Carl Rannaberg's Reviews > Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Really good book about the fundamentals of making smarter decisions. It's just simple and accessible advice backed up with interesting stories and examples and plenty of references to other books the read more. The main point in this book is that the world is almost never black and white. Nothing is 100% certain. Instead of being confident about something you should start thinking about how confident you are about it. Resulters only concentrate on results and doesn’t think that the decisions might have been the correct one based on the odds. They confuse the result with correctness of the decision. When you get a result from your decision you have to first understand whether the reason for the result was skill or luck. After that you can start learning from your experience.