Looks like I’m in the minority as many people rated this highly. I’m not sure why. Some personal peeves:
First, 95% of the book is straight common sensLooks like I’m in the minority as many people rated this highly. I’m not sure why. Some personal peeves:
First, 95% of the book is straight common sense. Yet Dalio presents it as if he’s discovered secrets that nobody else knows.
Second, Dalio misunderstands or misrepresents evolution; it is not the progressing towards some optimal point, it is survival of things that are best adapted to the current environment. If the environment changes, then the most adapted things in the environment may suddenly find themselves maladapted, even if previously optimal. But all of Dalio’s graphs related to his concept of evolution are up and to the right. And it shapes his thinking. Like that his principles will always be true.
Third, for someone who talks so much about the importance of believable experts, why should we even trust him as one? He built one company, in one industry. This doesn’t mean that anything Bridgewater does applies more broadly to other companies and industries. For example, Apple doubles down on secrecy, which is the opposite of Dalio’s transparency, yet it seems to be doing okay. Shouldn’t we look to studies of management practices in thousands of companies, rather than one? Or to entrepreneurs that built multiple businesses with similar approaches? Something better than n = 1? (I would love to read a review of this book by Nassim Taleb.)
Fourth, I would love to see whether Bridgewater actually uses all of the tools and processes Dalio talks about. If so, it sounds like an incredibly bureaucratic organization at risk from more nimble competitors. Having worked in a company that had a similar approach to in-house tools and processes, I’ve seen first-hand how these can actually slow an organization down as competitors adopt newer, slicker tools and processes. For example, imagine a company that built an in-house chat solution, and invested lots of resources in it, and then Slack comes along and enables everyone else with something more powerful. Yet the company is so invested in their tool, they won’t give it up, which actually leads what used to be an advantage to becoming a disadvantage.
The bottom line, for me, is that I think Bridgewater’s approach to investment has merit. At least, in the current environment. Based on performance. Whether it continues to be competitive in future environments is not guaranteed. Evolution doesn’t go in a straight line that moves up and to the right forever. As for Ray Dalio’s management principles and tools, those that are common sense are already widely in use. Those that are unique to Bridgewater may or may not have merit in the current environment, but to know for sure we would need more data than a single company in a single industry can provide. Or a controlled trial. Or something more than one man’s opinion....more
On the one hand, it's an enjoyable read. The format—basically, a series of conversations—is more compelling than you might think. On the other hand, tOn the one hand, it's an enjoyable read. The format—basically, a series of conversations—is more compelling than you might think. On the other hand, the book never seems to pick up enough momentum. I think this is a result of the format. It's hard, for example, to create a lot of excitement and suspense when you have to constrain the narrative to fit a conversational format. It also felt like I never got the big payoff I was hoping for, like a big action sequence, or a big reveal. So by the time I got to the end, it was a bit unsatisfying. ...more
The author has a strong perspective but little fresh evidence. Rather, this is a collection of research studies narrated by the perspective that the bThe author has a strong perspective but little fresh evidence. Rather, this is a collection of research studies narrated by the perspective that the brain is incapable of processing more than one thing a time, that it manufactures rather than presents “reality,” and that there is no unconscious mind influencing our lives—just responses in the moment that are influenced by prior ways we’ve responded to things.
None of this is really controversial. But the author overreaches and contradicts himself. Yes, research shows that the brain does certain tasks sequentially, but does mean it does all tasks sequentially? And yes, the concept of an unconscious mind influencing our decisions may be an inappropriate metaphor, but isn’t the author’s conception of prior decisions creating patterns in the brain that influence future decisions essentially the same thing as an unconscious mind, given that it means we make many decisions without knowing the true reason why? Isn’t he just providing a mechanism for how things we’re not conscious of influence our lives?
