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2018 TOB - General > 2018 Shortlist Predictions (contest)

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message 51: by Lark (new)

Lark Benobi (larkbenobi) | 210 comments Amy wrote: "Hey @poingu - did you want to call out play-ins or are you betting on the final bracket?"

oh gosh play-ins are too complicated for me. I just ran down the list and picked what I thought would make good books of the ones I'd read and it ended up being 16 books, conveniently.

I'm very intrigued by Savage Theories now that I realize we have the book's translator here in our midst, though, and I just ordered it.


message 52: by Natalie (last edited Dec 21, 2017 12:24PM) (new)

Natalie | 51 comments My guesses (based largely on the fact that I always find the short list to be somewhat uninspiring, oh dear*):

1. Fever Dream
2. Lincoln in the Bardo
3. Sing, Unburied, Sing
4. Exit West
5. The Idiot
6. Kingdom Cons
7. The Ministry of Utmost Happiness
8. Void Star
9. My Favorite Thing Is Monsters
10. Smile
11. Stephen Florida
12. Idaho
13. The Seventh Function of Language
14. Augustown
15. Grief Cottage

Play-in round: A Separation vs. White Tears (Husband and Wife Face Off)

*which is not to say that I find all of these books uninspiring; if anything, I think I was too optimistic! But I definitely populated a section of my list with titles I have zero interest in reading on purpose.


message 53: by Janet (new)

Janet (justjanet) | 722 comments I'll be glad when the shortlist is announced so that I can go from being totally overwhelmed to only somewhat overwhelmed.


message 54: by Ruthiella (new)

Ruthiella | 382 comments Janet wrote: "I'll be glad when the shortlist is announced so that I can go from being totally overwhelmed to only somewhat overwhelmed."
Ha ha! Totally. And also feel regretful about the having read THAT title from the longlist when you could have read THIS title from the shortlist in December.


message 55: by Erin (last edited Dec 28, 2017 06:04AM) (new)

Erin (erinxglover) | 101 comments And the monkey throws the dart just like predicting the stock market:

-White Tears
-Sing, Unburied, Sing
-Exit West
-Ill Will
-Lincoln in the Bardo
-The Animators
-Pachinko
-Grief Cottage
-Manhattan Beach
-Idaho
-In the Distance
-Marlena
-The Idiot
-Goodbye, Vitamin
-The Lonely Hearts Hotel
-A Kind of Freedom

Play in round, whatever that means:
Books that begin with the letter "A":

-All Grown Up
-All Our Wrong Ways
-American War


message 56: by Ace (new)

Ace (aceonroam) | 0 comments Erin wrote: "And the monkey throws the dart just like predicting the stock market:

-White Tears
-Sing, Unburied, Sing
-Exit West
-Ill Will
-Lincoln in the Bardo
-The Animators
-Pachinko
-Grief Cottage
-Manhatt..."


Erin, the comp is explained on the website, but essentially the play-in is described as follows:
"Throughout the year, we gather, read, and assess the works of fiction we think would make worthy tournament competitors. In December we present our findings in the form of a "long list." We then cull it to a final shortlist of 16 or so books. (Some years we expand the list beyond the core 16 to include an extra set of two or more books that compete in a pre-tournament play-in match.)"


message 57: by Erin (new)

Erin (erinxglover) | 101 comments Ace wrote: Erin, the comp is explained on the website, but essentially the play-in is described as follows:

Thanks Ace. I just imitated what everyone else seemed to be doing. It gave me an excuse to go over the spreadsheet and find some other books that looked interesting like All Grown Up, maybe because I'm waiting to be that.



message 58: by Lagullande (new)

Lagullande | 22 comments For the last few years, I have followed the group and TOB from the UK, where often the books aren't published yet. I have read 4 of the longlist, with one in progress, and another 6 are available from the library.

