The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable The Black Swan question


200 views
Is any of the readers applying anything from the book to decision making in their lives ? With what impact ?
Lalit Mohan Lalit Jun 25, 2013 01:17PM
Investing ,or personal life etc.



I have absolutely adopted the strategy of not following the news on a minute-by-minute, or even day-by-day basis, but getting only "mature" news at a less frequent (e.g., weekly) basis. I have not felt "out of the loop" on "in the dark" at all, PLUS I have the benefit of all the extra time saved!

17436008
Lalit Mohan How has that impacted results from decision making ? Although I do see the advantage of overcoming our check-feeds-ocd.
Jun 26, 2013 12:03PM
24889879
Frank Sherosky I apply the philosophy to my trading. it confirms that I do not know and cannot know everything.
Nov 01, 2013 05:01PM

Ed (last edited May 04, 2016 02:38PM ) May 04, 2016 02:37PM   1 vote
it helps in how to better find and understand non-deterministic events in every day life. helps how to determine if particular events are random or not.
i can't explain in details because my english skills are limited.
things like, how to perform your own empirical experiments to see if big enough number of samples were used to tell that proof is not random picked.

for example with electronics and warranty. because producers must provide replacements for every faulty device that breaks within warranty time period and this even if users will treat their devices incorrectly. then, if you have better than average knowledge about how to handle that type of device, chances that it wont break after warranty period end is increased.

its hard to give examples in text because it requires non-deterministic approach and instead, human mind is deterministic. most of language and ways of communicating also is like that. only using scientific tools, like math and statistics, can suppress deterministic thinking here.


I've stopped riding elevators since reading this book, and now take the stairs.

Clearly I haven't died in any elevator accidents, so I'd say it's been a successful change of habit.


Exactly the question I'm stuck with after reading this book. I'd love to apply this in real life, but I find it hard to take such an abstract notion to a practical level.
What I am already doing (more accurately: trying to do) is to be mindful of stories presented as facts. But to be honest the bookFramespotting: Changing How You Look At Things Changes How You See Them was way more helpful in that. (a highly recommended book btw!)
I run an organisation that organizes events so I tried to increase the exposure to positive black swans (viral social media posts in our region) by diversifying our social media posts and increasing the amount of them. downside is minimal (people unliking our page because we spam too much) and the upside is that every post has the potential to appeal and get more clicks than the previous 100 messages.


I think the concepts in this book have helped protect me from my own overconfidence. I now walk around with a "what if" mentality that I used to chalk up to pessimism. Although now I don't just look for the worst case, I also ponder best case scenarios.

Oddly enough, one of the things I walked away with is the idea of always having a book with me. I hate wasting time, but I recognize that people are late and accidents happen so they best way I can benifet from even those "bad" things is to have a book with me that will grow my mind which is a good thing!


back to top