Overall, the book summarizes some interesting research, but it’s full of hyperbole and unsubstantiated claims. It would be better if the author put this forward as a true theory, including falsifiable predictions of the theory, rather than writing a manifesto against a straw man of what I sense most people marginally knowledgeable about current neuroscience actually believe....more
Strauss is an excellent writer, and this book is raw, entertaining and enlightening. My only criticism is that the ending wrapped up a little too neatStrauss is an excellent writer, and this book is raw, entertaining and enlightening. My only criticism is that the ending wrapped up a little too neatly and rapidly, given the journey that preceded it. It does feel like the end was edited down to prevent the book from running too long. On the one hand, I appreciate this. On the other, it felt a bit rushed. This said, all in all, one of the best "relationship" books I have read. Just as with The Game, Strauss immerses himself in the subject matter and changes his life. Will be interesting to see where he goes next. Perhaps a book about fatherhood....more
Machine intelligence and automation are major forces that will increasingly shape society and impact the economy. There is increasing buzz about theseMachine intelligence and automation are major forces that will increasingly shape society and impact the economy. There is increasing buzz about these topics, driven in part by influencers like Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking. But there's far more noise and focus on long-term risks such as existential threats to humanity than thoughtful, considered and data-driven analysis of more immediate concerns and opportunities. This book nicely fills that gap. I haven't read their first (Race Against the Machine), but my sense this is an elaboration on the same themes. It covers the key technologies and trends, their economic impact, and thoughts on how to address them at the individual and societal level. I would consider it an essential introduction to economic issues related to machine learning and automation. My only criticisms are that the subject matter gets out of date fast, so some parts of this book already feel slightly behind the times, and that I would appreciate even more in-depth analysis of some of the topics, especially related to policy and what people can do today to guarantee the brightest possible future. But as an intro to the economics of machine intelligence and automation, it's a great read....more
I was looking for books from which I could learn from the wisdom of older, more experienced people. It struck me that many issues I struggle with, othI was looking for books from which I could learn from the wisdom of older, more experienced people. It struck me that many issues I struggle with, others have already dealt with, so why not get ahead by learning from them?
It seems obvious, which suggests to me that we (or maybe just I, but I think it's a societal issue) clearly undervalue older adults in our society. Otherwise, why wouldn't we spend more time picking their brains? Why wasn't I already asking older adults for their thoughts on a regular basis?
So I was excited when I discovered this book. Unfortunately, it turns out that much of the "tried and true advice" is pretty much common sense. If I put a number on it, I would say that 25% of the recommendations were at least moderately unexpected. The rest were in fairly standard motivational quote territory.
I also wondered just how much of the advice reflects the era in which the generation of older adults interviewed grew up. As well as the culture. (The title is explicit about this, stating that it's the knowledge of the "wisest Americans," not the "wisest humans.") Is this universal, or simply wisdom from people born in the early 1900s who spent at least a good portion of their lives in America?
This said, the book is still worth a read. If nothing else, it might inspire me to make better use of the natural resource of wisdom contained in older adults I know, or should get to know....more
I read this because I’m working my way through the top science fiction books of all time, according to Goodreads popularity and ratings. Turns out thaI read this because I’m working my way through the top science fiction books of all time, according to Goodreads popularity and ratings. Turns out that buried in those listings are books like this that are clearly aimed at elementary or middle school students. The book is a caricature of childhood innocence and coming of age. So clearly aimed at prepubescent children. That’s not damning, but I wish the book were more rigorous in exploring the mystery of how the community came to be, and didn’t just gloss over some confusing facts. Like, for example, why couldn’t people in the community see the sun? How was it possible to store memories in a single person and then have them accidentally released? Also, what was the mechanism by which a memory of a sled turned out to be a prediction, and why was there a random sled sitting at the top of a hill in the first place? So, interesting concept, but could have been developed much further and better. ...more
This book was on my radar as a classic for a long time, and I finally got through it this year. I would love to say that it met my high expectations, This book was on my radar as a classic for a long time, and I finally got through it this year. I would love to say that it met my high expectations, but unfortunately it was a challenging read that I often found hard to follow. It was particularly disappointing after I read and loved Siddhartha by Hermann Hesse several months ago, which was also on my to-read list for a long time. This said, the book is touching, especially when you read the afterword, and inspired dreams of taking a long road trip. There are also some noteworthy observations that cut through some of the challenging prose to make an impact. Perhaps this is the type of book you need to read more than once, or discuss in a group. I’m sure I could get more out of it in future should I give it a closer read, but at this point, I simply don’t have the energy. I would rather read Siddhartha again....more
