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PUPPET MASTERS AND SECRET OATHS > The 2019 UK General Election

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message 1: by Lance, Group Founder (last edited Sep 13, 2019 12:37AM) (new)

Lance Morcan | 2715 comments The next general election in the United Kingdom is scheduled to be held on 5 May 2022...but will it be sooner?

Regardless, who will win?

Currently it's...

The Tory PM Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson

VS

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn

Jeremy Corbyn


But will a dark horse like Nigel Farage create a big twist?

Nigel Farage


message 2: by Lance, Group Founder (new)

Lance Morcan | 2715 comments A general election is coming – the left must keep its focus on marginalised voters https://www.theguardian.com/commentis...


message 3: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1361 comments One possibility is that it will be a hung parliament. I pick Farage to do a lot of damage, especially to Corbyn, but I think the Libs will do better than many expect.


message 4: by James, Group Founder (new)

James Morcan | 11067 comments Real reason Boris Johnson expelled MPs from his party in clever tactic ahead of election https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/118...
BORIS JOHNSON's main aim to secure a general election is part of a secret tactic that will see the Prime Minister in a no deal Brexit alliance with Nigel Farage and the Liberal Democrats gaining seats against the Labour Party, claimed Andrew Lilico.


message 5: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1361 comments Maybe, but I think a leader has no choice but to eject rebellious MPs. If he does not, he is in an impossible position because they will do it again. Johnson was elected PM by then party and it was not close. The losers have to accept a vote. This lot were a bunch of gutless wonders who did not even have the courage to come out and state what they were really standing for - rejecting the referendum, and then having the cheek to accuse Johnson of being anti-democratic.


message 6: by Lance, Group Founder (new)

Lance Morcan | 2715 comments Jeremy Corbyn could be installed as PM to wreck Brexit in ‘new SNP plot’ https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/...
Opposition parties in the UK have hatched a desperate plan to try to thwart any attempt by PM Boris Johnson to exit the EU without striking a Brexit deal.


message 7: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1361 comments Talk about lies and hypocrisy - "the only reason we want Corbyn in is so we can have an election. Um, has not Boris called for an election, and offered it? For Corbyn to become PM, all the Tory rebels have to vote for him. I bet the electorates would be furious about that, and given they got into Parliament as Tories, to vote for a socialist PM and support him would make Janus look single-minded. Incidentally, Corbyn cannot call an election; it needs a 2/3 majority and the Tories can sabotage that if they feel like it, so as to let everyone know exactly what Corbyn is.


message 8: by P.K. (new)

P.K. Davies Ian wrote: "Talk about lies and hypocrisy - "the only reason we want Corbyn in is so we can have an election. Um, has not Boris called for an election, and offered it? For Corbyn to become PM, all the Tory reb..."

it's interesting that our shenanicans are attracting attention from elsewhere. There is no clear view of the way ahead. After the Supreme Court declared that prorogueing Parliament was unlawful (not illegal; a different thing) and Parliament assembled the following day it was a chaotic, highly emotional, combative welcome that Johnson got in the House. As everyone said, it was not a pleasant spectacle to see them going at each other like the Italian parliaments of the fifties. Although Johnson was criticised for his part (calling the opposition vote to ask for a further extension on Brexit as 'the surrender bill') he probably did no harm to his party or to the Brexiteers in the country. But the way ahead is not clear. Johnson's call for an immediate election was rejected by all oppositions (because, rightly, they know that if they voted for one Brexit could happen on Oct 31 while the process was in motion). So Johnson either has to abide by a law already passed that he must ask for an extension to Brexit by Oct 19, which he has many times said he won't, or he must come up with some unexpected ploy for not doing so. The only one I can think of with any chance of working is to resign as PM, thus forcing another leadership election which would take weeks and go beyond the Oct deadlines so we would crash out on Oct. 31. But it is now getting nasty. Johnson has been accused of using money illegally to float an American blond when he was Mayor of London and now, today, he has been accused of sexual harrassment by someone ('He touched my knee at a private dinner). When we have an election the obvious divisions will emerge; the Lib Dems will do very well as the true anti-Brexit party but the pro-Brexiteers may get split as the Conservative, very foolishly, have said they will not make any deals with Farage's Brexit Party so they may be challenging each other in constituentcies. Watch this space.


message 9: by James, Group Founder (new)

James Morcan | 11067 comments P.K. wrote: "it's interesting that our shenanicans are attracting attention from elsewhere. ..."

