Michael's Reviews > The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't

The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver
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Jan 12, 2013

really liked it

Definitely worth a read to get a sense of the art and science of forecasting from the mind of Nate Silver, the Election forecaster behind the 538 blog.

The book starts a bit slow, but picked up for me when he dug into sports betting, political punditry, poker, chess simulators. The quality of the chapters is a bit uneven where some are gripping while others are a bit of a slog. At 440+ pages, it required some strength of will to get through it, but happily, I just did. It's not overly quantitative, and the writing is good if not gripping.

You come out of the book with a better understanding of Bayesian probability, and forecasting in it's many incarnations. The stuff on weather, earthquakes, and climate change were interesting as well, but the book lacked an overarching structure that tied the different areas together more coherently.

For folks who like Nate Silver (or #drunknatesilver for that matter) add a star as I feel like I know the guy better having read this.
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