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OT - Hurricane Nate

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message 1: by Theodore (new)

Theodore Cohen (theodorejeromecohen) | 1417 comments Latest 12z GFS deepens our Caribbean low for this weekend as it moves north. Kinda trending with overnight EURO. Shear may relax enough to allow Nate to form as our upper low moves west. Would start to pay attention central Gulf to Florida. Will be watching 2pm NHC update and 2pm EURO run. www.spaghettimodels.com / Mikes Weather Page APP


message 2: by Theodore (new)

Theodore Cohen (theodorejeromecohen) | 1417 comments Tropical Depression #16. Could be a Hurricane nearing the US this weekend in the Gulf. Intensity might be conservative. Watch the bend NE. Could put more west Florida in play. Heaviest action to the east of the storm. www.spaghettimodels.com / Mikes Weather Page APP


message 3: by R.L. (new)

R.L. Jackson (authorrljackson) | 856 comments Mod
We had a lot of tropical storm like rain yesterday. Geez I hope another doesn’t come.


message 4: by Theodore (new)

Theodore Cohen (theodorejeromecohen) | 1417 comments R.L. wrote: "We had a lot of tropical storm like rain yesterday. Geez I hope another doesn’t come."

Yes, we hope!!! Water still very warm in the western Gulf.


message 5: by Theodore (last edited Oct 05, 2017 07:39AM) (new)

Theodore Cohen (theodorejeromecohen) | 1417 comments Now TS Nate. West shift overnight... enough to start to believe... now including EURO. Overnight emsembles shown here from weathernerds.org and the latest spaghetti models. Looks like this Bahama energy will indeed open the door for Nate to head more westward into the Gulf. GFS has been consistent on that area being strong enough to influence. Conditions will be favorable for development in the Gulf but time will be the biggest hurdle. Systems need time to get going and this ...
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Talking Nate... and overnight track shifts to the west. Timing this weekend for upper Gulf. www.spaghettimodels.com / Mikes Weather Page APP


message 6: by Theodore (new)

Theodore Cohen (theodorejeromecohen) | 1417 comments 11am NHC track update. Hurricane by the weekend still in forecast for the upper Gulf coast. Intensity biggest question... some models showing more... some less. Lots to watch for the central Gulf coast to Florida panhandle the next couple days. Yucatan has TS warnings/Hurricane watches up. Will be watching if it splits the gap and how much land interaction. www.spaghettimodels.com / Mikes Weather Page APP


message 7: by Theodore (new)

Theodore Cohen (theodorejeromecohen) | 1417 comments 11am NHC track update. Intensifying... now at 90mph... moving at 26mph. Expected to be a Cat2 with at least 105mph at landfall. Heaviest action to the east of center. Cone is tight so track is fairly confident. Surge and winds are biggest threats. www.spaghettimodels.com / Mikes Weather Page APP


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