So, with tongue firmly in cheek and hoping not to offend anyone, here is my "prediction" derived entirely by random generation:

1. Lincoln in the Bardo (good start, and one that I have read)
2. Ties
3. The Idiot
4. Sing Unburied Sing (seems another likely candidate)
5. Fever Dream (wow, this system is going rather well)
6. Six Four (oh dear)
7. The Night Ocean (has anyone actually read this one?)
8. Huck Out West (have seen some love for this)
9. Kingdom Cons
10. So Much Blue
11. Seven Surrenders
12. Release (available here but seems an unlikely choice)
13. Shadowbahn
14. Not Constantinople
15. Isadora
16. The One-Eyed Man

Usually I would wish you all a Merry Christmas, because that's what we say in the UK, but this year for some reason I want to say Happy Holidays!


message 59: by Ace (new)

Ace (aceonroam) | 0 comments Erin wrote: "find some other books that looked interesting like All Grown Up, maybe because I'm waiting to be that ..."

Hmm, it's one of the ones I can't at the library! I hope you enjoy what you pick. Thanks for the laughs funny girl!


message 60: by Joe Sherry (new)

Joe Sherry | 38 comments Ruthiella wrote: "Ha ha! Totally. And also feel regretful about the having read THAT title from the longlist when you could have read THIS title from the shortlist in December. "

That was my regret last year having read Barkskins before the shortlist was announced. It's always so many books to read after the shortlist that I wanted to get a jump on a 700+ page monster I was sure was going to make it. It was a new Annie Proulx novel, how could it not?

Readers, it did not.


message 61: by Ellen (new)

Ellen H | 987 comments Which is exactly why I have chosen to essentially ignore the longlist -- I have perpetually picked incorrectly in December and neglected books I might have preferred. I am ticking along with my stack of library books, the only one of which is also on the longlist is Sing, Unburied, Sing. On deck: three that didn't make it, When the English Fall, The Child Finder, and See What I Have Done. I expect to finish these by the end of the year, after which I will be girding my loins for the shortlist. Bring it on!


message 62: by Kristina (new)

Kristina (kristina3880) | 35 comments My predictions that will probably not be even close, but I am a sucker for a contest.
1. Lincoln in the Bardo
2. Fever Dream
3. The Animators
4. Stephen Florida
5. Exit West
6. Pachinko
7. In the Distance
8. Sing, Unburied, Sing
9. My Favorite Thing Is Monsters
10. Universal Harvester
11. Augustown
12 The Changeling
13. Goodbye, Vitamin
14. Isadora
15. Son of a Trickster

PLAY IN ROUND 16. WARPING TIME
White Tears
Shadowbahn
All Our Wrongs Today


message 63: by jess (new)

jess (skirtmuseum) | 172 comments 1. Lincoln in the Bardo - Man Booker
2. Sing Unburied Sing - National Book Award
3. Fever Dream - Summer TOB
4. Exit West
5. Autumn
6. Stephen Florida
7. My Favorite Thing is Monsters
8. White Tears
9. Chasing the King of Hearts
10. Grief Cottage
11. The Animators
12. The Ministry of Utmost Happiness
13. American War
14. Her Body and Other Parties
15. Ties
16. Kingdom Cons

Ugh, this is hard. This long list has so much potential. I am basically throwing darts too. I only feel confident about 1, 2, and 3.


message 64: by Amy (new)

Amy (asawatzky) | 1743 comments Lagullande wrote: "Usually I would wish you all a Merry Christmas, because that's what we say in the UK, but this year for some reason I want to say Happy Holidays! ."

:) I understand the sentiment!
as for "The Night Ocean" - I DNF it... good ideas, boring execution in my opinion.


message 65: by Amy (new)

Amy (asawatzky) | 1743 comments Reminder that last day for entries (or edits) is Sunday - Dec 31st. Looks like we have 21 entries so far (6 titles have still not been selected by anyone).
What do y'all think of having the 'losers' mail current or past TOB shortlist books to the winner that they don't already own (of their choice - no one wants Hill William, right?).


Dianah (onourpath) (fig2) | 346 comments Amy wrote: "Reminder that last day for entries (or edits) is Sunday - Dec 31st. Looks like we have 21 entries so far (6 titles have still not been selected by anyone).
What do y'all think of having the 'losers..."


Hahaha, I actually really liked Hill William and still have my copy.


message 67: by Erin (last edited Dec 28, 2017 06:25AM) (new)

Erin (erinxglover) | 101 comments Joe wrote: "Ruthiella wrote: "Ha ha! Totally. And also feel regretful about the having read THAT title from the longlist when you could have read THIS title from the shortlist in December. "

That was my regre..."