Shenanigans in major nations like the US, Britain, China and elsewhere have ripples globally, P.K.
That's the way I see it, anyway.


message 10: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1361 comments One commentator here made an interesting suggestion for Boris. Parliament has asked him to request a postponement if he cannot get a deal, so he could send them a letter requesting one. That would comply with Parliament's request (according to the commentator - I don't know whether this is true) but he would not have to sign it. He merely has to request. If he did not sign it, the EU would be unlikely to agree to it. Parliament also did not specify the text - he could request it on the grounds that Parliament desperately needs more time to fight and insult each other more.

P.K. Makes a very good point about Farage. If there were an election, what Farage does specifically could be critical. Last night I watched a BBC drama on this - "A Very Uncivil War" I think it was called. Farage did not come out as being that clever - more a rogue element. The role of Dominic Cummings was, as far as I can see, what lead to Brexit.


message 11: by P.K. (new)

P.K. Davies Ian wrote: "One commentator here made an interesting suggestion for Boris. Parliament has asked him to request a postponement if he cannot get a deal, so he could send them a letter requesting one. That would ..."

The letter of which you speak, Ian, is a Parliamentary bill passed into law which commits the PM to write to the EU if he has not reached an agreement with them by the 19th, Oct. requesting an extension to Article 50 taking out of the EU. Various suggestion of what he might do have emerged because he has categorically stated that he 'would rather die in a ditch than ask for another extension'. One is that he should write two letters, one conforming with the Parliamentary Bill asking for an extension and another saying he does not agree with it an does not want one, hoping that the 27 countries would realise it was a waste of time granting an extension. But legal eagles have said that that would fall foul of the Supreme Court ruling that he cannot do anything to derail a legitimate vote of the Commons. So we all await what other ploy he will find not to send such a letter if he fails to reach an agreement by the 19th. Meanwhile, the opposition attempt to bring a motion of no confidence and defeat the governemnt and then put in a temporary PM, which would be Jeremy Corbyn as the official opposition leader, has crashed because Jo Swinson, the new leader of the Lib. Dems. will not accept Corbyn even as a temporary PM. She would support someone else, like one of the rebel Conservatives even, but Corbyn is sticking to his right to form an alternative government.
Nigel Farage has a big following; many people like his uncompromising attitude and straight talking and the Conservatives will ignore him at their peril in an election as he will certaily split their support if Johnson fails to get a deal. Dominic Cummings is being labelled the 'Eminence Gris' and blamed for Johnson's uncompromising language. He is a clear-headed thinker and is pushing Brexit at any price.


message 12: by P.K. (new)

P.K. Davies James wrote: "P.K. wrote: "it's interesting that our shenanicans are attracting attention from elsewhere. ..."

Shenanigans in major nations like the US, Britain, China and elsewhere have ripples globally, P.K.
..."


Yes, we are are joined at the hip in this world, James. And I do think the UK is still a big hitter where world opinion matters.


message 13: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1361 comments My view on what such a letter should say is the truth: 'Parliament has passed a bill that requires me to write to you to request an extension. There is no evidence they will put the time to good use.'

That would follow the law, but it is the strongest you could make it suggesting it would be a waste of time, which it would.

I don't think Corbyn could get a majority because even apart from the Lib Dems, I can't see the Tory rebels supporting him as PM, and I can't see a "remain" Tory being acceptable to enough of the Tory party, and there would be a number of Labour MPs that could not support a Tory. So I think Boris will remain PM. It is a pity that some form of sense could not strike home.

