Leo Walsh's Reviews > Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

I've read dozens upon dozens of pop-science books on contemporary cognitive science. In fact, as I get older, I find cognitive sciences and how we humans work "in the world" more important science reading than the physics that captivated me when younger. And nearly all cover, at least in part, our "predictably irrational" cognitive biases. But few offer effective strategies for overcoming our built-in human failings. But former poker champ (and one-time Penn State PhD candidate) Annie Duke manages both in THINKING IN BETS.

I found the book captivating from the opening pages. She uses Pete Carroll's infamous 2015 Super Bowl play-call, a pass from the one-yard line that the Patriots intercepted with seconds to go, thus winning. The media ripped the call as the worst play call ever. But when seen rationally, the call was smart. There had been 62 passes from the one-yard in that year. Zero had been intercepted. The most likely outcomes were TD or incompletion, which would have stopped the clock allowing Seattle to an additional play over the alternative decision, to hand off the ball.

Duke is clear. That play was the worst OUTCOME of any decisive play in Superbowl history. But the decision, when viewed at a distance and with thoughtful analysis, was a good decision. She calls this focusing on the result instead of a decision made under uncertainty "resulting."

Duke then goes on to use poker as a metaphor for making sound decisions under uncertainty. Along the way, she tackles out mental biases. But using her group of other serious players who analyzed each other's decisions after games ruthlessly as a guide, she provides a common-sense approach for attacking these biases that anyone could use.

Four stars. A nice book with ideas applicable to everyone's private or professional (or poker-playing) life.