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Climate Change > Climate Change Acceleration Breaking the Scales

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message 1: by Brian (new)

Brian Burt | 426 comments Mod
This article about 2015's record El Nino literally sending global warming off the scale for many atmospheric science measurements is sobering. Well, actually, it makes me feel like drinking heavily. :-(

The Most Intense El Niño Ever Observed Is Already a Worldwide Disaster

message 2: by Carl (last edited Nov 23, 2015 01:30AM) (new)

Carl Grip (carlgrip) | 2 comments Wow, that is quite depressing... Here in Sweden most people still seem to believe we can save the climate by taking the bus, and switching to low-energy light bulbs. One feels so helpless.

message 3: by Brian (new)

Brian Burt | 426 comments Mod
Sometimes seeing is believing, eh? Share this article link with your hardcore skeptic friends. The correlation based on NASA data is incredibly visual, compelling, and hard to deny!

Bloomberg Business - What's Really Warming the World?

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message 4: by Jimmy (new)

Jimmy | 1577 comments Mod
It is truly an existential threat.

message 5: by Clare (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod

NASA's look at El Nino.

message 6: by Clare (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod
We're now told:
2015 was the warmest year on record worldwide.
15 of the last 16 years have been the hottest year recorded.
1% of the world owns as much as the other 99%.
Plenty needs changing.

message 7: by Clare (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod

This takes you to an article on about how many people can keep a conspiracy secret for how long - climate change is one studied.

message 8: by Robert (new)

Robert Zwilling | 2001 comments It would be interesting to plug the VW numbers into the conspiracy formula to see how many people knew about it.

If the number of VW employees and non VW emission testers who were lazy enough to accept their fraudulent data results was small enough to give the VW conspiracy a long life, than it comes down to a handful of dedicated emission testers who refused to accept corporate claptrap because it was coming from a supposedly responsible source.

message 9: by Clare (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod
Good conspiracy to study! It might make or break the results of the scientist's research.

message 10: by Clare (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod

The young people have won the first step in court against the US government and fossil fuel industry.

message 11: by Jimmy (new)

Jimmy | 1577 comments Mod
The latest UN science report is quite alarming:

Here is the opening paragraph:

INCHEON, South Korea — A landmark report from the United Nations’ scientific panel on climate change paints a far more dire picture of the immediate consequences of climate change than previously thought and says that avoiding the damage requires transforming the world economy at a speed and scale that has “no documented historic precedent.”

message 12: by Robert (new)

Robert Zwilling | 2001 comments People don't need to be told things are changing anymore, they can see it. Nor will people believe the stories that nothing needs to be done once they have experienced the new weather.

The new weather is described as being of epic proportions which implies it won't be seen again for a long time. This is deliberate misinformation which is based on the idea that whatever happened, it won't be happening again for a long time. The correct term is global proportions, such as instead of thinking of a lake, think of an ocean. Global also has no time limits imposed on it.

There is growing international population of people whose lives have been disrupted by the weather and have not been restored back to normal. It is happening in the US but the news seems content to not report it, perhaps because it isn't good news for anyone or any purpose. Who knows why. But it can't be hidden as it keeps on spreading.

Even now another storm is approaching North Carolina from the exact opposite direction that Florence took as it crossed the state.

message 13: by Clare (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod
We're being told bluntly that there are only twelve years left to turn around the global dependence on fossil fuels. Or the climate is irrevocably shifted into something we really won't like or cope with well.

message 14: by Robert (new)

Robert Zwilling | 2001 comments The reported time to do something keeps getting shorter. Climate wise 12 years might be beyond our scope of things.

message 15: by Clare (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod
Geoengineering is being touted again; it is mentioned in the latest IPCC report. Nobody knows if spraying sulphur aerosols into the atmosphere from a plane is safe or workable. This might buy us time while we transition to safer fuel sources, but dimming the sun might reduce the effectiveness of solar panels.

message 16: by Robert (new)

Robert Zwilling | 2001 comments In the 1980s it was discovered that solar cell output had declined 10 percent over the previous 3 decades due to global dimming. It was also discovered that water evaporation tables composed of data taken from farmers reports over a similar time span also showed a lowering rate of evaporation. This showed a cooling effect while the planet was overall increasing it's average temperature.

Initially dismissed, it was later confirmed that it had been happening, most likely caused by aerosols in the air. By the 1990s the effect was reversed as efforts to stop industrial aerosol pollutants started to take effect.

There are water based bacteria that generate sulfur which makes its way into the clouds and helps to form clouds. It does this without making any acid rain. There is a way to do it and a way not to do it. I don't think we know the difference yet.

