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MISCELLANEOUS TOPICS > FINANCE, BUSINESS AND ECONOMY

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message 1: by Vivek (new)

Vivek Kumar | 1 comments Fix your this problem- financial freedom. Don’t waste time thinking about. Read your secret


https://www.waittoremindfire.com/want...


message 2: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1323 comments Since the main problems of the last financial crisis are still with us, only debt levels are higher, it would a brave seer to pronounce no such crisis is coming.


message 3: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1323 comments I think what happens will depend to some extent on what happens to all the debt floating around. There are still a deluge of "financial products" such as derivatives, etc out there, with little real backing, other than the hope nobody will ask for the backing.

As you say, here's hoping nothing really bad happens. As long as nobody pricks the balloon, it will stay inflated.


message 4: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1323 comments We shall have to wait and see. A lot will also depend on the US China spat. The world seems to be going into trade blocs, which is not good, but I don't think anyone can know what will happen. We all just look at the rune stones and pick an outcome.


message 5: by James, Group Founder (new)

James Morcan | 10550 comments Iain wrote: "From the guy who brought us the book: "The Creature from Jekyll Island", that charted the formation of The Federal Reserve.

If there's a Dollar crisis looming, what would replace it other than SDR..."


Griffin knows a lot. And keep in mind when he brought out that first Federal Reserve book (Creature) not many people were aware of that topic back then.


message 6: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1323 comments I saw a TV program recently where it was stated that the evidence I that bitcoin has attracted the attention of the criminal hackers. I also know one bitcoin broker was cleaned out for millions, so it is probably not as secure as some think. Not good for a reserve currency :-)


message 7: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1323 comments As a race, it seems Trump is determined to win it by blocking off others from using Huawei technology. It is far from clear how well that will succeed.


message 8: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1323 comments Knowing the general incompatibility of different systems, I susp[ect whatever option is initially chosen will have considerable down-stream consequences to the infrastructure. What we need is some form of standardization, otherwise we might see driverless cars all have to be Teslas (Very good but expensive) or some Chinese version (reasonable and cheap). My guess is, once you choose, the options close.


message 9: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1323 comments Iain, I suspect that Musk is on the right track. If you do build it "Lego-like" all you have to do is take out the controller system and replace it with a different one. A tyre is a tyre, a battery is a battery, an electric motor merely requires the right voltage, and that is determined by the batteries, not anything else, so with the self-drive system, it would be the control package and the sensors.

As for getting everybody to agree with a standard, I am far from sure that even God knows how to get that done.


message 10: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1323 comments Not sure about phones. I keep my phone for almost a decade so I should not vote on this issue. As an aside, I heard somewhere that China is trying to control as much of the world supply of iridium that it can. Be interesting to see if it succeeds. At present, iridium is a necessary element, admittedly used in small amounts, for mobile phones.


message 11: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1323 comments Rare earths are not that rare - they are about as common as copper. The problem with them is they tend to be dispersed and it is difficult to find a good concentration of them. Then, when you do, there are 14 of them that have to be separated, they all have very similar properties, and these are similar to a number of other elements like lanthanum, so actually getting a specific element is tricky and time-consuming..

I don't see Japan having them on their territory, but I suppose they could process somebody else's. I believe North Korea has quite good deposits.


message 12: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1323 comments Hard to know about North Korea. The system has been so much based on terrorising their people that I am not sure they would consider letting go. At least not soon. It is probably the last Stalin-type society.


message 13: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1323 comments There is no reason why a communist country cannot get a modern economy, after all China did and Russia may be at least partly along the way (I do not know what Russia is like internally now) but the current repressive regime has to give way first and I cannot see that happening anytime soon. Kim does not look excessively enlightened, and his General have too much to lose to be very interested in being liberal. But then again, who knows? The north is apparently very mineral rich, and maybe China would encourage getting that opened up.


message 14: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1323 comments There is no doubt he initial projects have a lot of "waste" because the developers have yet to get the technology right. It is not that they are stupid - it is that something happens they did not expect. It has happened to me too :-(


message 15: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1323 comments In some of my futuristic novels I opted for an economic future that was a somewhat modified version of a prediction of J K Galbraith. He argued that economic power would transfer to giant corporations, and in my version, I melded that with the expected resource shortages in a couple of hundred years. The ideal was that governments forced every corporation to provide their share of employment opportunities in return for their monopoly, and their share of governing power. That is a very brief description, and the idea was that everyone was guaranteed sufficient to live through a second form of currency, consumption coupons, which went to the person by right. Money gave the right to the quality or brand of the consumption.

Needless to say the stories were about what goes wrong with such a system.


message 16: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1323 comments Iain wrote: "Ian wrote: "In some of my futuristic novels I opted for an economic future that was a somewhat modified version of a prediction of J K Galbraith. He argued that economic power would transfer to gia..."

