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Wealth & Economics > Business: gamble, planning or execution?

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message 1: by Nik (new)

Nik Krasno | 13485 comments Normally business starts from a business plan. As anything forward-looking it contains contingencies, assumptions, tendencies, unknowns, permissible deviations, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, projections, etc..
Hence clearly business entails risk. Seeking seed money and further investment an entrepreneur is selling a 'dream' and attempts to realize it..
Writing as biz is even more riskier than most other businesses -:)
Entirely risk-averted folks will rarely become businessmen.. Very pragmatic people rarely become businessmen. Don't know about writers -:)
The real beauty is to tackle negative contingencies as they come and to see through your plan (or its variation) happening despite the obstacles and usually there are many...
Luck, hard work, resilience, all come handy..

But what do you think: is luck a prerequisite or any risk can be mitigated?


message 2: by Michael (new)

Michael Fattorosi | 477 comments Business: gamble, planning or execution?

All 3...


message 3: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 9505 comments I started my own company in 1986, to service some other ones I was involved with. Planning is necessary, and obviously execution is also important, but luck does play a serious part. For example, a company I was helping with a process to make chemicals from microalgae was making really promising progress but needed to refinance by mid 2008. Had they seen Lehmans coming, they could have refinanced big in time, but they did not, and I don't think you could have seen that. [If I had, I would be rich from short selling :-)] The ventures in the 1980s fell over with the 1988 crash, and one or two other quite unforeseeable events. You can mitigate against a lot of risk, but not that which you cannot see coming and it is big.


message 4: by Nik (last edited Dec 27, 2017 03:47AM) (new)

Nik Krasno | 13485 comments Bitcoin rush and sometimes stock trading reminds me gamble, some of Musk's stuff stems from ambitious planning, in some cases execution is the key. What's most important: the dream/idea, the bet/willingness to assume risk, the realization?


message 5: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan | 7229 comments All of the above. A key element is reducing risk to ensure success.


message 6: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 9505 comments You have to minimize risk, have a great idea, and execute it well. Then you need cooperation from others on the way, you need access to the resources to defend against competition, and you need luck. The cooperation and the luck are outside your control, but with luck, sometimes you can overcome some bad luck by being persistent.


message 7: by Alex (last edited Dec 27, 2017 09:50AM) (new)

Alex (asato) There’s an interesting book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (which I read a while ago and admittedly didn’t quite understand in detail) that basically—and I'm almost certainly oversimplifying here; any mathematicians in the house?— states that in a complex system , which is what our global clima-socioeconomic system is, huge outlier events will occur with increasing frequency.


message 8: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 9505 comments Alex, I think it is like the Bell curve (or the Gaussian or Maxwell distributions) in Cartesiajn coordinates. If you raise the amplitude (say on the y axis) by having more stuff there, you raise the value of y for any value of x.


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