Marc Sims's Reviews > Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Really helpful. Main points:
- You should speak less dogmatically when you don’t know all the facts
- You rarely know all the facts
- Don’t confuse a good decision that led to poor results with a bad decision. Sometimes you just get unlucky.
- Confirmation bias predisposes you to interpret data in unreliable ways and the more intelligent you are the worse that problem is.
- Don’t make decisions based on immediate gratification—redefine happiness in light of a lifetime goal rather than the immediate.
- Have a community of people to help keep you from making impulsive decisions.
- Before you make a decision, ask yourself how you will feel in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years if you made it.

Lots of practically helpful things in here. Replace “luck” with God’s providence, and you’re good to go. The main premise is that all of life is similar to betting. In a bet you are forced to make a decision on an uncertain outcome with monetary consequences. Start to view all your decisions in life in this way and it makes you more cautious and contemplative.