-EE1-0-E78-4-DF6-B694-A263-BF417-AA9
It does sound outlandish. Of course Australia has facilities for quarantine.


message 43: by Lena (new)

Lena | 583 comments DB9-ADF04-259-A-40-A5-AD75-7916-B94-AD820


message 44: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan | 7064 comments Hi Lena.

I fear that the R0 for coronavirus is actually higher than that graphic.

Lethality is still TBD.


message 45: by Lena (new)

Lena | 583 comments You’re probably right. I’m finally reading more calls for 14 day quarantine. The US evacuation flight has been diverted to land at a military base.


message 46: by Lena (new)

Lena | 583 comments Ah... it seems the Christmas Island thing is real.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/202...


message 47: by Lena (new)

Lena | 583 comments Australians evacuated from Wuhan and quarantined on Christmas Island will be asked to pay some or all of the costs of their transport and quarantine.

That’s cold.


message 48: by Lena (new)

Lena | 583 comments Both New Zealand and Australians coming from Wuhan will be going to Christmas Island. As to if/when they can leave...

As to whether the evacuated Australians from Wuhan could leave the detention centre, health minister Greg Hunt said: “I’ll leave it to home affairs.”


message 49: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan | 7064 comments Well, I stand corrected.


message 50: by Leonie (new)

Leonie (leonierogers) | 1579 comments I despair about our government sometimes. Christmas Island? It's a detention centre, not a hospital...and a detention centre is bad enough.

Having said that, we have friends who live there.


« previous 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 97 98
back to top