djcb's Reviews > Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Nice book about superforecasting, i.e., the ability to predict world events with an impressively high accuracy. Tetlock has been an academic researcher of the subject for many years, and this book captures what he learned from that.

Much of this is just instrumental rationality - first, the outside-view: getting good priors based on extracting a base-rate from some equivalence class, then relentless Bayesian updating based on incoming evidence. The great forecasters seem to be able to do a great job at that without any explicit calculations.

Anyway, very interesting read. I'll try my hand at predictions some time...