Before we start putting sulfur into the air we might want to make sure it is not going to cause more acid rain, a phenomena that increased during the period of global dimming from industrial aerosols from the 1950s to the 1980s.

Nitrogen and other materials besides sulfur also make acid rain, all of which was decreased in atmospheric release by the clean air act of 1990. This was only in one country but the concerns of most industrial operations around the world took note of what was happening, although acid rain is still an on going problem, mainly from coal and wood fires. It was something that could not be ignored after it reached a certain stage.

President Trump has now said that something is happening with the weather simply because it can no longer be ignored. Globally the atmosphere is wetter and hotter. The problem this time is that the glaciers around the world have already partially melted and that genie can't be put back into the bottle anytime soon. The satellite views of the ice packs over the last few decades only showed the surface ice expansion and retraction, it never showed the change of the ice depth which is melting from the bottom up. A classic case of judging a book by its cover.

message 17: by Clare (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod
Also in the 1980s we had Mount St Helens.

message 18: by Clare (last edited Oct 24, 2018 11:44AM) (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod
Apparently fiction has been giving us allegorical monsters and dangers which represent climate change. I have not seen any of the films / series named and I have been told that Game of Thrones has a plague of zombies and undead to represent the struggle against climate change.

I have a personal theory that after The Day After Tomorrow, film studios suddenly found no funding for films about climate change caused by humans. Nor, indeed, was there much support for science related films. Hence all the superheroes, fighting evildoers in cities with talents only a superhero could possess.

A recent film about catastrophic weather, Geostorm, was about villains taking over weather control satellites. Funny, we might say that is happening now, only of course we don't have such satellites.
Anyway here is what Gizmodo makes of the situation of monsters representing climate change.

message 19: by Clare (last edited Oct 25, 2018 03:19AM) (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod
According to Inside Climate News, some USA farming bodies have been doing their best to suppress climate change issues although their farmers are suffering. I am not sure why that would be, and I don't know enough to comment.
Here is an article and a nice infograpic.

message 20: by Jimmy (new)

Jimmy | 1577 comments Mod
Clare wrote: "Accoding to Inside Climate News, some USA farming bodies have been doing their best to suppress climate change issues although their farmers are suffering. I am not sure why that would be, and I do..."

Key phrases:

Connections to the fossil fuel industry.

A hatred of regulations.

The absurdity of "conservatism." What irony there.

The crop insurance program.

Large, corporate farms.

Following the political model of the NRA.

message 21: by Robert (new)

Robert Zwilling | 2001 comments I'm sure farmers trust their eyes over the writings of people who aren't looking at a torn up field that is no longer producing anything because a storm stopped by for a wellness check of the land. It's one thing when you can't personally verify information but anyone who has seen what is happening is no longer putting any faith in paid to order talking heads that make no sense.

message 22: by Robert (new)

Robert Zwilling | 2001 comments Wacky weather patterns present serious challenges for Delaware’s farmers

message 23: by Clare (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod
Thanks, I love the pumpkins!

message 24: by Clare (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod

"A new volunteer organization aims to change that by naming and shaming reporters who fail to bring up climate change and praising those that do. Long-term, the group’s plan is to give journalism students a crash course in climate change so that they’re prepared to talk about a problem and its solutions that touch every aspect of our planet."

message 25: by Clare (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod
The Weather Channel makes some fantastic immersive videos.
I saw one of these about flooding on the streets. This featured item is wildfires. The article says they take 3 -4 weeks to make.

message 26: by Clare (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod
Finally the desperate nature of the situation has drawn people who don't normally bother with climate issues to the table. These are the more extreme engineering aspects which are not known quantities in how they will affect the planet.

Personally I'm going with flooding deserts, provided the pumping is done by renewable power. I've already put a salt sea in the Australian interior into my SF books.

message 27: by Robert (new)

Robert Zwilling | 2001 comments One thing for certain is that there is going to be plenty of water and more rain every year for some time to come. The weather is on it's schedule from here on it.

message 28: by Clare (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod
This art installation of lights shows us what cities would be like if they flooded - from the point of view of being under the waves.

