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Forget the Noise: A Common Sense Approach to Investing
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Wealth & Economics > Who cares when the next recession comes

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message 1: by Geoff (new)

Geoff Noble (geoffnoble) | 7 comments When is the next recession going to hit? Who cares. This is a great Bloomberg article by Barry Ritholtz.

"You have to hand it to economists -- they say the darndest things.

In a Wall Street Journal survey, a group of economists “put the odds of the next downturn happening within the next four years at nearly 60 percent.” Oh no.

Today, we will make another entry in the catalog of how worthless predictions tend to be, and more specifically why economists’ long-term forecasts are so uniquely useless."

http://bloom.bg/2en17ey


message 2: by Nik (new)

Nik Krasno | 14876 comments Agree. Out of thousands (millions?) of macro-, micro-, nano- and other economists, what maybe 1 or 2 have reference of predicting something adverse about 2007? And they have analytic department in every bank.
Looks like long-term economic prognosis is hardly more precise than predicting the future in general....


message 3: by Alex (new)

Alex (asato) Worse than predicting when it will rain.


message 4: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 10662 comments My guess is most economists have their theories about how the economy works, and they very very seldom question the premises. That was the problem with 2008 - The US housing market could never collapse, and if there were some minor problems, the spread through derivatives would smooth it all out. And economists are not the only ones who seldom question their premises.


message 5: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan In my experience, predicting the future is much harder than predicting the past, and I'm not even sure about the past...


message 6: by Nik (new)

Nik Krasno | 14876 comments -:) How's your grip with the present? -:)


message 7: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 10662 comments Nik wrote: "-:) How's your grip with the present? -:)"

My guess is the present is really difficult because there are so many lies floating around.


message 8: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan In my book we haven't had a real economy worth the name since before the 1970s.

What the developed world has done is gorge on debt for at least 45 years, producing an illusion of wealth by consuming the promise of future production.

Well the future is now.

“Sooner or later we all sit down to a banquet of consequences”


message 9: by GR (new)

GR Oliver | 479 comments More Gloom and Doom: I read last year when the financial melt down will occur. This comes from (not sure don't quote me here) the Harvard School of Finance. The melt down will occur in 2030, and go worldwide--the world will go bust.

Also what's interesting, the next great flood is predicted by 2033 according the Geological Survey, and that is from the rate of glacial meltdown global-wide. Don't quote me here, it's just what I remember reading a year or two back.

The decade 2030 will be Armageddon according to the Gloom & Doom people, and it looks like DT is kick-starting the momentum.

I'll be dead by that time, so Good Luck all.


message 10: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 10662 comments GR wrote: "More Gloom and Doom: I read last year when the financial melt down will occur. This comes from (not sure don't quote me here) the Harvard School of Finance. The melt down will occur in 2030, and go..."

Great Prediction about the timing of a financial meltdown. That is the very year my novel "Puppeteer" is set in, it also predicted a huge flood, at least in the Netherlands, AND I published that about 5 years ago so I can't be accused of plagiarism. Except that in the novel, at the last moment the worst disaster is averted.


message 11: by GR (new)

GR Oliver | 479 comments I just wrote a story, it's in its final stages. The story is a modern version of Rip van Wrinkle, and is set in the future 2030s. It's about a dysfunctional man who can't seem to get along with his colleagues. He takes off and gets lost during the great flood. He ends up in a volcanic cauldron he calls the Ark, and becomes friends with a petrified man. After 20 years he is found and returns to civilization and finds it completely changed. It's a look at what will happen to our present situation.

Anybody want to read, I'll send it to you for review.


message 12: by Nik (new)

Nik Krasno | 14876 comments What if you, Ian and GR, are right along with Harvard and geological dudes?
I guess we need to hurry and cram the remaining 14-17 years with things that matter and hopefully - fun -:)


message 13: by Nik (new)

Nik Krasno | 14876 comments What if you, Ian and GR, are right along with Harvard and geological dudes?
I guess we need to hurry and cram the remaining 14-17 years with things that matter and hopefully - fun -:)


message 14: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 10662 comments To be fair, Nik, my 2030 disaster was just averted, which, of course, permits me to have another go in about 2040, and this time everyone is not so lucky. 'Bot War starts off with a very rich fund manager who realises he can make so much more if he shorts companies that are about to have disasters, so he gives a bunch of terrorists some stolen robotic war machines.

This is scheduled for publication on December 2, preorders are very welcome, and anyone who promises to post review in a small number of places can have a free copy. Please do not ask for it next week, because I expect to be in hospital (hip).


message 15: by Nik (new)

Nik Krasno | 14876 comments Interesting scenario. Good luck with the launch!
Hope everything goes well in the hospital and you check out soon and fit!


message 16: by GR (new)

GR Oliver | 479 comments Good luck, Ian.


message 17: by Ian (new)

Ian Miller | 10662 comments Thanks for the good wishes, Nik & GR


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