This book tackles an important issue, and helped bring it to a wider audience (especially once Elon Musk recommended it). It also seems to have helpedThis book tackles an important issue, and helped bring it to a wider audience (especially once Elon Musk recommended it). It also seems to have helped spark actions like the creation of OpenAI to address some of the concerns. This said, I feel like many people who purchased it will never read it, as it can be a challenging read. Someone needs to write a more mainstream interpretation. Having read Eliezer Yudkowsky's early writings on the subject, before Bostrom took his position at Oxford, I think many of the themes from the former have been incorporated and expanded by the latter, although the former has a somewhat more playful and entertaining style. Anyway, amazing that people are even talking about AI as much as they are these days, it's a good thing, and this book helped ignite the important conversation. ...more
While you will find some of the research summarized elsewhere, the overall thrust of the book is novel. People commonly believe success leads to happiWhile you will find some of the research summarized elsewhere, the overall thrust of the book is novel. People commonly believe success leads to happiness, but in fact, as this book shows, happiness increases your success. So for those who see things like socializing as nonproductive, this books is a powerful antidote to such workplace cultural myths that actually undermine productivity. Workaholics may look down on prescriptions to achieve happiness directly rather than via material success, but this book shows that the upside of happiness is greater success all around, for you and those around you. So all in all, an important message that may change mindsets. It may be particularly powerful for managers who can have such a dramatic effect on others simply by changing their mood....more
I'm surprising myself by giving this five stars, given that it's a relatively short book that largely reflects one man's observations and opinions. BuI'm surprising myself by giving this five stars, given that it's a relatively short book that largely reflects one man's observations and opinions. But the ratio of value to to words is high, and the originality of the thinking is clear. Thiel is a contrarian, but not just for the sake of it. I think he's mostly right. He has a lot of observations that fall into the "elusive obvious" category (you wonder why more people don't talk about them, but they seem obvious upon Thiel's articulation). He seems genuinely passionate about innovation and maximizing startup success, and has a track record that means you should listen. Overall, this is a well-written (kudos to the ghostwriter), enjoyable and valuable book that I highly recommend to anyone considering a startup or just looking for exposure to some thought-provoking observations and opinions. Even if they're just one man's. ...more
This is a well-written and engaging look at the science of cognitive enhancement. It includes a wide-ranging overview of research and the scientists bThis is a well-written and engaging look at the science of cognitive enhancement. It includes a wide-ranging overview of research and the scientists behind it. Those seeking a practical step-by-step guide to improving cognition, however, might be disappointed. Despite the author self-experimenting, based on his anecdotal self-report it is impossible to separate out which interventions are most likely to work for the average reader. In the end, you will be left to choose which to pursue. If you're already familiar with what's out there, this might not leave you much further ahead from a self-enhancement planning standpoint than when you started. However, if your goal is to gain a richer understanding of research on cognitive enhancement, you won't be disappointed....more
I was leaning toward five stars but had to pull back after completing the book. It’s entertaining and plausible in its dystopic prediction of where ouI was leaning toward five stars but had to pull back after completing the book. It’s entertaining and plausible in its dystopic prediction of where our increasingly algorithmic world might be headed. It also manages to sneak in accurate critiques and even potential solutions, such as universal basic income. I think what made it a 4 rather than 5 for me was the fact that it blended comedy with social criticism in a way that undercut the criticism. It turned what could have been a new 1984 into something easier to dismiss. That’s too bad. The author has a lot of good things to say, but I think people will see some of them as sillier than they are because of how he said it....more
Fan of Carl Sagan. Enjoyed the movie. Read the book many years after watching it. I really want to give it five stars but it honestly feels like more Fan of Carl Sagan. Enjoyed the movie. Read the book many years after watching it. I really want to give it five stars but it honestly feels like more of a 4.5 to me, though I can't put my finger on why. Maybe seeing the movie first tainted it. But that's not to say it wasn't great! It's an engaging story built with real if speculative science that I think does a good job of facilitating dialogue between the science-minded and religiously inclined. I'm impressed that Sagan was able to write such a compelling story with such a diversity of characters. I do wonder how much Ann Druyan contributed to the characters and the story. ...more
A gripping story that has only lost some of its freshness and foresight in the decades since publication. Can't believe I only just got around to readA gripping story that has only lost some of its freshness and foresight in the decades since publication. Can't believe I only just got around to reading it. May prove prescient in many ways now that we're on the verge of real virtual reality with the upcoming launch of Oculus Rift. Compelling characters, satirical while still being dramatic, and a great combination of action and explanation. Learned a lot about the history of language and religion (inspired to read more on the subjects). A bit shocked at how abruptly it ends, but in reviewing the last chapter again, I feel there are enough clues there to infer the details....more