Oh but I'm finding the long list is such fun. Where else could I find a nearly pornographic book about an enchanting orphan who dances with imaginary bears and is in love with a heroin addict sexually abused by a nun? Trippy, that The Lonely Hearts Hotel. True, some others I could have done without. I mean who wants to read about their best friend disintegrating on opiates (Marlena), even if President Pumpkin Head has declared opiates are a national emergency and has allotted a whopping $1 to fight the crisis? (Must save money to fund tax cuts for the rich and nuclear weapons in case Rocket Man calls him names.) I truly know what you mean. I, too, bought Barkskins and fell asleep in my hot tub 20 pages in. It's a deadly book. The long list is dangerous. But it can be rewarding.


message 68: by Ezzy (new)

Ezzy | 34 comments Amy wrote: "What do y'all think of having the 'losers' mail current or past TOB shortlist books to the winner that they don't already own..."

What about losers mailing the winner a book of their choice? I've read a lot of the past long lists, but personally I'm more interested in the books that people (especially other readers!) feel like have been unfairly overlooked and they just have to share.


message 69: by David (new)

David | 10 comments Either idea would be great fun and a wonderful celebration of shared reading


message 70: by Beverly (new)

Beverly | 300 comments Selfishly, I picked books that I have already read and liked.

1. American War
2. Refuge
3. Augustown
4. The Changeling
5. Exit West
6. Celine
7. In the Distance
8. A Kind of Freedom
9. The Leavers
10. Pachinko
11. Sing, Unburied, Sing
12. Son of a Trickster
13. Stephen Florida
14. White Tears
15. Her Body and Other Parties

16. Play-In Round - Surreal Love Stories
Autumn
Fever Dream


message 71: by Amy (new)

Amy (asawatzky) | 1743 comments oooh! ok, i like the idea of picking books that are meaningful to us either because they were overlooked or we loved them and don't think they get enough lovin! We can use the winner's "Read" shelf to confirm they should be introduced.
wouldn't hurt to stick a note in the book about why it was selected as well!


message 72: by [deleted user] (new)

Amy wrote: "oooh! ok, i like the idea of picking books that are meaningful to us either because they were overlooked or we loved them and don't think they get enough lovin! We can use the winner's "Read" shelf..."

I'm all for Ezzy's idea and Amy's additions to it!


message 73: by Beverly (new)

Beverly | 300 comments Tina wrote: "Amy wrote: "oooh! ok, i like the idea of picking books that are meaningful to us either because they were overlooked or we loved them and don't think they get enough lovin! We can use the winner's ..."

While I like the idea in principle - but I am fuzzy on what to do so will look for others to explain to me. :)


message 74: by Natalie (new)

Natalie | 51 comments This is a charming idea, but unfortunately not something that is possible for me financially. :/


message 75: by Amy (new)

Amy (asawatzky) | 1743 comments Losers will pick ONE book each to send to the winner.


message 76: by Gaby (new)

Gaby | 34 comments Can somebody please send me the link to the summer TOB discussions. Just finished Fever Dreams and would love to hear what you all had to say about it.


message 77: by Amy (new)

Amy (asawatzky) | 1743 comments Gaby wrote: "Can somebody please send me the link to the summer TOB discussions. Just finished Fever Dreams and would love to hear what you all had to say about it."

we didn't chat much about it in the threads (there was some tourney fatigue by the third month - but HERE it is from this group. From the Morning News: https://themorningnews.org/article/th...


message 78: by Ezzy (new)

Ezzy | 34 comments My family has decided to stay at Ezzy's Free BNB for "just a few more days of the holiday season", so these decisions may have been influenced by heavy drinking:
1) Fever Dream
2) Sing, Unburied, Sing
3) Lincoln in the Bardo
4) Autumn
5) Exit West
6) Her Body and Other Parties
7) All Our Wrong Todays
8) American War
9) Goodbye Vitamin
10) Stephan Florida
11) White Tears
12) Pachinko
13) Manhattan Beach
14) The Idiot
15) Ministry of Utmost Happiness

And the play-in round on the theme of female friendship:
1) Woman Next Door
2) Conversations With Friends
3) Animators


message 79: by Anne (new)