Perhaps the most interesting part of that BBC program was it showed some of the established Tory leaders as quite antiquated people - almost caricatures. If they are really as bad as that, things will not get better soon.


message 14: by James, Group Founder (new)

James Morcan | 11067 comments P.K. wrote: "And I do think the UK is still a big hitter where world opinion matters...."

Absolutely.


message 15: by James, Group Founder (new)

James Morcan | 11067 comments "Great" "literature"...I'm sure...

Seventy Two Virgins

written by...Boris Johnson

Seventy Two Virgins by Boris Johnson


message 16: by P.K. (new)

P.K. Davies James wrote: "P.K. wrote: "And I do think the UK is still a big hitter where world opinion matters...."

Absolutely."


I had missed that one, James. With the latest accusations of Johnson fondling someone's knee under a table I'm sure he writes with some authority and perhaps even the title is justified. It might have been lifted from a riskee song we used to sing while marching; 'Four and twenty virgins came down from Inverness, when the party was over there were four and twenty less...'


message 17: by P.K. (new)

P.K. Davies Ian wrote: "My view on what such a letter should say is the truth: 'Parliament has passed a bill that requires me to write to you to request an extension. There is no evidence they will put the time to good us..."

fossilised Tories? Yes, there are still a lot of those and a lot of fossilised supporters of them too. That's why the party has always been so split over Europe.


message 18: by Lance, Group Founder (new)

Lance Morcan | 2715 comments Brussels bets on UK general election to resolve Brexit impasse https://www.ft.com/content/7e1de956-e...
As Johnson’s hopes for a deal fade, EU banks on forcing a second referendum

Will fake news wreck the coming general election? https://www.theguardian.com/media/201...
Have the social media giants cleaned up their act since the scandals of 2016? We give the big names a healthcheck


message 19: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1361 comments I would take a side bet there will be plenty of lies and fake news in any election, and even more accusations of them. I also believe such an election would bring out the worst in society, although I hope I am wrong. The recent statement from the leader of Eire that the backstop provided the ONLY route to an agreement, and had it happened, he would veto any proposal to end it will not go down well with many, and the same story coming from Brussels will get a lot of backs up. The short meaning that proposal is that Brussels will do everything in its power to get the UK to toe the Brussels line, and they will be caught in a legal tar baby. That will not go down at all well with a lot of voters who are neutral to Brexit.


message 20: by P.K. (new)

P.K. Davies Lance wrote: "Brussels bets on UK general election to resolve Brexit impasse https://www.ft.com/content/7e1de956-e...
As Johnson’s hopes for a deal fade, EU banks on forcing a second refer..."


There is a blanket of obvuscation wafting over the Channel, sometimes it swings one way and then the other way. The EU have made official noises that the UK plan submitted is being carefully considered whilst allowing unspecified officials to say there is no chance of it being accepted. And the Irish foreign and prime ministers have openly denied it would be accepted. The EU members are considering the plan on Friday. Meanwhile, Johnson has reitterated that we would be leaving on the 31st. Oct but at the same time saying he would abide by a Parliamentary Bill forcing him to ask for an extension to Article 50 implimentation. Nobody knows if he has unknown cards to play as one does not comply with the other. Ironically, the new plan has had a good reception in the Commons by all but Coryn and most observers think the numbers are there to get it passed. So the EU is between a rock (the plan) and a hard place (the Irish). If they vote down the plan they will risk a no-deal Brexit (assuming Johnson has another plan to delay until the 31st.) But if they accept the plan they will upset the Irish which is a red-line for them. My bet is they will prevaricate by suggesting tweeks to the plan to encourage Johnson to accept a delay beyond the 31st.


message 21: by P.K. (new)

P.K. Davies Ian wrote: "I would take a side bet there will be plenty of lies and fake news in any election, and even more accusations of them. I also believe such an election would bring out the worst in society, although..."

