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World & Current Events > Aramco Buqyaq Facility Bombed

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message 1: by Graeme (last edited Sep 15, 2019 03:51AM) (new)

Graeme Rodaughan | 7100 comments The Aramco Buqyaq facility has been bombed using drones.

This takes out 50% of Saudi oil production.

Any one caught shorting the Oil price or the major oil companies is going to get monkey hammered by the markets on Monday.

The Houthi rebels in Yeman have claimed responsibility and have conducted drone attacks in the past. The US state dept (Pompeo) is on record now stating that the attacks were orchestrated by Iran.

Who knows what the truth is?

The winners are the big Oil companies whose profits will go through the roof on a much higher oil price. Countries with a significant Oil industry will benefit, USA, Saudi (at 1/2 production with $110 oil is a net revenue winner), Iran, Iraq, Russia, Nigeria, even Venezuela will get into the black with crude at $100 USD per barrel.

Losers - lots. Common people will face higher fuel prices. Airlines will take a big hit as aviation fuel is a major cost for them. As I said above, anyone caught in a position short the oil price will get creamed.

The market dynamics come Monday will be spectacular to say the least. Currencies, bonds, stocks will all be affected with major wins and losses for different sectors.

I think this is also a major wake up call with regard to how basic infrastructure is defended against weaponized drones, and the costs of doing nothing are not acceptable.

message 2: by Nik (new)

Nik Krasno | 13135 comments The panic might be high, but hope the Saudis will be able to restore their production capacities soonest.
So far Saudi air-defenses have hardships in coping with UAVs attacking their oil and other assets.
Some might say that inactivity or lack of response following tanker attacks and further encroachments invite ballsier attempts...
The build-up or muscle-flexing btw the US and Iran towards a meeting or a showdown continues.. yes, unfortunately at everybody's expense too...

message 3: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan | 7100 comments I'm very curious to see how this pans out short term.

Apparently the facility has lot's of redundancy built in, which may a quick (days) return to production, otherwise the price of oil will keep rising for a while until demand and supply establish a new equilibrium.

If its only short term, Oil probably won't go all the way to $100, by what do I know?

Predicting the future...

message 4: by Nik (new)

Nik Krasno | 13135 comments So far it looks less disastrous than it first appeared. Saudis as far as I understand said they won't even cut supplies. However, the escalation is obvious..
Oil was above 100$ per barrel just a few years back. Hope we are not heading that direction again.
On a side note, we'd better be off the oil hook sometime soon

message 5: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan | 7100 comments I don't see the dependency on oil going away anytime soon.

message 6: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan | 7100 comments It looks like prices won't spike a huge amount, but if the lost production stays lost for weeks - prices will rise.

I think the more interesting issue is the drone threat in general. They are a lost cost way to create big costs on those who are attacked.

Hence lots of potential for use by any group with an axe to grind.

message 7: by Nik (new)

Nik Krasno | 13135 comments Yeah, drones - who if not Saudis would know their potential. Read somewhere that they absorbed close to 50 drone attacks and even having advance air defenses couldn't prevent all of them.
Specifically about the recent attack, although houthis claimed to have used drones, I read now that a missile attack was more likely and coming from Iraq rather than Yemen

message 8: by J. (last edited Sep 15, 2019 03:17PM) (new)

J. Gowin | 2700 comments Drone strikes are more politically useful than missile strikes. A ballistic missile follows a ballistic arc, which means it will pop up on radar, and can be tracked to its target. Therefore, its trajectory can be calculated back to its launch point. In comparison, a drone has no set ballistic path, can evade targeting, and loiter over target(s), while delivering multiple warheads, at a fraction of the cost of long or medium range missile systems. In short, the drone is cheaper, more utilitarian, and harder to prove an origin for than missiles.

The arms race around them is bound to be fascinating. Fencelines of interlocking next generation quantum radar could track and target them. The problem is that they are far more agile than any missile, and can pull far more Gs than any piloted intercetor. So interceptor drones?

message 9: by Nik (new)

Nik Krasno | 13135 comments So the West is in agreement that Iran did it:
But no response will prompt further attacks..

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