Anne | 4 comments Here's my go...
1. Lincoln in the Bardo
2. Sing, Unburied, Sing
3. The Animators
4. The Book of Joan
5. Pachinko
6. White Tears
7. Stephen Florida
8. Fever Dream
9. Shadowbahn
10. Augustown
11. Manhattan Beach
12. Son of a Trickster
13. Huck Out West
14. The Ministry of Utmost Happiness
15. Idaho
Play in Short Stories:
The Dark Dark
Her Body and Other Parties
Homesick for Another World


message 80: by Janet (new)

Janet (justjanet) | 722 comments Has anyone mentioned a play-in round for Alzheimer's/Dementia?
1) Idaho
2) Goodbye Vitamin

Maybe there are others???


message 81: by Michelle (new)

Michelle | 155 comments Here are my guesses in no particular order
1. Sing, Unburied, Sing
2. Exit West
3. The Animators
4. My Favorite Thing is Monsters
5. American War
6. Lincoln in the Bardo
7. In the Distance
8. The Locals
9. Dear Cyborgs
10. Refuge
11. Augustown
12. Huck Out West
13. Release
14. The Seventh Function of Language
15. White Tears

Play-in Round
Translation
Fever dream
Savage Theories
Kingdom Cons


message 82: by Beth (new)

Beth Dean (readremark) | 29 comments Lincoln in the Bardo
Pachinko
Fever Dream
The Animators
Sing, Unburied, Sing
The Leavers
Manhattan Beach
Her Body and Other Parties
Exit West
The Woman Next Door
Eat Only When You’re Hungry
White Tears
Augustown
American War
Dear Cyborg

Play-in w/ no rhyme or reason:
Goodbye, Vitamin
My Favorite Thing is Monsters
Ties


message 83: by Michelle (last edited Dec 31, 2017 08:10AM) (new)

Michelle | 155 comments Amy wrote: "oooh! ok, i like the idea of picking books that are meaningful to us either because they were overlooked or we loved them and don't think they get enough lovin! We can use the winner's "Read" shelf..."

Love this idea! Think we should look at the winner's "To Read" shelf as well. I know I have some !AWESOME! books on there that I haven't had the time/money to get to and I'm sure others do as well.


message 84: by Alison (new)

Alison Hardtmann (ridgewaygirl) | 767 comments I've waited until the last minute, hoping to finish another long listed book or two. Here are my guesses:

1. Sing, Unburied, Sing
2. Exit West
3. Lincoln in the Bardo
4. The Leavers
5. Fever Dream
6. Universal Harvester
7. American War
8. Chemistry
9. My Favorite Thing is Monsters, Vol. One
10. The Animators
11. So Much Blue
12. Her Body and Other Parts
13. A Kind of Freedom
14. In the Distance
15. Book of Joan

And the play-in round is College Novels

The Idiot
Stephen Florida
The Sparsholt Affair


message 85: by Ruthiella (last edited Dec 31, 2017 12:15PM) (new)

Ruthiella | 382 comments Janet wrote: "Has anyone mentioned a play-in round for Alzheimer's/Dementia?
1) Idaho
2) Goodbye Vitamin

Maybe there are others???"


Yes we have three! The mother character in Extraordinary Adventures suffers from dementia.


message 86: by Amy (new)

Amy (asawatzky) | 1743 comments On behalf of Beth (who originally kicked off the guesses in the Longlist Thread):
Lincoln in the Bardo
Sing, Unburied, Sing
Fever Dream
Pachinko
My Favorite Thing is Monsters, Vol. 1
White Tears
The Locals
Eat Only When You're Hungry
Dear Cyborgs
The Animators
Her Body and Other Parties
Kingdom Cons
Lucky Boy
The Ministry of Utmost Happiness
Seven Surrenders

Play-in Round: Temporary People, Refuge & Exit West


message 88: by becka (new)

becka | 6 comments here are my predictions, based on a combination of books i've liked and google's random number generator:

dark at the crossing
exit west
white tears
sing, unburied, sing
the animators
augustown
idaho
fever dream
grief cottage
lincoln in the bardo
her body and other parties
kingdom cons
refuge
the leavers
pachinko

future dystopia play-in: american war, the book of joan, all our wrong todays


message 89: by Bob (new)

Bob Lopez | 530 comments Alright, as of today, I've finished 30 of 72 books. Here goes my predictions:

Sing Unburied Sing (NBA)
Lincoln In the Bardo (Booker)
Fever Dream (Summer TOB)
Pachinko
White Tears
Her Body and Other Parties
The Leavers
Augustown
Dark At the Crossing
A Kind of Freedom
Manhattan Beach
Ministry of Utmost Happiness
Universal Harvester
Autumn
Stephen Florida

Play In: Refugees/Immigrantion
Exit West
In the Distance


message 90: by Saya (new)

Saya (motheroftherevolution) | 42 comments I’m getting ready to ring in 2018 by submitting my short list guess. 😀

Here we go! My picks are as follows:

Lincoln in the Bardo
Fever Dream
Sing Unburied Sing
Augustown
The Animators
Idaho
Things That happened before the earthquake
Eat Only When You’re Hungry
Grief Cottage
Refuge
In The Distance
My Favorite Thing is Monsters
Release
Son of a Trickster
Ties

Play in:
Book of Joan
Dear Cyborgs
Death Star


message 91: by Amy (new)

Amy (asawatzky) | 1743 comments Saya wrote: "I’m getting ready to ring in 2018 by submitting my short list guess. 😀
... Death Star"


someone have a little Star Wars on the brain? :)


message 92: by Amy (new)

Amy (asawatzky) | 1743 comments ok, I'm calling it...so I can pour champagne and go to bed at 12:01.
We have 30 entries (!) with the top 19 selections (in order) of the following:
Fever Dream
Sing, Unburied, Sing
Lincoln in the Bardo
White Tears
Exit West
The Animators
American War
Pachinko
Augustown
In the Distance
Her Body and Other Parties
Dear Cyborgs
Goodbye, Vitamin
Stephen Florida
My Favorite Thing is Monsters, Vol. 1
The Book of Joan
Autumn
Idaho
Manhattan Beach

we'll see how the group think managed on Jan 3rd (Wednesday) when the shortlist is released!


message 93: by Jan (new)

Jan (janrowell) | 1268 comments Thanks for all your work on this, Amy!!


message 94: by Saya (new)

Saya (motheroftherevolution) | 42 comments Amy wrote: "Saya wrote: "I’m getting ready to ring in 2018 by submitting my short list guess. 😀
... Death Star"

someone have a little Star Wars on the brain? :)"


Can’t believe I did that! Meant to type Void Star. Best part about the error is I’ve never seen Star Wars. Haha!

Thank you for putting this together, Amy! Can’t wait for the short list and to see how we all do with our picks.


message 95: by C (new)

C | 799 comments Saya wrote: "Amy wrote: "Saya wrote: "I’m getting ready to ring in 2018 by submitting my short list guess. 😀
... Death Star"

someone have a little Star Wars on the brain? :)"

Can’t believe I did that! Meant t..."


Wow, I thought I was the last person to see Star Wars! I watched the original three for the first time this year. :D Thanks Amy for taking time out of reading to figure out this contest.


message 96: by Jason (last edited Jan 03, 2018 11:22AM) (new)

Jason Perdue | 688 comments Well, my strategy of no short stories seems to have worked. But changing my original picks backfired spectacularly. That boneheaded move took me from 12 to 11 with two of them play-in picks that aren't actually play-ins. 10 pts?


message 97: by Amy (last edited Jan 03, 2018 11:04AM) (new)

Amy (asawatzky) | 1743 comments wow! I'm glad we decided how we were scoring this thing in advance because there are three ways that three different people could have won this!
Jason & Ezzy both guessed 11 books correctly but Alison guessed 2 correct play-in books for the win!

If we did total books right first, then by scoring Ezzy would have won with 10.5pts - Jason has 10. If we went by my guesses at seeding weights Jason would have killed it due to his End of Eddy , Stephen Florida & other low recognition picks.
An additional 5 people guessed 10 correct books!


message 98: by Amy (last edited Jan 03, 2018 11:07AM) (new)

Amy (asawatzky) | 1743 comments also, for bragging rights, Beth was the only person to correctly guess Lucky Boy


message 99: by Saya (new)

Saya (motheroftherevolution) | 42 comments Congrats Alison! Nicely done. :)


message 100: by Ruthiella (last edited Jan 03, 2018 11:41AM) (new)

Ruthiella | 382 comments Yes! Congratulations to Alison. Also props to Jason, Ezzy and Beth as well.

So how do those who want to participate send Alison her prize(s)?


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