If or when we have an election the atmosphere will depend on whether or not we have left the EU. If we haven't left the electorate will be volatile and voting will be split many ways. If we have left the chances are that the Conservatives will return a majority as the opposition will be split. But either way, the arguments will continue


message 22: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1361 comments The last I heard in our morning paper Johnson is considering going to the Supreme Court to get the Act that he must request an extension unconstitutional. This is more subtle than it looks because since there is clear evidence Baroness Hale is anything but impartial (apparently she publicly mocked Boris over the weekend) the move is more to strengthen his position as "fighting the recidivist establishment". The more interesting question is, suppose he lodges the request, Brussels grants it for spurious reasons, and he goes back to Parliament and asks them, well, what deal would you accept and steps away from it, not what? What would the opposition do? All Boris has to do is to say that if thy can cm up with something, other than the backstop, he will take it to Brussels. My guess is all Corbyn could manage would be to ask for a second referendum, but Boris could respond and say there simply is not time, after all who wants a referendum for Christmas? What would happen then?


message 23: by P.K. (last edited Oct 08, 2019 07:19AM) (new)

P.K. Davies Ian wrote: "The last I heard in our morning paper Johnson is considering going to the Supreme Court to get the Act that he must request an extension unconstitutional. This is more subtle than it looks because ..."

The situation as of today is that No10 has acknowledged that, after Johnson talked with Merkel he has pronounced there is no chance of his latest offer being accepted and Merkel has confirmed that in an unusually scathing comment on the proposal.
So, more than ever it looks likje we are heading to a stalemate which will mean a no-deal more likely than ever. The interesting question for politico-watchers is why Merkel has come out so strongly now, before the EU Summit meeting on Friday where the 27 were supposed to consider the UK proposals. One answer would be that she is confident that Johnson will have to ask for an extension to Article 50 and then a General Election would bring in a different government (hopefully, to the EU, an anti-Brexit one) or that she, and others, are so pissed-off with Brexit that they want it to be over even with a no-deal. If it is the former, she may have gambled badly as Johnson is still saying we will get out on the 31st with or without a deal. We don't yet know how he can fiddle that one but he is very confident about it.
What you said, Ian about asking Parliament and/or Corbyn what they would do to get Brexit over the line, the answer is that he has done that, several times, both in the Commons and he and his ministers many times in interviews and the answer has always been.... no solution.


message 24: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1361 comments The most recent information I have is that Donald Tusk has also given what is essentially a total rejection of Boris' proposal to the EU on behalf of the Commission, which makes it look as if the Boris deal is dead in the water.

The EU gambling that Boris would request an extension, they would grant it, then there would be an election with a new government seems to me basically wishful thinking. Boris does not have to call an election. He might be in a position to simply run down the clock again, in part because he can't call an election because he needs 2/3 majority, and Boris would demand the Labour members declare where they stood individually on Brexit. That could give a lot of Labour members in the seats that voted for Brexit to have nerves, and it is even possible the Tory rebels might have second thoughts at being unemployed (because they would not represent the Tories if they were ejected).

I rather fancy that Macron at least, and maybe Merkel, are getting so pissed off with the whole business they won't grant an extension.


message 25: by P.K. (new)

P.K. Davies One of the leaks coming from No 10 is that Boris is trying to get one of the 27 to veto the extension idea by promising them support for something else. He met with the Hungarian PM over the weekend and we know that Hungary are at loggerheads with the rest about immigration and their right-wing take on it but there was not much optimism that they would give Boris what he wanted. Once an extension of three months has been granted I don't think there would be any problem in the Commons voting for an election, otherwise, if they refused, the opposition would look pretty stupid to the electorate. If Boris manages to find a way to delay and a no-deal looms I still think there will be panic in the ranks, especially from Ireland.


message 26: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1361 comments P.K., I was more thinking that Boris might decide not to offer it, and instead tell the opposition, OK, you wanted 3 months to form a deal acceptable to them - now take your time and bring one back. As for Ireland, they have to make up their mind, but there is no real reason to need a hard border from the UK side. Everything a border does can be done later with only a machine-readable declaration at the border, and the occasional random inspection. OK, not totally a soft border, but it should not impede legitimate crossing. Everything the border does is probably done right now anyway, except not at the border.