I went into this with no expectations, except that it had good ratings on Goodreads, so I figured it couldn’t be terrible. I haven’t yet read any of tI went into this with no expectations, except that it had good ratings on Goodreads, so I figured it couldn’t be terrible. I haven’t yet read any of the author’s other works. But I was hugely impressed. The story is gripping, the characters are three-dimensional (though they do represent stereotypical cultural values), and the science and technology feels pretty legit—I can’t vouch for this as I’m not a rocket scientist, but based on the author’s acknowledgements, he did some serious research. Overall, highly recommended, especially if you liked The Martian. This is like The Martian in deep space....more
Debated whether to give this 4 or 5 stars. Don't get me wrong, it was excellent. It's a gripping story that's hard to put down, similar to Dark MatterDebated whether to give this 4 or 5 stars. Don't get me wrong, it was excellent. It's a gripping story that's hard to put down, similar to Dark Matter. My only issues with it were: (1) the narrative arc felt very familiar, perhaps a bit too similar to Dark Matter, almost formulaic; (2) towards the end, it felt like there were one too many similar loops to the past; and (3) there were certain elements included to explain how the technology works or might work that strain credulity. This said, I ultimately went with a 5, as it's just such an exciting read....more
I loved this book and it was five stars for me all the way, until what I felt was a disappointing ending that left way too many questions unanswered, I loved this book and it was five stars for me all the way, until what I felt was a disappointing ending that left way too many questions unanswered, with an epilogue that to me veered into the absurd. I’ll do some reading about the book to see what I may have missed, but apart from the ending (and a slow beginning in which you have to acclimatize to much world-building), the book is superb. Great stories and ideas, great characters, and an interesting approach to telling the story from multiple angles. A real work of art. I just wish it had a better ending!...more
This may be a good book if you’re interested in either (a) a history of developments tangentially related to evolution or (b) arguments in favor of liThis may be a good book if you’re interested in either (a) a history of developments tangentially related to evolution or (b) arguments in favor of libertarianism. There is nothing inherently wrong with either. But if you’re interested in a scientific or cosmological or otherwise materially based analysis of how and why evolution appears to shape everything from universes to cultures, look elsewhere. This book’s title is false advertising. It should be called something like “Why Central Planning Sucks and the Free Market Should Be Unleashed Everywhere.”...more
If parts one and two were their own book, it would get a five and be one of my favorite hard science fiction books to date. Part three, unfortunately,If parts one and two were their own book, it would get a five and be one of my favorite hard science fiction books to date. Part three, unfortunately, is bogged down in excessive technical details and descriptions that slow the narrative, though it picks up towards the end. All in all, still an excellent and thought-provoking book that’s worth reading. And still one of my favorites. Just be prepared for a slow start to part three and a slog through some elaborate details and descriptions, if that’s not your thing....more
If you don’t follow news about technologies described in the book, it might be particularly useful. If you do, it will feel like a summary of developmIf you don’t follow news about technologies described in the book, it might be particularly useful. If you do, it will feel like a summary of developments since the authors’ last book, combined with a completely one-sided bias, as well as typos, contradictions, and undeclared conflicts of interest.
For the typos, the book needs a more rigorous copy edit. For the contradictions, the authors will use different numbers for the same statistics sometimes pages apart, and also make contradictory forecasts, like people moving farther from cities as transportation improves (chapter 11) and moving into to cities as urban migration continues (chapter 14). For the conflicts of interest, many chapters seem to be there at least in part to sell speaking engagements to related organizations (such as the chapter on insurance, finance, and real estate), and the afterword notes that one of the author’s investment firms invested in companies mentioned in the book. I don’t recall any disclaimers to this effect.
I’m a technology optimist in the long-term, but this book is too technologically determinist even for me. As we can see as I write this, in the midst of a global pandemic that will alter the course of history, technological development is just as subject to black swans as everything else.
So why four stars? Despite everything I’ve said, the book is informative and well-written (it goes down smooth—sometimes too smooth and simplified, but smooth nonetheless). It’s a useful read to catch up with technology’s continued progression. Just don’t drop your guard. ...more
As someone who works in technology, and startups, I feel that it’s heresy to say anything bad about this book. But it is not a book. It is a collectioAs someone who works in technology, and startups, I feel that it’s heresy to say anything bad about this book. But it is not a book. It is a collection of unedited interviews. This might be useful as archival material, but it does not make for good reading. Having read something similar recently, Tim Ferriss’ Tools of Titans, I know the approach can work, but it requires editing and insight from the author, helping to synthesize common themes, for example. This said, the book is striking for how poorly it actually reflects on entrepreneurs—or, rather, how it shows the extent to which luck and timing rather than foresight play a role in success. Most of the companies discussed in the book either no longer exist or are irrelevant. And despite it being published in 2007, nobody interviewed saw smartphones coming—especially RIM, which is shocking. So as a piece of archival data that helps provide a reality check to claims that successful entrepreneurs are good at predicting the future, it succeeds. But otherwise, unless you’re working on a related research project, just read Paul Graham’s free essays online....more