Galbraith's hypothesis was that as corporations grew bigger, they would act more like countries except instead of having land borders, they would have "economic interest" borders. In the novels, I assumed their "acting like countries" would extend to a sort of economic warfare, and of course, opportunities to behave badly. As to your specific question, my "future" was predicated on the resource shortages, and to cope with that the government had to intervene and allocate them. Now, making money is not even an objective. You have to make some, but power becomes the new corporate aphrodisiac. (That helps the story, of course.) The next point is that with the limited production it becomes more important to repair things, so things are designed to last, and with the consumption restrictions this created a slightly different way of valuing things. Take something like a washing machine. As it gets older it loses value because it is more likely to need repair, and, well, it looks tattier. But then a remarkable thing happens. It gets to the point where everyone agrees repairing it again is futile, so it qualifies for a new one, so it suddenly becomes valuable because replacing an object to be recycled does not need the very difficult to obtain consumption coupons, and a washing machine would consume a lot.

So, links. The novels were written as a single novel (originally to hopefully capture some of the enthusiasm for a certain butte on Mars, but NASA got there while I was half finished. The novel got out of hand and got converted to a trilogy.

The economic system is outlined in "A Face on Cydonia": http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00BQPUG6Q

The intercorporate behaviour and a deeper look in "Dreams Defiled": https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01N24ATF7

The third book adds little to the economic thinking, but throughout the first two there is the development of AI. You can probably guess where that goes from the title "Jonathon Munros": http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00EK5T6WE


message 17: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1323 comments The Royal Society of Chemistry listed about a dozen elements where current production and reserves will not match future demands and there are some others like phosphates. Additionally, there are elements like cobalt that, if we elect to chase after electric cars, there are no known reserves capable of matching demand. To give an idea, since we introduced the "wiping phone screen" we have chewed through half the indium we know about. There is a real shortage of iridium, which is essential for modern electronics. And so on.

Rare earths are not that rare actually, but the trouble with them is it is hard to find them in a form easily processed. They have very similar chemical characteristics with themselves and a number of other elements, so purification is tough. The Moon may be a good source - there are large areas of KREEP (potassium, rare earth elements and phosphate)

As for my novels, no worries, no obligation :-)


message 18: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1323 comments Iain, the following link offers the same info - but from the ACS
https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/gr...

The cobalt one is interesting because most people do not factor in what you might call indirect uses. You do not need cobalt to make a Li ion battery, but you do if you want it to last.

In my novels, I envisioned that things had to be made to last, and traded in for new ones, the reason being in that would be the only way to guarantee getting them back for recovery of elements. The elements do not disappear, but having them dispersed all over the place is roughly the same. In such a future the "free market" has to disappear because you cannot afford the waste that occurs.

As for cars, the simplest solution I envisioned is that people start living near where they work and walk there. They can hire auto-drive vehicles for luxury/entertainment visits, or use public transport. Obviously one problem is shortage during high demand, for example the once in a year major sporting event will have a demand that cannot be met by auto-drive, but now you can't find parking anyway.

The reason Mars gets more attention that the Moon is the theory we could eventually terraform it. We can't, because there is not enough material like nitrogen there. However, we could live in domes. The Moon really is not that attractive for the long term because there is no air, and it all has to be brought from somewhere, including to compensate for everything that is lost, e.g. from minor leaks and airlock use. It may well be that KREEP is eventually mined, but the Moon is an unlikely source of many elements because it has had no geochemical processing to concentrate ores.


message 19: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1323 comments Iain wrote: "Ian wrote: "Iain, the following link offers the same info - but from the ACS
https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/gr...

The cobalt one is inter..."


There is nothing as good as copper. I suppose silver might do, but it is not exactly easier to contain in large amounts. There are other elements that conduct electricity, but not as well as copper. Thus aluminium is used for high tension power lines, where it doesn't matter if you use more, and you probably need fairly fat wires anyway for the heat.

Yes, remote working will be goo for some, but I feel there will be a lot of jobs where you have to be there. Maintenance, trades, hospitality, etc. If automation replaces jobs on location, it may well replace those jobs completely.


message 20: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1323 comments Iain wrote: "Ian wrote: "Iain wrote: "Ian wrote: "Iain, the following link offers the same info - but from the ACS
https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/gr......"