As for the request, there is another aspect: Boris has to make the request, but when is not specified. If he leaves it late enough there may not be time for a proper answer.


message 27: by P.K. (new)

P.K. Davies The Commons Bill declared that he has to send a letter by the 19th if he has not tabled a new deal. In the circumstances the opposition might have to do exactly that and try to get a deal themselves, but there have been no suggestions from them as to what that deal would be.They are very good at shooting down ideas but not good at making ones of their own. The fallout from the Merkel meeting have really soured relations and while other EU leaders are saying that the language reported is not Merkelise, she hasn't yet come out and denied that she did'nt say Boris' plan was 'essentially impossible.' Boris is seeing the Irish PM this week but all the body language is that a no-deal looms - if Boris can find a way of getting to 31st as PM and without an extension.


message 28: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1361 comments Our paper this morning has a statement that Merkel and the Head of the EU parliament have effectively stated that in support of Eire, the only deal they will countenance is Northern Ireland remaining in the EU market, indefinitely. That to me says no deal is possible (assuming it is true).


message 29: by P.K. (new)

P.K. Davies Ian wrote: "Our paper this morning has a statement that Merkel and the Head of the EU parliament have effectively stated that in support of Eire, the only deal they will countenance is Northern Ireland remaini..."

Yes, that seems to be the definitive stance of the EU. It is so demonsrative that we have to wonder if they are just facing up to Boris with a King High in their pack. Boris is seeing Varadkar (Ireland) today so we should know whether it's bluff or fold by tomorrow.


message 30: by Lance, Group Founder (new)

Lance Morcan | 2715 comments Let's hope all parties take this gentleman's advice... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nR0lO...


message 31: by P.K. (new)

P.K. Davies There's no sign of panic yet, but it is all reminiscent of Dad's Army. Muddling through, that's the policy


message 32: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1361 comments With the way the MPs are behaving, is there an alternative? :-(


message 33: by Lance, Group Founder (new)

Lance Morcan | 2715 comments Iain wrote: "Ian wrote: "With the way the MPs are behaving, is there an alternative? :-("

Your own personal Brexit? Leave the country?"


Head for Godzone (NZ) perhaps.
Our government (in its wisdom?) has an open door policy where migrants are concerned...I'm sure we'd welcome a few more Brits.

Footnote: Critics say NZ is sinking...and it may not because of climate change or rising seas...


message 34: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1361 comments That works for one (or so) out of about 65 million :-)


message 35: by Lance, Group Founder (new)

Lance Morcan | 2715 comments Iain wrote: "Lance wrote: "Iain wrote: "Ian wrote: "With the way the MPs are behaving, is there an alternative? :-("

Your own personal Brexit? Leave the country?"

Head for Godzone (NZ) perhaps.
Our governmen..."


"I am on the Titanic anyway listen to the band play a lot of nonsense while I am looking for a life raft!"

Don't forget to rearrange the deck chairs whilst you are looking, Iain! And enjoy the view...while there still is one...


message 36: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1361 comments According to Lance I had better buy a boat. My house is only 70meters above sea level - glug!


message 37: by Lance, Group Founder (new)

Lance Morcan | 2715 comments Ian wrote: "According to Lance I had better buy a boat. My house is only 70meters above sea level - glug!"

No need to worry, Ian. The experts say the sea will only rise 65 meters around your place...


message 38: by P.K. (new)

P.K. Davies Ian wrote: "With the way the MPs are behaving, is there an alternative? :-("

The only alternative to a vituperative parliament is some form of dictatorship (other than the EU), so however frustrating and time-consuming the arguments are they are the best we have and we thank our history for them.


message 39: by P.K. (new)

P.K. Davies Iain wrote: "P.K. wrote: "Ian wrote: "With the way the MPs are behaving, is there an alternative? :-("

The only alternative to a vituperative parliament is some form of dictatorship (other than the EU), so how..."


You've seen nothing yet, Iain. Just wait until you have independence.


message 40: by James, Group Founder (new)

James Morcan | 11067 comments So the Northern Irish might be the difference?