"I make things because I look outside my window and I don't understand the world anymore," Roosegaarde said. "The CO2, the traffic jams, the rising water ... Waiting for government or politicians is not going to help. I try to make things to show you it can be done."

message 29: by Clare (last edited Nov 18, 2018 01:57AM) (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod
The Atacama desert, the driest place on earth for millions of years, has flooded during 2015 and 2017.

message 30: by Robert (new)

Robert Zwilling | 2001 comments New micro life is already showing up in Antarctica so the empty space won't last long in the Atacama desert. Question is will it continue to rain on a more regular basis. The glaciers in South America have been taking a beating, they are a valuable source of water. Perhaps the new rainfall will replace the lost glacier water.

message 31: by Clare (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod
This one is about no sea ice yet off Barrow or Utqiaġvik Alaska. It's just starting to form.
Interesting comments on fracking methods there and the local treatment of the environment.
Barrow was where this happened.
Big Miracle
Big Miracle by Tom Rose

message 32: by Clare (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod
The NYT brings us another photoessay - on Yellowstone. Not as much text as in the earlier climate change articles.

message 33: by Darius (new)

Darius Murretti | 5 comments I devoured Unstoppable: Harnessing Science to Change the World. My review is here:
the comment section drew more links to debates on climate change particularly an Oxford University debate on youtube the commenter left the links in the comments section of the review

I am listening to the book a SECOND time NOW and really picking up on the facts and Nye's approach of giving hope and cheer as well as the grim staggering facts .
Climate Change Debate | Rob Paver | Proposition (1/8)
Climate Change Debate | Chris Garner | Opposition (2/8)
Climate Change Debate | Barry Gardiner MP | Proposition (3/8)
Climate Change Debate | Secretary Ernest Moniz | Opposition (4/8)
Climate Change Debate | Angela Smith MP | Proposition (5/8)
Climate Change Debate | President Mohamed Nasheed | Opposition (6/8)
Climate Change Debate | Sir David King | Proposition (7/8)
Climate Change Debate | Natalie Bennett | Opposition (8/8)

message 34: by Clare (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod
Thanks, Darius.

message 35: by Clare (last edited Nov 26, 2018 11:59AM) (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod
Another good photoessay; this shows the world's highest glaciers including on Everest, are receding and thinning. High altitude lakes have appeared. Thanks to the Nepali Times for the work.

message 36: by Clare (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod
This is a fine considered short article from an Irish dairy farmer correspondent.
As he says, Ireland's grass-fed dairy is among the lowest carbon cost dairy in the world, so if we made less dairy, it would be made elsewhere at greater carbon cost.

message 37: by Robert (new)

Robert Zwilling | 2001 comments Local product is becoming more valuable simply because it's easy to know it's a quality product.

The thing with 8 billion people in wildly different economic situations is that while everyone needs the right equipment and the right knowledge to do what they need to do to have minimal impact, a fair distribution system is non existent. We are still pretending everything can be run by game theory which has no use for future actions once the game is superficially won.

When we are talking about food there are a large number of people who can't wait to get the right stuff or can't afford it or don't know there are different ways to do the same thing. They need help and are glad to get it providing it is made with terms that are more than fair for the situation they are in.

The thing about food is that if it is produced too cheaply thereby limiting production people are going to starve. The food industry can't be run like some kind of luxury item where it's existence or lack of only affects peoples social standing.

As for big money operations that cut costs solely for the sake of increased profit, their too big to work with minimal impact operations will probably have their procedures changed by the changing weather.

Someday I would like to see a chart comparing all the fallout (not just one particular substance, and including windshield wiper fluid, tire shreds, etc.) from SUVs being driven for all non commercial purposes vs cows.

message 38: by Clare (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod
Australian youth protest climate inaction.

message 39: by Jimmy (new)

Jimmy | 1577 comments Mod
from today's WAPO:

Between 2014 and 2016, emissions remained largely flat. But that trend didn’t last. In 2017, global emissions grew 1.6 percent. The rise in 2018 could end up being twice that amount.

As nations wrestle with how to change course at climate talks in Poland, the message of Wednesday’s report was unambiguous: When it comes to promises to begin cutting the greenhouse gas emissions that fuel climate change, the world remains well off target.

message 40: by Robert (new)

Robert Zwilling | 2001 comments The decreases came from multiple sources including from switching from coal or oil to natural gas for electric power generation. New power plants could use natural gas but peat, shale, coal, and oil powered plants could still be built.

Power use shows no signs of even remotely slowing down through 2050, estimates range from 25 percent to 100 percent increases.

It is projected that alternative energy will be the largest source of energy by 2050 with the largest producers being China and India. That could still be only 50 percent of all the power being generated.

It could still end up that the same amounts of oil being used now will be the same as in 2050 even with a 50 percent decrease in oil generated power of the total amount of energy generated.

Greenhouse gasses come from manufacturing, industrial, agricultural activities besides power generation.
Existing industries or new industries are switching over to natural gas, once considered to be a green solution, on a large scale, which has it's own emission problems. Qatar is resigning from Opec because they consider their natural gas business to be more profitable than their oil business.

