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Narilka's Reviews > Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
by
Annie Duke offers up the idea that life is more like poker than chess. You can play the perfect hand, make all the right decisions and still get unlucky. Given the presence of uncertainty in every decision we make, even those decisions we feel fairly certain about, it's time to recognize that every decision is basically a bet and how thinking in this manner can give us a better process to make great decisions.
What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge. That state of knowledge, in turn, is some variation of "I'm not sure."
Duke uses the idea to lay out a framework to help us make better decisions on a daily basis. Ideas covered include: Understanding the concept "resulting" and how to decouple that from the decisions we make; how we form beliefs; the innate biases in our current decision making process based off our beliefs; how to adopt new habits in our decision making process; and how to be more truth seeking instead of just confirming our biases. Duke outlines these ideas in an easy to understand manner and uses examples from her own career as a professional poker player often.
I found this book thought provoking and plan to try out a few of her examples. It's also a case where I wish I had a print copy of the book instead of the audio so I could make notes more easily. I think I also need to add Predictably Irrational to my TBR.
by
Annie Duke offers up the idea that life is more like poker than chess. You can play the perfect hand, make all the right decisions and still get unlucky. Given the presence of uncertainty in every decision we make, even those decisions we feel fairly certain about, it's time to recognize that every decision is basically a bet and how thinking in this manner can give us a better process to make great decisions.
What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge. That state of knowledge, in turn, is some variation of "I'm not sure."
Duke uses the idea to lay out a framework to help us make better decisions on a daily basis. Ideas covered include: Understanding the concept "resulting" and how to decouple that from the decisions we make; how we form beliefs; the innate biases in our current decision making process based off our beliefs; how to adopt new habits in our decision making process; and how to be more truth seeking instead of just confirming our biases. Duke outlines these ideas in an easy to understand manner and uses examples from her own career as a professional poker player often.
I found this book thought provoking and plan to try out a few of her examples. It's also a case where I wish I had a print copy of the book instead of the audio so I could make notes more easily. I think I also need to add Predictably Irrational to my TBR.
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Quotes Narilka Liked
“In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather, we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing.”
― Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
― Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