Brexit: EU and UK reach deal but DUP refuses support https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-...


message 41: by P.K. (new)

P.K. Davies Iain wrote: "P.K. wrote: "Iain wrote: "P.K. wrote: "Ian wrote: "With the way the MPs are behaving, is there an alternative? :-("

The only alternative to a vituperative parliament is some form of dictatorship (..."


You mean those guys from OZ ? They don't like any sort of union; they managed to trash all the union of journalists here before taking their toxins elsewhere.


message 42: by P.K. (new)

P.K. Davies James wrote: "So the Northern Irish might be the difference?

Brexit: EU and UK reach deal but DUP refuses support https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-..."


Yes, the news is that Boris has done the impossible and rewritten the Withdrawal Agreement. Parliament is sitting on Saturday to consider the deal. (for the first time on a Saturday since the Falkland's War. I hope that isn't an omen.) But it's very doubtful if he will get the numbers to have the deal approved. Quite a few Labour MP's will oppose their whips and vote for it but we already know he has lost the ten Ulster Unionist votes and none of the die-hard Remainers will come to his rescue despite the fact that by not doing so they make a no-deal exit more likely. Common sense is in short supply. But who cares? I shall be watching a lot of Rugby that day - and most of the rest of the country I suspect will be doing the same.


message 43: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1361 comments Certainly it will make tomorrow's news here more interesting, assuming the news guys can detach themselves from the rugby result.


message 44: by P.K. (new)

P.K. Davies Iain wrote: "P.K. wrote: "James wrote: "So the Northern Irish might be the difference?

Brexit: EU and UK reach deal but DUP refuses support https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-..."

Yes, the news is that..."


Everyone to their own poison, Iain.


message 45: by P.K. (new)

P.K. Davies Ian wrote: "Certainly it will make tomorrow's news here more interesting, assuming the news guys can detach themselves from the rugby result."

And the latest after the Saturday sitting is that a Remainer Conservative tabled a motion that, before voting for the new deal, Johnson would have to let the House debate all the details of it. In other words, making for a further delay. That motion was carried by 322 to 316. It looks like the goverment would have just scraped home if they had voted for the deal. Since then, Johnson has written the ordered letter to the EU requesting an extension (which he said he would rather die in a ditch than do) but the letter was just a copy of that motion passed by Parliament and he didn't sign it. He also delivered a second letter saying that he did not want an extension as any delay would be bad for everybody. That one he did sign. It remains to be seen whether he has abided by the law and this is to be tested by the Scottish courts on Monday.
Meantime, well done NZ but the next match won't be so easy.


message 46: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1361 comments The fact it will be tested in the Scottish court is suggestive to me that court is more likely to be biased. It brings in the delicate question of whether abiding by the law means the law as written (which I believe it does) or what someone thinks is "the spirit of the law", which in my opinion, should be reserved for giving the benefit of the doubt and declaring not guilty despite a little doubt. This should be interesting.

P.K., the next match will be interesting, but I am optimistic. The Irish lost to mobility, and looking at the size of some of the English players, I believe that mobility will hurt if the ABs can avoid too many set pieces. I think England will find that match anything but easy. Of course I am biased on this one :-)


message 47: by Lance, Group Founder (new)

Lance Morcan | 2715 comments Ian wrote: "The fact it will be tested in the Scottish court is suggestive to me that court is more likely to be biased. It brings in the delicate question of whether abiding by the law means the law as writte..."

I'm with you on Brexit and the footy Ian.
Re the more important of the two (footy) others (who shall remain unnamed...like PK) need to remember England was up against very mediocre opposition in Australia. But PK is right when he says "the next match won't be so easy" (for England).


message 48: by James, Group Founder (new)

James Morcan | 11067 comments Brexit: PM to push for election if EU offers longer delay https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-...


message 49: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1361 comments And he may have trouble getting that through too because only too many of them won't want an election and I think he needs 2/3.


message 50: by James, Group Founder (new)

James Morcan | 11067 comments If true, two thirds is a lot. especially under these conditions.


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