Winters with periods of warm spells interspaced with the cold weather caused less oil to be burned for heat. This trend will continue though maybe not on a regular basis.

Europe's big decline parallels a persistent decline in industrial development.
US GDP decreased overall from its 1998 peak, which parallels its shifting and use of industrial operations to foreign countries. Its manufacturing output increased slower than places like China, Mexico, South Korea but greater than Europe. India suffered a good decline prior to 2013 but has been increasing through 2016.
The global economy is poised for another slowdown which will lower the greenhouse gas emissions which can mask any signs of real progress.

Elon Musk has plans to launch 11,000 satellites in the near future, perhaps some of them can be used to accurately measure greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere instead of relying on industry supplied data which can be based on best guesses.

message 41: by Clare (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod
Natural gas is a cleaner fuel which is why China with its city smog problems needs to switch.

message 42: by Clare (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod
Europe's black truffles and white truffles are sensitive to climate issues - like any fungi they need moisture. I can't bring myself to be concerned about epicurean dinner tables, but threats to these fungi reveal a biodiversity crash.
If you have an epicurean table, do not be distraught, plans are afoot to culture the tubers just for you.

message 43: by James (new)

James Kraus | 161 comments There is a sleeping giant in the human caused global warming debate, a giant that pays a lot of the bills for climate change damage & destruction, especially the bills they cannot weasel out of, & this giant is/are the American Insurance Companies. Perhaps they need some encouragement to speak their mind. And perhaps this might make a good discussion topic in our group?
Jim Kraus

message 44: by Clare (last edited Dec 22, 2018 01:59AM) (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod
We refer to insurance at times in the threads on flooding and wildfires. Climate change could easily put some of them out of business.

Insurers have of course been looking at the issue.
Dull Disasters?: How planning ahead will make a difference
Dull Disasters? How planning ahead will make a difference by Daniel J. Clarke

message 45: by James (new)

James Kraus | 161 comments The debate over: is Climate Change human or natural cause, as you know continues in the US. Exxon knew it was human caused in the late 1970s with their own research.

I just think that a private enterprise like insurance
companies that will have their bottom line threatened by human caused global warming NEED to stand up for their concern for their own profits & challenge a company like Exxon, that has made huge profits for the last 40 years off of their denial campaign.

I think,it is better for corporations to challenge each other, & get involve & stop letting the environmentalists do all of the dirty work of challenging a huge rich corporation like Exxon. It is simple not fair for the insurance companies to remain a silent giant when they have so much to lose.

This would also help the private business people to share the responsibility to prove that we are dealing with a huge monster that will destroy businesses, farming, homes, people’s lives, & on & on,
And in the US truth is still being suppressed,

Exxon has not payed a penalty & is enjoying huge profits with new wells, building pipelines, etc,
& we continue building big cars & trucks, & the insurance companies are paying bigger bills for these results & say nothing.

Wake up, guys!

Let’s get the problem on the table, admit the truth & get on with the solution that should have started 40 years ago., when Exxon Knew.

Read Exxon Knew by Shannon Hall in the Scientific American magazine article. It’s all there.

message 46: by Clare (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod
There are two ways for companies to fight the oil firms.
One is legal tactics as you say.
The other is to lead by example and go counter to the oil industry.

The latter is what firms like Tesla, Apple and Google have been doing; using clean energy, providing alternatives affordably.

If I were writing a conspiracy theory short story right now, it might go along the lines of, charismatic leader of tech firm threatens oil giants so much that he is warned behind the scenes. He needs to visibly make an ass of himself and get pulled from the board - leaving proxies to make sure all goes as he wants - or he'll be so much of a threat, he'll be killed. Of course, that would never happen in real life.

message 47: by James (new)

James Kraus | 161 comments Sounds like a great story & I hope you will write it? Your main character sounds interesting, sort of reminding me of a person in the US who wears make up & has vivid blond hair combed in a strange way?

message 48: by Clare (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod
Could perhaps fit various personalities, if we went looking for comparisons. Or else it hasn't happened yet. Who knows?

message 49: by James (new)

James Kraus | 161 comments Yes, of course.

message 50: by Clare (new)

Clare O'Beara | 6049 comments Mod
Apparently major geoengineering or atmosphere changing to reduce the global warming crisis has now started to slip into mainstream.

Several options are covered in Naomi Klein's book.
This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. The Climate
This Changes Everything Capitalism vs. The Climate by Naomi Klein

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