Not necessarily. Recycling is best done at source. If it has been in a dump the chances are it is diluted far more with dirt, etc so processing could be expensive.


message 21: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1323 comments Recycling is always easier if the items can be acquired separately. The separation from a mixture is always possible, but at a cost. As an example of avoiding dilution think of gold. There is more gold in the oceans than man has ever mined, but try getting it out :-)

Elements never disappear (apart from H and He, and nuclear reactions) - they just get dispersed. Our problem is that over billions of years nature has concentrated some on ores, but when we use those, we are back to the dilute stuff. The ores arise from geothermal processing, which is why somewhere like the Moon probably has few - there was no plate tectonics or volcanism, which are two of the enhancing processes.


message 22: by Rahul (new)

Rahul Verma (rverma) what a coin catchy name for e commerce portal


message 23: by Lance, Group Founder (new)

Lance Morcan | 2580 comments Rahul wrote: "what a coin catchy name for e commerce portal"

That's what I'm talkin' about! Well done Rahul.


message 24: by Rahul (new)

Rahul Verma (rverma) found a catchy name ?


message 25: by Rahul (new)

Rahul Verma (rverma) ok


message 26: by Br (new)

Br | 1 comments Iain wrote: "Ian wrote: "Since the main problems of the last financial crisis are still with us, only debt levels are higher, it would a brave seer to pronounce no such crisis is coming."

Majority of economist..."


لل


message 27: by James, Group Founder (new)

James Morcan | 10550 comments Iain wrote: "Bots are improving. Multi-lingual now . . . . ...."

they're covering all bases


message 28: by WILLIAM (new)

WILLIAM George Bryant PHD | 21 comments I don't see the fascination with self driving cars and neither do i see how they will sell because most people perfer to drive their own car themselves.


message 29: by James, Group Founder (new)

James Morcan | 10550 comments WILLIAMw wrote: "I don't see the fascination with self driving cars and neither do i see how they will sell because most people perfer to drive their own car themselves."

people who don't drive could have driveless car?
people too tired to drive some days?
drunk drivers?
etc


message 30: by Derek (last edited Sep 03, 2019 07:56AM) (new)

Derek Lidow | 3 comments Thank you for this comment, William! I think about this a lot because it's another example of how people invariably look at the wrong factors when thinking about what's going to drive big economic changes.

It's not their fault. We have a whole lot of cognitive biases that cause us to pay attention only to what's right under our nose.

The antidote to this is paying attention to history to help you figure out what's going to matter most in the future (Sure, I'm a college professor...but it's the truth).

It won't be the kind of cars we drive that determine what the future looks like...it will be the new kinds of transportation networks we're building.

Since were are on Goodreads, I'm going to release my inner nerd and recommend a book that really made this clear to me.

It's called The Silk Road: A New History by Valerie Hansen. In short, it's about how, spurred on by recent economic growth, China’s President Xi Jinping announced an initiative in 2013 to open a “New Silk Road.” And it's changing everything.

From there, the author goes to all kinds of interesting places. She discusses the original path that connected the Roman Empire and the Far East...how, despite the mythic spot the Silk Road holds in our collective unconscious, few of us know exactly what it was. She talks about how there's a cultural through-line stretching all the way to back then that will determine everything about how all of us in the modern world will live our lives for the next century.

Highly recommended!

Oh, and by the way, if you're into this sort of thing, I have a list of books about Entrepreneurial History that I'd be happy to send you (or anyone else). Just email me here with the word RECOMMENDATIONS in the subject line.


message 31: by Derek (new)

Derek Lidow | 3 comments Iain,

I hear you, and I certainly think they will have an impact. I guess what I find interesting is how often the big technology of the day that the news is hyping is often the one that doesn't revolutionize the world while something else did.

That said, these are great insights.

Do you have any good book recommendations for me that might give me another point of view to consider?

Derek


message 32: by Derek (new)

Derek Lidow | 3 comments Thank you, Iain. That sounds right up my alley.


message 33: by James, Group Founder (new)

James Morcan | 10550 comments Amazon's system sounds handy, mate. But what about the handless? How will they be covered? Or will it be a case that Amazon will have so many hands on deck that someone will always be around to offer a hand?


message 34: by Lance, Group Founder (new)

Lance Morcan | 2580 comments Iain wrote: "Why did Thomas Cook go bust? Reasons airline ceased trading as bailout talks fail

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk..."


More travelers booking online direct perhaps?


message 35: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 1323 comments Iain wrote: "Planes Are Ruining the Planet. New, Mighty Airships Won’t.

https://onezero.medium.com/planes-are..."


The article on the dangers of hydrogen is badly misleading; hydrogen is flammable from 4% up somewhere in the 90% range, and explosive in many mixes in between. You may note that once a break occurs in eh skin and the hydrogen ignites, disaster. recall the Hindenburg? helium is no option - we barely have enough now fr some uses that absolutely only works with helium, and helium will leak through most envelopes and joints, admittedly you can make this slow, but once gone, it goes to space

Another minor point - when the 9/11 closed US air space, average temperatures below rose almost 2 degrees.


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