The book starts strong, and feels as if it will deliver on its promise. But midway through, it deviates from exploring addictive technology in generalThe book starts strong, and feels as if it will deliver on its promise. But midway through, it deviates from exploring addictive technology in general to focusing almost exclusively on video games and game mechanics, only tangentially connecting this to social media, email, work, and other modern addictions. The book also fails to talk at all about the “business” of addiction, the financial reasons why companies make their products addictive: to capture attention and sell it to advertisers. Without an exploration of the financial rationale for addictive products, how can we truly hope to address this problem? Bottom line: companies have a financial motivation to keep us hooked on their products, and expecting people to fight this successfully is unlikely to work, if the case of food marketing and obesity serve any example. So, it’s an interesting and well-written book (I finished it in three days), but lacks the depth needed to really get at the root of what’s driving addictive products, and hence how we can deal with them as a society as well as individuals....more
I feel bad leaving a 3-star review because I liked the book, and found it well-written and comprehensive. I did not, however, learn much that was new I feel bad leaving a 3-star review because I liked the book, and found it well-written and comprehensive. I did not, however, learn much that was new to me. In addition, the book seems quite dated in not addressing some of the tremendous recent advances in applying neural networks, such as advances by DeepMind (AlphaGo, AlphaZero, AlphaFold, AlphaStar, etc.), and progress with reinforcement learning. Perhaps if Kaku updates the book with a new edition it will add more value....more
This was both an enlightening and frustrating read. It was enlightening because it changed my understanding of debt and money, and their origins; broaThis was both an enlightening and frustrating read. It was enlightening because it changed my understanding of debt and money, and their origins; broadened my thinking about economics; and deepened my understanding of history. But it was frustrating because it's often nonlinear, sometimes rambling, and poorly edited—it's full of issues like redundancies, typos, and even what I believe to be an editor's comment left within square brackets on one page. This is unfortunate, because a tighter and more linear or otherwise stepwise approach to the same information, combined with a more accessible writing style, could broaden the audience. And the more people who read this, the more people will think critically about the world's current financial and political structures. So I find myself hoping for a documentary version, to distill the ideas for a broader audience. ...more
I know it’s a classic, and it does contain ideas that are ahead of its time regarding the conundrum of getting intelligent machines to do what’s best I know it’s a classic, and it does contain ideas that are ahead of its time regarding the conundrum of getting intelligent machines to do what’s best for humans. But, as much as I admire Asimov, the stories and language feel dated. I think some of the core ideas have held up, and it’s still worth reading as the inspiration for so much that followed. But now I need a break to read some more modern sci-fi....more
Way better than I expected. A compelling story that uses an alien visitation premise to explore the world’s current obsession with social media, and bWay better than I expected. A compelling story that uses an alien visitation premise to explore the world’s current obsession with social media, and being famous through it, and how this reflects and affects failings in interpersonal relationships. I would have voted it higher but some of the plot elements regarding the aliens are weak, and require too much suspension of disbelief and, frankly, logic....more
I was pleasantly surprised by this book. I didn’t have high expectations, as I felt Silver had received a lot of media attention, yet had failed in soI was pleasantly surprised by this book. I didn’t have high expectations, as I felt Silver had received a lot of media attention, yet had failed in some predictions spectacularly, like the recent US federal election. But I was impressed by the depth and breadth of the subject matter, and by the research and reporting. This is not simply a regurgitation of existing papers. There is some significant journalistic effort. In addition, there is a healthy skepticism about our ability to make accurate forecasts given the uncertainty in the world. This said, this is not a work that will function to help data scientists do their jobs, from a tactical perspective. It is not a technical manual. However, the approaches described to increase the accuracy of forecasts, and the cautions described to prevent bad forecasts, should help every reader be better at probabilistic prediction....more
Maybe I’ve just been reading too much Taleb recently, but I found this book to be the weakest entry in the incerto. Taleb tends to ramble, but these rMaybe I’ve just been reading too much Taleb recently, but I found this book to be the weakest entry in the incerto. Taleb tends to ramble, but these rambles are usually minor (and enjoyable) diversions from a focused theme. In this book, unlike the others, his return to the theme of “skin in the game” usually felt forced. The concept and its implications were not as central or clearly articulated as the concepts and implications in Fooled By Randomness, The Black Swan, and Antifragile. Perhaps this is because skin in the game is really just a property of antifragile things and hence doesn’t deserve a book-length treatment; when stakeholders have skin in the game, the things in which they have skin tend to be more antifragile and less prone to Black Swans because stakeholders take fewer risks whose repercussions are unknown (and likely to, at some point, be bad). ...more
I can understand why some people like it, and there are certainly things to like. But it’s not what I was expecting. Think of it as a book of spirituaI can understand why some people like it, and there are certainly things to like. But it’s not what I was expecting. Think of it as a book of spiritual tweets, some with great depth that will make you think and rethink, others that are simple and forgettable. If you’re looking for narrative or deep spiritual discussion, this is not it. But there are occasional gems....more
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